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Author | The Powerpuff Girls

Source of the article | Gelonghui Real Estate

There are several special signals that the first-tier real estate market seems to be bottoming out.

Guangzhou’s “trump card”

In just two or three days, it seems that the real estate market has witnessed another milestone.

Buying a house in a first-tier city will give you a household registration, which has become a hot topic.

The Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Huadu District in Guangzhou has officially announced that as long as you buy a house in Huadu, you will be given a talent household registration, and your children will be admitted to school in Huadu according to district policy.

The purpose of buying a house is to allow children to receive a better education from an early age.

But in fact, a household registration in Huadu is not valuable and it is not difficult to settle down there.

Last year, Guangzhou issued a notice on the opinions on the "Guangzhou City Differentiated Household Registration Management Measures for Out-of-City Migration" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures"), which showed thatYou only need to have a college degree and be under 28 years old and have paid social security for one year to settle in Huadu.

It is not difficult to go to school locally. There is no shortage of places in good public primary schools in Huadu.

It should also be noted that one only enjoys the "quasi-household registration" treatment and must purchase a new house, which is different from the real settlement in everyone's perception.

The Huadu District Talent Green Card is originally a green channel for non-local residents to buy houses. The benefits of obtaining the "Hua Card" include buying a house and going to school.

Therefore, this policy of giving talent household registration as a gift when buying a house can be said to be better than nothing.

Huadu’s real killer feature this time is to encourage “price guarantee without worries”.

This is something that many people overlook.

There is a high probability that Huadu’s policy this time was helped by some wise guys.

Price guarantee means that if the developer lowers the price later, the owners who bought the property in the early stage don’t have to worry or rush to the sales department. The developer will directly make up the difference.

This completely protects everyone's mentality of "buy when the price goes up and not buy when the price goes down", and it is a completely risk-free arbitrage.

Such a policy would most likely have been stopped before this, as it was skirting the rules.

Now it really hits the point of new house, it is really high.

You should know that according to the information on Shell New House, there are currently 47 properties on sale in the entire Huadu real estate market. According to statistics from the China Index Academy, from January to July 2024, the first-hand residential properties (including ordinary residential properties, garden houses, and villas) in Huadu DistrictThe number of units sold is 3655, ranking fifth among all administrative districts in the city.

The new home market in Huadu is mainly dominated by local customers. Due to distance and transportation reasons, few people choose to live in Huadu and commute across districts to work in Yuexiu, Haizhu, Tianhe and other places.

This means that it is almost impossible for Huadu to attract an overflow of urgent customer base working in the core areas of Guangzhou.

Therefore, the market in Huadu is in urgent need of a big supporter.

Now, they offer a degree, a house ticket and promise "only profit and no loss", and support the exchange of small for big. Such a housing policy,I can't say that I feel at ease, but at least the atmosphere is created.

Shanghai’s “trump card”

Unlike the sluggish real estate market in Guangzhou, land auctions in Shanghai are booming.

Today (August 7), Shanghai’s land king became a hot topic.

The land parcel xh128D-07 located in Xietu Street, Xuhui District, Shanghai, was auctioned at the highest price. After 72 rounds of bidding, Greentown won the land parcel at 4.805 billion yuan.The transaction floor price is 131,045 yuan/square meter, with a premium rate of 30%, directly breaking the record of the most expensive land in China auctioned by Rongsheng China in Shanghai in 2016(Floor price 100,000 yuan/square meter)。

For Greentown, which has acquired the land, the future opening price needs to be around 165,000 yuan/m2 to break even, and the price needs to be around 183,000 yuan/m2 to achieve a profit margin of about 5%.

The current average price ceiling for new homes in Shanghai is about 178,000 yuan/㎡.This means that the new houses built on this land in the future will most likely break this upper limit.

The birth of the land king will naturally benefit the owners of the surrounding first-hand and second-hand houses.

The increase in ceiling prices has resulted in a surge in the price ceilings of each community.

In April this year, the average registered price of 80 large-sized properties in Hong Kong Land Kaiyuan was about RMB 178,000/m2, and in June, the average registered price of China Overseas Land & Investment Jiuxu was about RMB 146,000/m2.

Therefore, for the owners who chose the Xuhui riverside luxury homes before June this year, they have the confidence to "upside down".

Among the four first-tier cities today, Shanghai has shown the strongest resilience.

Most obviously, in the first half of the year, Shanghai's luxury housing market once again became the focus of the market.

Not only are the sales of luxury homes eye-catching, but even new luxury homes are also the focus of the market.

