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Today, at the beginning of June, I have repeatedly emphasized in our live broadcast that we must look at the transaction data of key cities across the country in July this year.

The transaction volume in key cities across the country in July this year will determine the overall real estate market trend in the second half of the year.

Because July is the first off-season month since the market rescue in May.

In a normal real estate market year, transaction volume in the off-season months will decline significantly compared to June and the second quarter.

To save the market, we need confidence, courage and expectations. It requires a concerted effort and the ability to meet challenges head-on.

The most frightening thing is the ups and downs. After the data is pulled up, if it drops once, it will take a lot of effort to pull it up next time.

After the 5.17 new policy threw out the trump card combination of 15% down payment + no lower limit on mortgage interest rate, the real estate market's bottom line can be firmly stabilized as long as the transaction volume in the real estate market remains at the transaction level in the second quarter of this year for four consecutive months in May, June, July and August.

There is no need to worry about the transaction volume in May and June. These two months are the peak period of the real estate market and the golden period for the rescue effect to be exerted. The transaction volume data is bound to be very good.

The month most likely to see a decline in trading volume is July.

July and August are a critical period, and the property market faces a tough battle in these two months.

Now, the results of the first tough battle are out, and the results are a bit unexpected.

We can look at the new and second-hand housing transaction volumes in July in the national real estate market observation window cities.

There are a total of 5 window cities for observing the national real estate market.Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou.

Therefore, these five cities together form a window for observing the Chinese real estate market. Their real estate market trends are likely to be ahead of other cities in the country.

In July, the transaction volumes of new and second-hand houses in these five cities showed quite different performances.

Beijing's data turned positive across the board, with both new and second-hand home transaction volumes in July better than in June. New home transaction volumes increased by 20% and second-hand home transaction volumes increased by 15% compared to June.

In Shanghai, the transaction volume of second-hand houses once again exceeded 20,000 units. The transaction volume of new and second-hand houses was not as good as in June, but it was not much different from the transaction volume in May.

In Shenzhen, the transaction volumes of new and second-hand houses turned positive across the board. The transaction volume of new houses increased by 3% compared with June, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses was 5,381 units, the highest point since February 2021.

The transaction volume of new homes in Guangzhou was 5,188 units, which was not as good as the data in June, but not much different from the transaction volume of 5,283 units in May. The most noteworthy is the second-hand housing in Guangzhou. The transaction volume of second-hand housing in Guangzhou exceeded 10,000 units, reaching the highest point since May 2021.

In Hangzhou, the transaction volume of both new and second-hand houses was lower than in June. The transaction volume of second-hand houses remained at more than 8,000 units, while the transaction volume of new houses fell by 35% compared with June.

We can get several pieces of information from the transaction volume of these five window cities:

1. July, a low-season month, achieved the same results as a peak-season month, and China's real estate market won the first tough battle.

2. Although the short-term and rapid efficacy of the 517 new policy has been exhausted, it has significantly improved the condition.

3. After three years of decline, China's real estate market has finally reached the turning point of bottom friction.

July and August of this year may be the turning point for China's real estate market.

The most dangerous moment has passed.

As long as we get through August and pass this turning point, the trend of the real estate market may change.

It is not just window cities that have seen changes in July data compared to the second quarter of this year. Some key cities have also seen changes in July transaction volume compared to July last year.Stop falling and start rising.

There are several cities that need special attention in terms of new home sales in July this year:

Xi’an, 1% higher than last July;

Wuhan, 22% higher than last July;

Foshan, 15% higher than last July;

Nanjing, 12% higher than this June and 14% higher than last July;

Changchun is 13% higher than June this year and 11% higher than July last year.

These are all cities where the transaction volume in July this year increased compared with July last year. Especially in Nanjing and Changchun, the transaction volume of new homes in July was not only higher than that in July last year, but also higher than the transaction volume in June, the peak month of performance.

A very important data on second-hand housing prices has also declined.

In July 2024, the number of second-hand residential listings in 14 key cities monitored was 2.29 million.A month-on-month decrease of 0.8%.

