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A major reversal! New energy, good news is coming!

2024-08-09

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There was sudden good news about China's automobile industry.



On August 7, the General Administration of Customs of China announced the import and export data of my country's goods trade in July 2024. The data showed that in July this year, the export value of China's automobiles increased by 14.32% month-on-month, while in June this year, the export value of complete vehicles was US$8.73 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 17.16%. Analysts pointed out that the month-on-month growth rate turned from negative to positive, achieving a "great reversal", and China's automobile exports restarted the "accelerator" in July.


In the first half of this year, China's automobile exports ranked first in the world. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Chinese automakers exported 2.793 million vehicles overseas in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 31%; data released by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association showed that Japan's automobile exports in the first half of 2024 were 2.01 million vehicles. This means that in the first half of 2024, China's automobile industry once again surpassed Japan.


At present, China's new energy vehicle industry is at a critical turning point, and exploring overseas markets has become an inevitable choice for the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. Analysts pointed out that in the face of overseas barriers, if Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers want to become stronger and bigger in the international market, they must adopt flexible strategies in international market expansion.


Major reversal


On August 7, the General Administration of Customs of China announced the import and export data of my country's goods trade in July 2024. The data showed that in terms of RMB, China's imports in July increased by 6.6% year-on-year to 1,536.95 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 3.7%; exports in July increased by 6.5% year-on-year to 2,138.85 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 2.1%.


In terms of US dollars, China's imports in July increased by 7.2% year-on-year to US$215.91 billion, compared with -2.3% in the previous month and an increase of 3.4% from the previous month; exports in July increased by 7% year-on-year to US$300.56 billion, compared with 8.6% in the previous month and a decrease of 2.3% from the previous month.


In the first seven months of 2024, the total value of my country's import and export of goods was 24.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. Among them, exports were 14.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; imports were 10.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%; and the trade surplus was 3.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6%.


In terms of US dollars, in the first seven months, my country's total import and export value was 3.5 trillion US dollars, an increase of 3.5%. Among them, exports were 2.01 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4%; imports were 1.49 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%; and the trade surplus was 518 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.9%.


Among them, China's automobile export data achieved a "significant reversal", becoming one of the focuses of market attention. Data showed that in July this year, China's automobile export value increased by 14.32% month-on-month, while in June this year, the export value of complete vehicles was US$8.73 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 17.16%.


Analysts pointed out that the month-on-month growth rate turned from negative to positive, achieving a "great reversal", and China's automobile exports restarted the "accelerator" in July.


According to the data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, my country exported 8.41 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, accounting for 59% of my country's total exports. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were 815.88 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year; integrated circuits were 640.91 billion yuan, an increase of 25.8% year-on-year; automobiles were 462.86 billion yuan, an increase of 20.7% year-on-year; mobile phones were 454.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.3% year-on-year.


Lv Daliang, Director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said that since the beginning of this year, my country's economic operation has been generally stable and has made progress, and foreign trade has maintained a stable and positive trend. In the first seven months, my country's import and export scale hit a record high for the same period in history. In July, imports and exports increased both year-on-year and month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate remained above 5% for four consecutive months.


Surpassing Japan again


According to a recent report by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, China's automobile exports ranked first in the world in the first half of this year.


According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Chinese automakers exported 2.793 million vehicles overseas in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 31%. Data released by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association on July 31 showed that Japan's automobile exports in the first half of 2024 were slightly lower than the same period last year, at 2.01 million vehicles.


This means that after surpassing Japan to become the world's largest automobile exporter in 2023, China's automobile industry surpassed Japan again in the first half of 2024. In 2023, China surpassed Japan for the first time to become the world's largest automobile exporter with 4.91 million automobile exports, while the latter exported 4.42 million vehicles in the same period.


According to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Japan's automobile exports to North America and other markets increased against the backdrop of the depreciation of the yen, with passenger cars increasing by 2% to 1,830,675 units. However, overall exports fell by 0.3% to 2,017,660 units, with negative year-on-year growth in automobile exports in the first half of the year.


In the first half of 2024, China's exports of new energy vehicles reached 605,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. At present, China's new energy vehicle global market share is as high as 60%, and it is accelerating towards globalization.


In terms of export destinations, the top five regions in my country's total vehicle exports in the first half of this year were Russia (478,500 vehicles), Mexico (226,400 vehicles), Brazil (171,100 vehicles), the UAE (142,000 vehicles), and Belgium (138,900 vehicles). The top five markets for new energy vehicle exports were Brazil, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Thailand, and the Philippines.


A critical turning point


On August 7, preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association showed that from July 1 to 31, the passenger car market retailed 1.729 million vehicles, down 2% year-on-year and 2% from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales so far this year reached 11.568 million vehicles, up 2% year-on-year. From July 1 to 31, the national passenger car manufacturers wholesaled 1.956 million vehicles, down 5% year-on-year and 10% from the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale sales so far this year reached 13.708 million vehicles, up 4% year-on-year.


Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles grew against the trend. According to preliminary statistics from the China Passenger Car Association, from July 1 to 31, the new energy retail sales of passenger cars in the market reached 879,000, up 37% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. The cumulative retail sales so far this year reached 4.991 million, up 34% year-on-year. From July 1 to 31, the new energy wholesale sales of passenger car manufacturers nationwide reached 955,000, up 30% year-on-year and down 3% month-on-month. The cumulative wholesale sales so far this year reached 5.575 million, up 30% year-on-year.


Based on this calculation, in July this year, the retail penetration rate of new energy has exceeded 50%, reaching 50.84%.


At present, China's new energy vehicle industry is at a critical turning point. As the market becomes saturated, product homogeneity becomes increasingly serious, the domestic market space is gradually shrinking, and competition among enterprises becomes increasingly fierce, which directly leads to limited profit margins and slowed growth. In this context, opening up overseas markets has become an inevitable choice for the development of China's new energy vehicle industry.


Analysts pointed out that in the face of overseas barriers, if Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturers want to become stronger and bigger in the international market, they must adopt flexible strategies in international market expansion, and establishing production bases overseas may be a step they have to take.


Many Chinese automakers have begun to seek new overseas solutions. In Hungary, BYD, Great Wall Motors and other automakers have formulated plans to build factories, and BYD's Hungarian factory is scheduled to start production before 2026; in Spain, Chery Automobile will start production in a former Nissan factory in Barcelona with its local partners in the fourth quarter of this year.


Professor Dudenhöffer, director of the Bochum Institute for Automotive Research in Germany and known as the "Godfather of Automobiles", previously said that China's automobile exports are expected to continue to increase in 2025. Judging from the development experience of other countries, once automobile exports reach a certain scale, it makes sense to build factories abroad. This helps companies reduce risks caused by exchange rate fluctuations or trade restrictions and tariffs. He believes that more Chinese automakers will set up factories in Europe in the next 10 years.

Editor: Tactical Heng

Proofread by: Tao Qian


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