2024-08-11
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Reporter of China Business Network: Xiao Ruidong Editor of China Business Network: Zhao Yun
In the past trading week (August 5-9), the global capital market experienced considerable volatility. After the epic "Black Monday", some stock markets have recovered in the subsequent trading days.
However, the Japanese stock market, the "source" of the storm, has not yet fully recovered its lost ground.
In terms of A-shares, although the declines of major indexes were not large, the recovery efforts were not satisfactory.
On the one hand, the previous "both hot" market of bonus assets and short-term continuous gains has gradually fallen into a situation of both being cold since last week. In particular, the retreat of short-term gains has brought the current market sentiment to a freezing point.
On the other hand, the market turnover has continued to shrink this week, and even hit a new low of more than 560 billion yuan on Friday (actually a new low in the past two years). Due to this limitation, the market is obviously weak even if it wants to go up.
Why has the volume hit the bottom at this time? Can the rule of "low volume means low price" come true soon?
In this review, we will focus on analyzing this issue.
There is a lack of incremental funds, and some incentives can be found on the market, such as:
(1) The money-making effect weakened, and short-term funds withdrew
on MondayTenda TechnologyAfter the break, the length of consecutive boards dropped from 6 boards to 4 boards on Friday.
Friday,Aerospace TechnologyOne word limit down;Kerry、Great Wall ElectricThe stock price hit the ceiling and floor during the trading session.
The number of stocks that rose continued to weaken after recovering on Tuesday, while the number of stocks that hit the daily limit bottomed out on Friday.
From the perspective of sectors, concepts related to liquor, real estate, and planting were also relatively active this week; online car-hailing, precious metals, and chips had the largest declines.
Some people believe that in the second half of this week, funds have begun to actively try to flow back to some low-level sectors. Although the continuity is relatively general, this can also be regarded as a positive signal of the current market. The current market has not yet come out of the new main line with consensus, so some funds may choose to flow back next week to play the anti-nuclear game, but only a few will succeed in the end. Most of the retreating stocks will fall again after a short-term rebound. So it is not necessary to participate in such a game.
(2) Northbound capital outflow
Wind data showed that northbound funds had a net selling of 7.765 billion yuan on Friday, with a total net selling of 14.76 billion yuan this week.
It is worth noting thatAfter this week, northbound funds have turned from net inflows to outflows this year.The latest data shows a total net sale of 1.743 billion yuan.
Weekly performance:Dongshan Precision、Kweichow Moutai、Zijin MiningThe net purchase amounts were 754 million yuan, 714 million yuan and 674 million yuan respectively.
On the selling side, Midea Group,CATLThis week's net selling amounts were 1.003 billion yuan and 968 million yuan respectively. It is worth noting that since July 31, CATL has been net sold for 8 consecutive trading days.
However, under the momentum of northbound selling, Cinda Securities found that as of Friday, the exposure of northbound funds to dividend style was 0.83, and the value last month was 0.76, which meansThe weight of dividends in northbound holdings has increased significantly compared with the previous period.
CICC said that in the period of economic headwinds, when the growth style and prosperity are both uncertain, the dividend strategy of investing in traditional and mature enterprises has undoubtedly become a rare "safe haven" for funds. Under the influence of the investment style dominated by "safety" and "defense", the dividend strategy still has long-term allocation value.
In addition to the reasons that can be seen on the market, according to the comprehensive brokerage research reports,There are also concerns about tight liquidity in the entire market in August.
As government bond issuance begins to increase, funding is converging marginally.Huaxi SecuritiesAccording to statistics, the net payment for government bonds this week totaled 476.7 billion yuan, the highest in the past ten weeks. It was mainly distributed from Wednesday to Friday during the week, and the money market interest rate also turned upward from the low point on Monday and Tuesday.
The central bank withdrew a net 759.76 billion yuan in the open market. The amount of funds released decreased day by day from Monday to Wednesday, and then as the money market tightened, the amount of funds released increased on Thursday and Friday. However, the overall scale of the release was not large.
When the government issues more bonds, it means that the demand for funds in the market increases. If the central bank does not take corresponding measures, it may temporarily absorb market liquidity and lead to a tightening of market funds.
