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"In the face of time, all technical obstacles are paper tigers." Ten years ago, new energy vehicles were still a new concept. Ten years later, new energy vehicles are already running all over the streets. It is really worth looking forward to what will happen in another ten years.

In the development history of new energy vehicles, the first half of 2024 is destined to leave a significant mark.

According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers,As of the end of June this year, the cumulative production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles have officially exceeded the 30 million mark.Specifically, from January to June this year, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 4.929 million and 4.944 million, up 30.1% and 32% year-on-year respectively, with a market share of 35.2%. In July, the monthly retail sales of new energy vehicles were expected to reach 860,000.

This trend is still accelerating. Specifically, in June alone, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.003 million and 1.049 million respectively, with a market share of 41.1%. It is not difficult to foresee that the market share of new energy vehicles will further increase in the future.

So, looking back at the first half of 2024, what are the development trends worth paying attention to behind the rapid development of new energy vehicles?

With the sharp increase in market share, are gasoline vehicles doomed?

The rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle market is accompanied by the gradual decline of the traditional fuel vehicle market, which is an inevitable trend. From the data, from January to June this year, the retail sales of conventional fuel vehicles reached 5.73 million, a year-on-year decrease of 13%.

The rapid decline of fuel vehicles still exceeded many people's expectations.

In the view of Node Finance, the reason why the sales volume of new energy vehicles is increasing year by year isFirst of all, new energy vehicles have advantages that fuel vehicles cannot match, such as the new smart technology and driving experience of electric vehicles, which far exceed traditional fuel vehicles.A smart electric car that costs 200,000 or 300,000 yuan can provide a driving experience that even a million-yuan fuel car could not achieve in the past, which has prompted a large number of former fuel car users to change their cars.

Moreover, in the new energy vehicle market, major brands are working hard to launch new products one after another. However, in comparison, the traditional fuel vehicle market seems to lack momentum.

The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that a total of 11 fuel vehicles were launched in the first half of this year, 31 fewer than in the same period of 2018.A total of 60 new models of new energy vehicles were launched in the first half of the year, almost six times the number of fuel vehicles.

Furthermore, the lack of new product launches has also put fuel vehicles at a disadvantage in the "price war" competition.

In the "price war" that started at the beginning of this year, fuel vehicles also participated in it. However, new energy vehicles relied on a large number of new products to offset some of the negative impact of price declines. In contrast, fuel vehicles faced greater pressure because of the significant reduction in new products and it was difficult to maintain price stability.

At present, after the large-scale price cuts at the beginning of the year, the discounts of many new energy vehicle brands have shrunk compared with before, but the discounts of fuel vehicles are getting bigger and bigger because they have to be reduced.

However, even so, fuel vehicles may not be able to reverse their “crushing defeat”. In the second half of this year, favorable policies such as old-for-new and new energy vehicle promotion will continue to be implemented in various places, and new energy vehicle products will be launched intensively. It is highly likely that sales will increase further. Industry insiders predict thatThis year, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 11.5 million units.

Such a market size provides ample room for development for domestic new energy vehicle brands. So, how have the new energy vehicle brands performed over the past six months?

The independent brand structure, "Weibo, Xiaoli and Li Auto" no longer exists

According to Node Finance, from the perspective of the entire automobile market, the market share of domestic brand passenger cars is constantly increasing. On the one hand, this is due to the rapid growth in sales of new energy vehicles. Within this trend, the transformation speed of domestic brands in electrification and intelligence is significantly higher than that of joint venture brands. On the other hand, automobile exports are growing rapidly, and the export market is basically dominated by domestic brands.

In terms of specific performance,BYDThe sales volume of BYD is still the leading one. Data shows that BYD sold 340,000 new energy vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%; the cumulative sales volume in the first seven months of this year was about 1.96 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 28.83%.

In addition to BYD, many new car manufacturers also performed well in the first half of the year.Ideal AutoAfter a brief downturn in the first half of this year, it rebounded strongly and won the sales crown among new forces in July, achieving a monthly delivery record of about 51,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 49.4%. In the first seven months of this year, it achieved delivery of about 240,000 vehicles.

However, at the beginning of this year, Ideal set a full-year delivery target of 480,000 vehicles. In contrast, Ideal will have to work harder in the second half of the year to achieve its full-year target.

Besides Ideal, another company that can compete with it is Seres. Data shows that Seres’ sales of new energy vehicles reached 42,200 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 508.25%. In the first seven months, the sales volume of vehicles reached 282,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 171.19%.

