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In the first half of 2024, the main economic data of major "trillion-dollar GDP cities" were released one after another.

In terms of growth rate, most of the "trillion-dollar GDP cities" performed well, exceeding the national average. Quanzhou, Suzhou and Chongqing achieved GDP growth rates of 6.7%, 6.2% and 6.1% in the first half of the year, respectively, ranking the top three among all "trillion-dollar GDP cities"; Beijing and Shenzhen, among the first-tier cities, grew at 5.4% and 5.9% respectively, "outperforming" the national growth rate. Among the "trillion-dollar GDP cities", Foshan's growth rate was 1.7%, ranking last.

It is worth noting that, observing from the data in the first half of the year, the ranking of "trillion-dollar GDP cities" has also been changing. For example, in the battle for the "fourth city" in terms of GDP, Chongqing once again surpassed Guangzhou; and Ningbo's GDP in the same period also surpassed Tianjin for the first time.

Why can we “outperform”?

In the first half of this year, among the top ten cities in terms of GDP, Suzhou, Chongqing and Shenzhen had higher growth rates, reaching 6.2%, 6.1% and 5.9% respectively.

In addition, other "trillion-dollar GDP cities" that "outperformed" the national average include Quanzhou (6.7%), Wuxi (5.9%), Qingdao (5.8%), Nantong (5.8%), Changzhou (5.6%), Hefei (5.5%), Ningbo (5.4%), Beijing (5.4%), Wuhan (5.3%), Zhengzhou (5.3%), Jinan (5.3%), and Dongguan (5.3%).

Quanzhou's growth rate is as high as 6.7%, ranking first among all "trillion-dollar GDP cities". In the first half of 2023, Quanzhou's GDP growth rate was 3.1%, lower than the national average at the time; this year, Quanzhou has reversed last year's "downturn" and returned to a period of rapid growth.

The growth rate of the secondary industry has become a key driving force for the development of many cities. For example, in Quanzhou, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of this year. The industrial data of several cities that followed closely behind were even more impressive. The industrial growth rates of cities such as Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Chongqing played a strong role in the overall GDP growth.

In the first half of this year, Shenzhen's industrial added value above designated size increased by 12.0%, leading the way among "trillion-dollar GDP cities". Among them, emerging industries grew at a higher rate, such as the added value of computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, which increased by 17.0%, and 3D printing equipment, services, etc.robot, and the output of electronic component products increased by 83.3%, 37.6% and 29.1% respectively.

Shenzhen also performed well in terms of industrial investment. In the first half of the year, Shenzhen's fixed asset investment increased by 8.9%, of which industrial investment increased by 49.2%. This is the 18th consecutive month that Shenzhen has maintained a growth of more than 30%. Among all industrial investments, investment in electronic and communication equipment manufacturing increased by 79.0%.apple、MatsushitaWell-known companies such as Alibaba and Tencent are increasing their investment in Shenzhen.

"Shenzhen's own industrial structure has formed certain advantages. In addition, Shenzhen has also seized many opportunities in new industries, new energy vehicles being one of the representatives," said Ding Li, an economics researcher at the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences.

The data show that inBYDDriven by, Shenzhen's automobile production reached 1.0094 million vehicles in the first half of this year, an increase of 37.8%.

Similarly, in Suzhou, where GDP growth reached 6.2%, the secondary industry also played a major driving role. Data show that in the first half of this year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Suzhou increased by 9.5% year-on-year. Among them, the output value of electronic information and automobile manufacturing industries achieved double-digit growth. The output of high-tech products such as sensors, medical instruments and equipment, optoelectronic devices and integrated circuits increased by 75.5%, 27.2%, 23.9% and 22.6% year-on-year respectively.

During the same period, Chongqing's industrial added value above designated size increased by 8.6% year-on-year, 5.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, the automobile industry continued to accelerate, with added value increasing by 30.3%, and the energy industry, consumer goods industry, and materials industry also grew rapidly. In the first half of this year, Chongqing's production of new energy vehicles was 391,400 units, an increase of 150%; integrated circuits were 3.017 billion pieces, an increase of 81.5%; and liquid crystal displays were 182 million pieces, an increase of 26.3%.

In addition to industry, foreign trade is also a key factor affecting growth.