Caitong Securities' previous research report pointed out:
On the one hand, the size of each key-term ordinary treasury bond in July dropped significantly, which may be mainly to make way for the concentrated issuance of local government bonds. The issuance of treasury bonds in August may continue this trend. According to the third quarter treasury bond issuance plan, we expect the issuance of treasury bonds in August to be about 1.02 trillion yuan; on the other hand, the Political Bureau meeting in July once again mentioned "accelerating the issuance and use of local government bonds". Referring to the issuance plans disclosed by various places, we expect the scale of local government bond issuance in August to be about 1.03 trillion yuan.
Overall, the scale of government bond issuance in August was around 2.05 trillion yuan. After excluding special government bonds that are likely to mature and be renewed, the net financing scale of government bonds in August was about 1.5 trillion yuan, and supply pressure has increased significantly.
What are the risks of tightening funds?
From the perspective of supply and demand of funds, considering the increase in the scale of net supply of government bonds and fiscal revenue being lower than expenditure, we estimate that government deposits may increase by about 715 billion yuan month-on-month, which will put certain pressure on liquidity; credit supply will rebound in August, and the scale of bank reserve requirements may increase by about 87 billion yuan; while the impact of foreign exchange deposits and money issuance on liquidity is expected to be limited.
In general, excluding the factors of reverse repurchase and MLF maturity, the liquidity gap in August was about 850 billion yuan. The core pressure came from the increase in government bond supply, so the money market may converge marginally.
However, according to the Shanghai Securities News, despite the issuance of government bonds, August has been the lowest point of the central interest rate in the second half of the year for the past three years. Usually, August is neither a big tax payment month nor a cross-season pressure, and the central interest rate is slightly lower than July in history. Therefore, industry insiders analyzed that from the perspective of seasonal laws, if there is no exogenous shock and the central bank actively tightens the money market, the money market is expected to remain relatively loose in August this year.
August is usually a month of fiscal net expenditure, and fiscal expenditure will supplement liquidity. According to Guohai Securities' calculations, the average net expenditure of public finance in the same period from 2019 to August 2023 was 515.7 billion yuan. The agency believes that the above historical average data can be used to estimate the intensity of fiscal net expenditure in August 2024, and the allocation of this fiscal expenditure may form a liquidity supplement of the same scale.
First, there will be a lot of economic data released next week (August 12-August 18), concentrated on Thursday, including the national economic operation and July housing price data of 70 cities.
Overseas, on August 13, the UK will release June unemployment rate data and the US will release July PPI data; on August 14, the US and the UK will release July CPI data; on August 15, the UK and Japan will release second quarter GDP data.
At the market level, according to Wind statistics, a total of 49 A-share companies will gradually release restricted shares next week, with a total of 4.029 billion shares released. Based on the closing price on August 9, the total market value of the release is 51.776 billion yuan. The top three companies in terms of market value of the release are:Haitong SecuritiesThe top three stocks with the most shares released are Minmetals New Energy (887 million shares), Haitong Securities (781 million shares), and Guangsteel Gas (308 million shares).
Next week, the People's Bank of China will have 21.29 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing in the open market, of which 670 million yuan, 620 million yuan, 0 yuan, 7.1 billion yuan, and 12.9 billion yuan will mature from Monday to Friday. In addition, 401 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Thursday.
According to a research report by West China Securities, the tax period is approaching next week, and the net payment of government bonds will rise to more than 600 billion.
Specifically, August 15 (Thursday) is the August tax deadline, and the tax payment period is on August 16. Judging from the situation in previous years, August is not a big tax payment month, and the tax payment scale during the tax period is about 600 billion to 800 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds reached 613.45 billion yuan, the highest since the beginning of this year, and it was mainly concentrated on Thursday and Friday during the week, with 400 billion yuan and 70 billion yuan respectively; it coincided with the tax period, and 401 billion yuan of MLF matured on Thursday. The combination of multiple factors may bring temporary pressure to the capital market.
He believes that the key to whether the money market can be stabilized lies in the scale and form of the central bank's injection. It is expected that the central bank's reverse repurchase injection will increase, and attention will be paid to the MLF injection volume and the possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut.
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