The sales of Seres are mainly from itsAITO Questionscomposition, which is also the compositionHongmeng Intelligent DrivingIt is the absolute main force, and Hongmeng Zhixing has delivered a total of 238,300 vehicles in the first seven months of this year.

In the second echelon of new forces,NIOGradually coming out of the trough, NIO delivered a total of 20,500 new cars in July, with over 20,000 delivered for three consecutive months. In the first seven months of this year, NIO delivered a total of 108,000 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 43.85%.

It is worth noting that throughout the second quarter, NIO delivered a total of 57,400 new vehicles, a substantial increase of 143.9%, far exceeding market expectations. Therefore, NIO's performance in the second half of the year may be even stronger.

Also exceeding 20,000 units in July wereZero Run, which delivered 22,100 vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 54.1%, setting a new record.Zeekr, its new car deliveries in July reached 15,700 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%.

In contrast, one of the three former "Weibo, Xiaopeng and Li Auto"XiaopengThe gap is obvious. The delivery volume in July this year was about 11,100 vehicles, and the delivery volume in the first seven months of this year was 63,100 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20%.

Finally, we must mention the "top stream in the car circle" in the first half of the yearXiaomi Motors, June and July,Xiaomi SU7Xiaomi Motors said that the delivery volume will continue to exceed 10,000 in August, and it is expected to complete the annual delivery target of 100,000 units ahead of schedule in November.

Judging from the sales performance of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year, BYD's scale is still unique.Ideal and SERES are in the first echelon among the new forces, NIO, Zeekr, and Leapmotor are in the second echelon. Xiaomi's performance still needs to be observed, and there is a possibility that Xpeng will fall behind the "NIO, Xpeng, and Li Auto".

Compared with previous years, the landscape of the entire new energy vehicle market is undergoing great changes.

In the next three years, new energy will play a decisive role in intelligent driving

On the one hand, the market size is expanding rapidly, and on the other hand, it also means that competition is intensifying. This is not only reflected in the competition between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles, but also in the "involution" among electric vehicle brands. The "price war" that started at the beginning of this year is a manifestation of the fierce competition.

Not long ago,a ToyotaIn a post on its official WeChat account, it said: "From January to June this year, the most influential, longest-lasting and most widespread keyword in the auto market is still price war."

In this regard, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu's view is more representative. He believes thatThe new energy vehicle industry has entered the elimination round, and 2024 to 2026 will be a decisive battle of scale, cost and technology.

"Chinese auto companies are accelerating the launch of new energy products, which will erode the market share of joint venture brands. In the next three to five years, the share of joint venture brands will drop from 40% to 10%, of which 30% will be the future growth space for Chinese brands."

In the next three years, Wang Chuanfu's views will be confirmed.

In the short term, Node Finance observed that the raging "price war" has had a significant impact on the terminal market.The continued large-scale promotions in the first half of the year, while driving sales in the first half of the year, may have an overdraft effect on consumption by car buyers in the second half of the year. The effect of exchanging price for volume in July may weaken. Whether the production and sales volume in the second half of the year can maintain the momentum of the first half of the year requires further observation.

Of course, as China's independent new energy vehicle brands expand their presence in the global market, new growth momentum is emerging.

At present, the export volume of domestic brands continues to grow rapidly in core export regions such as Southeast Asia and Central Asia, and for markets with strong local brands such as Europe, domestic brands have also begun to try new joint venture models centered on technology exports. For countries with low consumption capacity such as Africa, the penetration rate of domestic brands is relatively low, and they still adopt a model that mainly relies on direct exports.

According to the latest report released by AlixPartners, by 2030, Chinese-branded cars will achieve sales of 9 million units outside of China, and their market share will increase to 13%. The development prospects of China's new energy vehicles are still worth looking forward to.

Node Finance observed that the decisive battle for new energy vehicles in the future will revolve around intelligent driving technology.

Just a few days ago,TeslaIn the earnings call, Musk said that FSD (full self-driving) has made great progress and is expected to enter the Chinese market before the end of this year. In addition, he also announced that Tesla will release Robotaxi on October 10, with the goal of running it around the world within this year.

Tesla, the "catfish", is coming aggressively. It is not difficult to predict that autonomous driving will become a new battlefield for the global competition of scientific and technological strength and comprehensive national strength. Time waits for no one, and it is worth waiting to see who will have the last laugh.

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