Reshuffle, the property market points to three major directions
2024-08-06
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Source of the article | Gelonghui Real EstateThe answer to how the Shenzhen real estate market will develop in two years has been revealed.Recently, Shenzhen finally announced its land supply plan for 2024.There are many highlights, and there are several unexpected aspects:1、The overall residential land supply area is much less than two or three years ago., this year there are only 180 hectares, while the annual supply from 2021 to 2023 will exceed 330 hectares.2. The largest supply of commercial housing land is in Qianhai, reaching 19.5 hectares, more than Baoan's 18.5 hectares. In the past, the supply of commercial residential land in Qianhai was really very small.Only 2.3 hectares were supplied in 2021, and only 1.5 hectares in 2022. Only in 2023 did the supply increase relatively significantly to 13.5 hectares.It seems that the land supply after the regulation adjustment in Mawan last year will be quite large this year.3. After the total residential land supply area dropped significantly, the area of affordable housing land remained basically the same.In most areas, the land used for affordable housing is larger than the land used for commercial housing.This shows that increasing the supply of affordable housing remains a major trend, especially in Futian, Luohu and Nanshan. The core area's restricted purchase areas have become the main source of affordable housing supply.In the future, we will definitely see more super affordable housing being built in super locations. Those who are waiting for affordable housing will be blessed.Therefore, there is a reason why Shenzhen’s land supply slowed down in the first half of this year and only one residential land was sold.Now that the land supply plan has been implemented, I believe we will see a take-off in land sales in various regions in the second half of the year.The signal sent by QianhaiIn fact, focusing on the commercial housing market, the biggest hammer in this year's land use arrangements is undoubtedly the supply in Qianhai.
For Qianhai, which has already adjusted its regulations, the supply of residential land is indeed no longer as tight and scarce as it was five or six years ago.However, the market's assumption is that there is no need to worry even if the adjusted land use of Mawan will break the scarcity of residential properties in Qianhai.On the one hand, the residential land in QianhaiThe 14 plots of land that have been put on the market in the past and those that have been adjusted in Mawan have a total of no more than 38 residential plots, which is not a lot for such a large area.On the other hand, not all plots of land will be put on the market at once.At least it will be released slowly, and the cycle will be extended to about three to five years.But now the supply of Qianhai has accelerated, and according to the annual supply arrangement, it has become the area with the largest supply of commercial residential land in Shenzhen.Then Qianhai may face a situation of large supply of commercial housing in the short term.Qianhai only entered a period of explosive supply after 2019.A total of 15 launches were held, and half of them were sold out on the first day. Even if they could not achieve the goal of "sold out on the first day", the sales were still much faster than projects in other regions during the process of smooth sales.The most obvious thing is that in these dozen or so launches, about 8,199 residential units were supplied, but currently there are only 272 units on sale. This is the area with the lowest inventory among all areas in Shenzhen, and it is also the most expensive area in terms of average price except for Futian District.This shows that as long as you are patient enough, the projects in Qianhai can be sold out.Therefore, even if there are more and larger projects in Qianhai in the future, it will be more conducive to the formation of a stable and effective residential cluster in the region.On the one hand, there is no need to explain the high positioning of Qianhai.On the other hand, Qianhai’s attractiveness to capital may have exceeded many people’s imagination.For example, the “30 Qianhai Financial Measures” that were implemented last year. By the first half of this year, 58,000 individual investors in Shenzhen had participated in the pilot program of “Cross-border Wealth Management Connect”, with a total cross-border payment and receipt amount of 30.2 billion yuan, accounting for 45.9% of the total number of investors in the Greater Bay Area; Hong Kong compatriots have also established 376,000 accounts in Shenzhen.This is just from the individual investor side, there is also corporate participation.The residential cluster atmosphere of Qianhai is gradually being realized. If there is anything difficult to accept, it is probably for the homeowners who bought property in Qianhai in the past few years.Not only do the projects offer little profit margin and discounts when they are launched, but even the loan interest rates are not cheap.Compared with the group of home buyers who will buy houses in Qianhai in the future, it is estimated that it will be difficult to lower the price after the ban on second-hand houses is gradually lifted, after all, the cost of buying a house is right in front of them.Therefore, the owners who have chosen Qianhai may need to prepare for the holding period.longerpreparation.Why has Qianhai become a major supplier of commercial residential land this year?There are several reasons for this.First, Shenzhen's property market has undergone profound changes. Under the implementation of the "supply based on demand" policy, the Shenzhen market has changed from a rigid demand market to an improvement market.The group that supports the entire Shenzhen real estate market has completely become a group with the ability to appeal for financial support.The most obvious projects that sold well in Shenzhen this year include Hyde Garden in Futian, Shenzhen Metro Qianhai Times Mansion, and China Overseas Shenzhen Bay Jiuxu. All of them are large-sized apartments with a high capital threshold.Second, the supply of commercial office buildings in Qianhai can already meet the market leasing demand, without the need to increase supply in large quantities, and Qianhai’s residential cluster is not yet fully mature.Third, the underlying situation of Qianhai’s residential market is still good. The inventory of commercial housing supplied in the past is running low, and it has indeed reached the stage where new supply is needed.Therefore, under such circumstances, giving some preference to regional supply that is easy to sell is also in line with actual needs.The author's views do not represent the position of Glodon
