The price has skyrocketed! Many people eat it often, and some dealers say "even if you have money, you can't get the goods"
2024-08-09
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A serious accident recently occurred at BASF, a global chemical giant. The company's large chemical plant in Ludwigshafen, Germany, exploded and caught fire on July 29, local time. The explosion shocked the global chemical industry. After nearly a week of waiting, there is new information.
On the evening of August 7, BASF said that the Ludwigshafen plant was closed due to the fire accident on July 29.This will cause damage to the device and will require some maintenanceProduction and supply of vitamin products are discontinued, and delivery is subject to force majeure.
BASF is one of the world's major vitamin suppliers, and its explosion has spread to the vitamin industry chain.. Recently, the domestic prices of vitamin A (VA) and vitamin E (VE) have risen sharply.
According to Baichuan Yingfu data, on August 7, the market prices of vitamin A and vitamin E were 185 yuan/kg and 125 yuan/kg, respectively, up 92.7% and 30.9% since the accident on July 29. Currently, some manufacturers are quoting 320 yuan/kg and 150 yuan/kg for vitamin A and vitamin E, respectively, and it is expected that product prices will rise further.
On August 8, the vitamin sector exploded. As of today's close,The Wind Vitamin Concept Index rose 7.17%, and stocks such as Minsheng Health, Northeast Pharmaceutical, Guangji Pharmaceutical, Shengda Biopharma, and Zhejiang Pharmaceutical hit their daily limit.
Explosion spreads across the supply chain
The supply of VA, VE and other products will be interrupted
According to media reports, German chemical giant BASF announced on its official website on August 7 that due to the fire at a device in Ludwigshafen, Germany, BASF Europe (also on behalf of its affected affiliates) announced that from now until further notice, the supply of some vitamin A, vitamin E, carotenoid products and some fragrance raw materials products has been affected by force majeure. The fragrance raw materials involved include ionone, leucoderma, DL-menthol, rose oxide, ethyl linalool, nerolidol and isophytol.
The unit where the fire occurred produces aromatic raw materials and precursors for the production of vitamin A, vitamin E and carotenoids.All injured employees left the medical center that evening. The incident did not cause air, water or soil contamination. BASF's environmental monitoring vehicles did not detect any products inside or outside the plant. Relevant government departments have been informed of the incident.
The accident caused damage to the equipment, resulting in production suspension and supply interruption of the above products.BASF said cleaning, inspection and repair work on the unit has begun.
Low-price goods are hard to find
Domestic manufacturers would rather breach the contract than cancel the order
Dealer: Contract is like waste paper
According to media reports on August 8,“Based on BASF's market share in the vitamins sector,The interruption of supply will have a significant impact on the global vitamin supply and demand structure. "An industry insider told reporters. At the same time, an industry researcher told reporters:The impact on the industry exceeds market expectations!Prior to this, based on BASF's announcement, the market was generally optimistic, and many people were taking a wait-and-see attitude. However, judging from the latest announcement, short-term resumption of production is no longer hopeful, which will have a significant impact on the supply of related vitamin products."
“It will be even harder to find the goods!”On the evening of August 7, after seeing the news of BASF's supply cut, a large vitamin distributor in East China told e Company reporters:"There is no doubt that the prices of VA, VE and other products will continue to rise sharply."It is worth mentioning that on the eve of BASF's official announcement of supply suspension (August 6), the above-mentioned distributors had already felt the market's reluctance to sell and complained bitterly during an interview with reporters:"Now, the contract is like a piece of waste paper. The manufacturer finds all kinds of reasons not to ship the goods. Even if you pay, you can't get the goods."
It is understood that the above vitamin distributor originally signed a contract with a domestic vitamin manufacturer for about 50 tons, and the contract price was 92 yuan/kg.The manufacturer's account manager has verbally notified us that either the order must be cancelled and the manufacturer must pay liquidated damages, or delivery must be delayed.
For example,According to the manufacturer, the 10% compensation for the 50-ton VA supply contract is 460,000 yuan in liquidated damages. However, in the current VA market, some transaction prices have reached more than 200 yuan per kilogram. Even if the manufacturer pays 460,000 yuan in liquidated damages, it can still make more than 4.2 million yuan."If the price rises to 300-500 yuan per kilogram, their breach of contract cost will be even lower."
During the interview, the above vitamin distributors received calls one after another. Judging from the content of their communications, they were basically customers and peers looking for goods.
It is understood that before BASF officially announced the supply cut on the evening of August 7, although the market was generally in a wait-and-see attitude, prices had already begun to rise sharply. Among them, some VA reference transaction prices rose to 180-190 yuan/kg; VE reference transaction prices were 120-130 yuan/kg.
andBefore the BASF explosion, on July 28, the reference transaction price of VA market was 92 yuan/kg, and the reference transaction price of VE market was 93 yuan/kg.
On August 7, the reporter also learned from multiple channels that a well-known domestic vitamin manufacturer has recently re-quoted its prices. Before the accident, the company's VA and VE prices were based on market conditions, at 90 to 95 yuan per kilogram.andAt present, the price of VA has reached 320 yuan/kg, and the price of VE has reached 150 yuan/kg.Among them, VA quotations have risen by 237%-256%.
According to media reports, on August 8, Baichuan Yingfu released the latest news showing thatMainstream vitamin A manufacturers stop selling in the domestic marketSign the stop quotation, and most traders in the market do not quote.Some reference order prices have risen to 190-220 yuan per kilogram.Low-price goods are hard to find，Some sellers who are reluctant to sell have raised their quotes to more than 220 yuan/kg, and the overall transaction of new orders remains to be seen; mainstream vitamin E manufacturers have stopped signing and reporting in the domestic market, and most traders in the market also do not quote. Some reference prices have risen to 135 yuan-145 yuan/kg. Low-priced sources are hard to find, and some sellers have raised their quotes to 150 yuan-160 yuan/kg. The overall transaction of new orders remains to be seen.
According to media reports, whether vitamin prices will continue to rise and whether vitamin supply will continue to be tight,There are still many different voices in the industry。Chen Rong, a feed additive analyst at Shanghai Steel Union, said, "The main problem with vitamins now is that prices are very high, but there is no stable transaction, and the expectations of buyers and sellers vary greatly.To some extent, it can be said that there is a price but no demand.Downstream feed manufacturers have basically completed their stocking plans for this year, and their purchases of vitamins are mainly based on basic needs. The impact of price fluctuations on the domestic demand side is not obvious.
source: Daily Economic News, Shanghai Securities News, Chengshi Interactive, China Securities Journal, etc.