▲The number of listings in key cities across the country

The year-on-year data is actually more important than the month-on-month data. The month-on-month data looks at short-term transaction fluctuations, while the year-on-year data looks at the ups and downs of the trend.

Real estate is not a market that fluctuates daily like the stock market. As a less flexible market, the trend of real estate plays a decisive role in the rise and fall of housing prices.

In July, the transaction volume of new houses in some cities increased year-on-year, and this data will become more obvious in August.

By the second half of this year, you will see that the transaction volumes of new and second-hand houses in key cities have increased significantly compared with the same months last year.

There is only one reason.

After July last year, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses in key cities across the country was really poor.

The sharp drop in housing prices in key cities across the country occurred in the second half of last year, as did the rapid shrinkage of new and second-hand housing.

In the second half of last year, the transaction volume of both new and second-hand houses was not very good.

The base of transaction volume is relatively low. As long as the policies are slightly improved in the second half of this year, there will be no problem in the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses exceeding the same period last year.

The low base of new and second-hand housing transaction volumes in the second half of last year has provided the impetus for the second half of this year to surpass the transaction data in the second half of last year.

If starting from August, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses every month can exceed the same month last year, then something very interesting will happen.

Changes in year-on-year data will quietly change real estate market expectations.

We must admit one thing: reality and expectations confirm and reinforce each other.

If the actual real estate market data deteriorates, expectations will deteriorate, and the actual data caused by expectations will be even worse.

If the actual real estate market data improves, expectations will improve little by little, and the reality influenced by expectations will improve little by little.

Imagine a picture like this: after August, the transaction volumes of new and second-hand houses in key cities are stronger than last year every month.

Official media and self-media reported the data extensively.

After three or four months of this, the prices of second-hand houses slowly stopped falling, and the special offers from developers in the new home market were not as enthusiastic and sincere as before.

When housing prices stop falling, and even a few high-quality new and second-hand houses see a slight rebound in prices, what will the home buyers who have been waiting in the market think?

Homebuyers who have been waiting may not wait any longer, because it is better to buy when prices are high than to buy when prices are low, and few people can fight against human nature of following the crowd.

The decline in the property market in recent years has accumulated a wave of home buyers with unused purchasing power in the market.

This group of people are not not buying houses, but they are not buying houses now because house prices have fallen.Their purchasing power will be released in droves when house prices stop falling.

Just like the two months when the epidemic was just relaxed, this wave of people entering the market will push up trading volume again.

So, looking at the present from the perspective of the next few months, we are at the turning point of China's real estate market.

China's real estate market has just passed the dangerous period, and the remaining months are waiting for the real bottoming out and recovery.

Which cities will recover first? We have emphasized this many times in the live broadcast.

The recovering cities and regions must be in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.

The data for Shanghai, the leader in the Yangtze River Delta, and Shenzhen, the leader in the Pearl River Delta, have already demonstrated this.

In fact, we have been investigating and observing the Greater Bay Area and the Yangtze River Delta since we started our investigation in May. The real estate market in these two regions is very different from last year, and every month is different. It is also hotter than the real estate market in other cities across the country.

The heat in some cities has already sent out extremely clear signals.

In August, we will still focus on the Yangtze River Delta and the Greater Bay Area. Throughout August, we will inspect the key core cities in the Greater Bay Area. In the key core cities of the Greater Bay Area, we also found some extremely surprising high-quality projects.

Who would have thought that one day one could buy a house in the core areas of the core cities of the Greater Bay Area with a down payment of less than 100,000 yuan.

Who would have thought that high-quality projects in the core cities of the Greater Bay Area, where money never sleeps, could achieve the goal of paying interest first and then paying principal in five years.

Who would have thought that the Greater Bay Area, which has always been at the forefront of innovation, would once again outperform other regions in terms of policies and products.

During this turning point, you must go to the forefront of the national real estate market to feel the heat, experience the incredible policies, and see the high-quality projects.