Taking Quanzhou as an example, where the growth rate reached 6.7%, in the first half of this year, Quanzhou's export trade volume was 98.629 billion yuan, an increase of 18.2%.

The situation in Shenzhen is also quite obvious. According to Shenzhen Customs statistics, in the first half of the year, Shenzhen's import and export trade volume was 2.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, setting a new record for Shenzhen's import and export in the same period. Shenzhen even surpassed Shanghai and ranked first among mainland foreign trade cities in the same period.

Suzhou also achieved good growth in import and export growth. Data showed that the import and export trade volume reached 1.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.2%.

In the view of Song Ding, a researcher at the national high-end think tank CDI, some domestic labor-intensive industries are currently flowing to countries with lower costs. However, industries with technological barriers or long industrial chains are the opposite and are difficult to transfer. He said: "ASEAN countries such as Vietnam currently have strong manufacturing capabilities, but they are still unable to cope with many complex industrial chains. Shenzhen and Suzhou have certain advantages in this type of manufacturing."

Why “underperform”?

Among the "trillion-dollar GDP cities", the three cities with the lowest GDP growth rates in the first half of this year were Foshan, Xi'an and Guangzhou, with growth rates of 1.7%, 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.

Xi'an has the lowest growth rate among the "trillion-dollar GDP cities" in the central and western regions, and this was already evident in the first quarter of this year. In the first quarter, Xi'an's GDP growth rate was only 2.7%, which was also at the bottom of the "trillion-dollar GDP cities" in the country. In terms of industries, the growth rate of the secondary industry, which accounts for a relatively large proportion, has lowered Xi'an's overall growth rate. In the first half of the year, Xi'an's secondary industry added value was 183.178 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7%, which has widened the gap with many "trillion-dollar GDP cities".

The pattern of "trillion-dollar GDP cities" has changed. In the first half of 2024, Tianjin's GDP was 819.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. During the same period, Ningbo's GDP reached 820.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the national average, and 1.678 billion yuan more than Tianjin, thus rising to 11th place in the country. According to official data, this is the first time in nearly a decade that Ningbo has surpassed Tianjin in semi-annual GDP and is further approaching Nanjing. Data from the first half of the year showed that Nanjing's GDP growth rate was 4.4%, and its advantage over Ningbo has also narrowed from 57.1 billion yuan in the same period last year to less than 40 billion yuan.

In addition, the most eye-catching issue is still the competition between Guangzhou and Chongqing for the title of the "fourth city". Previously, the two cities had repeatedly "sawed" over key economic data such as GDP.

In 2023, Guangzhou's GDP was 3.04 trillion yuan, and Chongqing's was 3.01 trillion yuan. Although Guangzhou was briefly surpassed by Chongqing during the year, it still maintained its position as the "fourth city" throughout last year.

By the first half of 2024, Guangzhou's GDP was 1,429.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. During the same period, Chongqing's GDP was 1,513.824 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, ranking first among cities in central and western China, surpassing Guangzhou.

Industry often plays the role of "ballast stone". Compared with other cities in the Greater Bay Area, cities whose GDP growth rate "outperforms" the national average growth rate often have a significant driving effect from industry. For example, Shenzhen's GDP grew by 5.9%, and its industrial output grew by 12.0%, while Dongguan's GDP grew by 5.3%, and its industrial output grew by 10.0%.

The growth rate of Guangzhou's secondary industry was significantly behind the other three industries. In the first half of the year, the growth rates of its primary, secondary and tertiary industries were -0.1%, 1.8% and 2.8% respectively. The added value of Guangzhou's industrial enterprises above designated size fell into negative growth, down 0.8% year-on-year.

During the same period, the added value of Chongqing's secondary industry was 588.69 billion yuan, and the growth rates of secondary industry and industrial added value above designated size were 7.0% and 8.6% respectively.

In fact, Guangzhou has three pillar industries, namely automobile manufacturing, electronic product manufacturing and petrochemical manufacturing. In the first half of this year, the electronic product manufacturing and petrochemical manufacturing industries grew by 8.1% and 4.0% respectively. Other high-tech industries in Guangzhou also had good momentum, such as pharmaceutical manufacturing and electronic and communication equipment manufacturing, which grew by 7.5% and 10.7% respectively. However, during the same period, Guangzhou's automobile manufacturing production continued to be under pressure, with added value falling by 16.4% year-on-year.