For example, among the 512 residential units in China Overseas Shunchang Jiuli located in the Huangpu Xintiandi section of Shanghai, with an average price of 40 million yuan per unit, more than 700 wealthy people chose their homes, and about 98% were sold on the same day.

According to CRIC data, in the first half of 2024, a total of 3,972 luxury homes were sold in the Shanghai real estate market, with a total transaction amount exceeding 100 billion yuan.Among them, 1,544 luxury homes with a total price of more than 30 million yuan were sold, which is 1.6 times the transaction volume of the whole year last year, setting a new high in the past decade.

Even in June and July, thanks to policy support, the number of second-hand houses in Shanghai reached more than 20,000, much higher than the boom-bust line of 15,000.

It is obvious that the degree of market stabilization is not seen in other first-tier cities.

Therefore, the refreshed land prices once again prove the strong vitality of Shanghai's real estate market.

Shenzhen’s “trump card”

Guangzhou stimulated the sales of new houses by offering household registration, and Shanghai boosted the market atmosphere through land auctions.Shenzhen chose to consume its inventory through storage.

Just now (August 7), Shenzhen Anju Group issued a "Notice on the Collection of Commercial Housing for Use as Affordable Housing", which will purchase commercial houses, apartments, and dormitories in Shenzhen for use as affordable housing.

Specific scope:Commercial housing, apartments, dormitories, etc. within Shenzhen (excluding the Shenzhen-Shantou Special Cooperation Zone), with priority given to unsold buildings or units that can be closed for management.

Collection requirements:1. Suitable location; 2. Suitable apartment size (less than 65 m2); 3. Convenient living; 4. Complete procedures and eligible for loan.

This is a direct benefit to unsold residential, apartment and dormitory properties.

NoonlyIt can consume Shenzhen’s commercial housing inventory and complete Shenzhen’s affordable housing supply plan as soon as possible, killing two birds with one stone.

Huizhou and Xinxiang, Henan have already issued solicitation notices, and Shenzhen's actions are relatively slow.

Some people may say that there are not many properties that meet the requirements, because not only must the entire building or unit be unsold and able to be closed off, but it must also have convenient transportation and an area of ​​less than 65 square meters.

In fact, if you pay attention to the overall situation of new houses in Shenzhen, you will find that there are quite a few that meet the requirements.

According to the Shenzhen real estate information platform:

Hengyu Park Hyatt Bay (apartment) located in the center of Nanshan has been approved for pre-sale for 628 days. The main apartment types of Unit 3 and Unit 4 in Building 1 are approximately 42.3 or 42.4 square meters. Except for the 4 large apartments on the top floor of the two units on the 48th floor, for which subscription agreements have been signed, the rest of the houses are all pre-sale properties.

For example, the Danhua Residence (dormitory) in Xili, Nanshan District, has been approved for pre-sale for 687 days. All the houses in Building 6B and Building 7 are on sale, and the area is about 56 square meters.

For example, the Jinxin Center Apartment (dormitory) in Songgang, Baoan, was approved for pre-sale for 472 days, with 1 building and 1 unit.There are properties for sale in the pre-sale statusstate, and the apartment area is approximately 48.8 square meters and 38.2 square meters;

For example, Pengnianshan Yue Mingdu (dormitory) in Dapeng was approved for pre-sale for 604 days, but none of the 500 units were sold.

This is just a residence with dormitory attributes.

Generally speaking, due to design and market demand, there are many apartments in Shenzhen with an area of ​​less than 65 square meters.Therefore, if apartment-type properties are included, I believe there will be more properties that meet the collection conditions of Anju Group.

so,The focus of the solicitation is not whether there are projects that meet the conditions, but the developer's willingness to participate in the solicitation.

Because the solicitation follows the principles of "marketization, rule of law" and voluntary participation by both parties, it means that developers and Anju Group need to balance prices.

If the collection price is too high, Anju Group will face great pressure in collection costs; if it is too low, the developer will not be able to cover the past development and operation costs.

As for some owners, if the project they choose has houses below 65 square meters and the project is not selling well, they need to pay attention. Because if the project participates in the solicitation, the original pure residential or pure apartment project may become a combination of residential/apartment/+ affordable housing.

But no matter from which angle you look at it, it will directly benefit those who are waiting for affordable housing.

The houses collected are basically located in core areas with convenient transportation, complete supporting facilities and close to regional development. They are convenient for living. Who would not be tempted by such houses in the future?

The author's views do not represent the position of Glodon