Canada's 'middle power' diplomacy no longer works
2024-08-08
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An article published on August 6 in the US Capitol Hill newspaper, titled: Canada's "middle power" diplomacy doesn't work in China In Chinese historical stories, the king of Yelang (a small kingdom in southwestern China during the Han Dynasty) is portrayed as a ruler who thinks he is the best in the world, but this is not the case. The moral of the story is that the king overestimated the importance of himself and his kingdom in the world order at that time.This has become a cautionary tale in Chinese culture, reminding people not to be narrow-minded, arrogant, and think that their little kingdom is the center of "the world."This famous story aptly captures the essence of Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly's recent visit to China.Faced with the opportunity to engage with her Chinese counterpart, Canada’s foreign minister has two choices: She can spend her time negotiating the practical issues at the heart of the breakdown in Sino-Canadian relations, or she can pretend that Ottawa has important views on global and regional security issues and imagine that the Chinese government would be interested in listening and perhaps even influencing its foreign and security policy.Bilateral economic and diplomatic relations have become strained in recent years, in part because of Canada’s accusations that China meddled in its elections. If the purpose of Joly’s visit to Beijing was to repair relations as much as possible, her meeting with the Chinese foreign minister was time well spent.But if Joly spends her limited schedule in Beijing talking about “complex global and regional security issues,” she will be wasting her time. Why? Because on global security issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Gaza conflict, Canada’s traditional “middle power” diplomacy is no longer effective. She will be wasting her time.In today’s increasingly multipolar world, Canada’s “middle power” diplomacy has been drowned out by the clamor of great power competition. The rise of China, the resurgence of Russia, and the assertiveness of other regional powers have created a complex and challenging international environment in which Canada’s traditional approach is no longer suitable for promoting its interests.In addition, Canada’s “middle power” status has been further weakened by the decline in the influence of multilateral institutions, which were once an important arena for Canada to conduct “middle power” diplomacy. The rise of nationalism and protectionism, coupled with the growing assertiveness of non-Western powers, has weakened the effectiveness of traditional multilateral forums. As a result, Canada’s ability to influence global outcomes through multilateral cooperation has largely weakened.Similarly, on regional security issues, Canada simply does not have the status, influence, and moral authority to engage in serious negotiations with China on Indo-Pacific security issues. Canada is not a significant Indo-Pacific regional security player. Or, to put it another way, Canada is not, and will likely never be, an Indo-Pacific “middle power” in the current sense, i.e., a power that has stronger economic and military capabilities relative to other Indo-Pacific countries because of its roots in the Indo-Pacific region, or a country with an Indo-Pacific civilizational history and cultural pedigree.In this context, anything Foreign Minister Joly says to his Chinese counterpart on global or regional security issues is unlikely to have the slightest impact on China’s grand strategy, regional policy or global military posture.So, unlike in the heyday of Canada’s past as a “middle power” diplomacy, in today’s world, no one – least of all Beijing – pays attention to what Ottawa says on global and regional security issues.It is true that Canadians will find this difficult to accept. However, if they really want to advance and defend their national interests in the real world, they must recognize and accept this cruel reality. If they still hold on to the old idea that Canada is an indispensable "middle power" that can influence the current situation on the international stage, it will only be wishful thinking.Hopefully, all of Joly’s time in Beijing will be spent addressing key bilateral issues that are relevant to Canada’s own national interests. Hopefully, she does so without sounding like a foreign minister of the Yelang Kingdom. (The author is Andrew Latham, professor of international relations at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota, translated by Qiao Heng)▲