"The main driving force for the development of Guangzhou's automobile industry comes from joint venture brands. Guangzhou is the largest production base of Toyota, Honda and Nissan in China. As the market share of Japanese cars in the domestic market has declined across the board, Guangzhou's automobile industry is also facing drastic changes in the market," Song Ding analyzed.

GAC GroupThe production and sales report in June showed that both production and sales fell in the first half of the year. The production of GAC Honda and GAC Toyota fell by 42.02% and 26.36% respectively. Even GAC's new energy brand GAC Aion saw its production and sales fall by 35.26% and 39.65% respectively.

"In the past, when fuel vehicles were the mainstay, GAC's fuel vehicle joint venture brands were giants, accounting for a large proportion of its revenue and profits, but now the market share of traditional fuel vehicles has declined sharply. Guangzhou is also cultivating the new energy vehicle industry, but whether it is GAC Aion or Xiaopeng, the current scale is still relatively small, and there is a large gap in market share with brands such as BYD, which is far from making up for the decline in sales of joint venture brands." Song Ding said frankly, "This means that in this round of industrial transformation, Guangzhou's layout and adjustment speed has been slow."

Song Ding mentioned that Guangzhou's automobile manufacturing industry accounts for about 1/4 of the city's total industrial added value, and automobile sales account for more than 1/10 of the city's total commodity sales. Due to the sharp decline in performance of fuel vehicles, which account for the largest proportion of Guangzhou's automobile industry, the negative impact on Guangzhou's economic growth is very large.

At the same time, the data of Chongqing's automobile industry in the first half of this year has attracted special attention.

From January to June this year, Chongqing's automobile production reached 1.214 million units, ranking first among cities in the country; Chongqing's new energy vehicle production reached 391,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times, far higher than the national average growth rate of 30.1%.

In fact, Chongqing's automobile production ranked first in China for three consecutive years from 2014 to 2016. Eight years later, Chongqing's automobile production surpassed Guangzhou and returned to the top of the country.

The growth of Chongqing's new energy vehicle production is inseparable from local car brands: from January to June this year,Changan AutomobileThe sales volume of domestically produced new energy vehicles reached 299,000, a year-on-year increase of more than 69%; from January to JuneSeresThe cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles reached more than 200,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 348.55%.

In the first half of this year, among the “trillion-dollar GDP cities”, Foshan ranked last in terms of growth rate, at only 1.7%. Specifically, the added value of Foshan’s industrial enterprises above designated size was 294.125 billion yuan, down 0.1% year-on-year. Foshan is known as an industrial powerhouse, and the decline in industry has a self-evident impact on it.

In fact, many industrial products in Foshan are deeply tied to the real estate industry, such as Foshan's well-known architectural ceramics and furniture industries. This year, the overall downward trend of the domestic real estate industry continues, and the impact on Foshan's overall economy is still continuing.

"Guangzhou and Shenzhen both have their own 'hinterland' and 'metropolitan area'. Judging from the situation in the first half of the year, the GDP growth rates of the three cities of Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou in the 'Shenzhen metropolitan area' were 5.9%, 5.3% and 5.1% respectively, while the GDP growth rates of the three cities of Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhaoqing in the 'Guangzhou metropolitan area' were 2.5%, 1.7% and 3.7% respectively. Guangzhou and Foshan, which have been promoting the 'integration of Guangzhou and Foshan', both saw a decline in GDP growth in the first half of this year." Song Ding said.

The automobile industry has a strong driving effect on upstream and downstream industries due to its long supply chain. In Foshan, there are a large number of parts companies that support Guangzhou's automobile industry. For example, in Nanhai District, there areHonda MotorSome analysts believe that the decline of Guangzhou's auto industry will also indirectly affect Foshan, which is building a "Guangzhou-Foshan" city with Guangzhou.

"For Guangzhou, it is crucial to continue to work hard to promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, especially traditional strong and excellent industries such as the automobile industry that have important supporting significance for Guangzhou's economy; another point is to give full play to Guangzhou's advantages, introduce strategic emerging industries and new economies in line with Guangzhou's actual needs in a targeted manner, and promote the high-quality development of new quality productivity." Song Ding said.

Author: Zhao Yue