news

The new policy has helped the second-hand housing market, which is known as the "barometer of the property market", to stabilize and rebound. Beijing Business Daily reporters found that as of July 30, the number of second-hand housing online signings in Beijing in July reached 14,577, which has been above the boom-bust line for five consecutive months. Based on the recent daily average of nearly 500 units, it is almost certain that the number will exceed 15,000 units for the whole month, which is also a 16-month high.

An insider of a leading real estate agency revealed that in the past month, the price of second-hand houses in Beijing has stabilized. The industry believes that if this trend can continue, the stability of second-hand houses will feed back to new houses, and the effect of the policy combination will be further expanded.

According to traditional practice, after the "small spring" in March every year, the real estate market will decline inertia, but this year's Beijing second-hand housing market is a little different: from the trend point of view, since March this year, Beijing's second-hand housing sales have continued to maintain a relatively high level of more than 13,000 units per month. By June and July, Beijing's second-hand housing sales have been stable at around 15,000 units per month.

July is especially off-season. As of July 30, Beijing's second-hand housing online signing volume in July reached 14,577 units, standing above the boom-bust line for five consecutive months. According to the recent average daily transaction of nearly 500 units, it is almost certain that the monthly sales will exceed 15,000 units, which is also a new high in 16 months. The most obvious contrast is that in July 2023, Beijing's second-hand housing online signing volume was only 9,718 units, falling below 10,000 units.

Xu Yuejin, deputy director of research at China Index Academy, believes that second-hand housing is known as the "barometer of the property market". The online signing data can give us a general idea of ​​the transaction heat of the Beijing property market. When the monthly online signing volume is less than 8,000 units, it means that the market is very cold. When the online signing volume reaches 12,000 units per month, it is the prosperity and decline balance line, indicating that the market is relatively stable and suitable for rational transactions between buyers and sellers. If it exceeds 15,000 units per month, it is considered to be the threshold line of the market showing an upward trend.

Xu Yuejin said that the continued active market transactions play a positive role in stabilizing expectations. The decline in housing prices is expected to continue to narrow in the future, and the expectation of rising housing prices in the short term is not sufficient, which also gives home buyers a longer transaction cycle.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, believes that the core factor behind the recent significant increase in the number of second-hand residential property online signings in Beijing is the expectation of the "May 17" new policy. "Although Beijing only implemented the policy on June 26, the market has already expected the reduction in down payments and interest rates. Under this circumstance, Beijing's second-hand housing transaction volume has been steadily rising since the second half of May and has remained at a high level."

In fact, before the policy adjustment on June 26, Beijing had issued several policies to optimize the real estate market. According to statistics from Beijing Business Daily, Beijing has made nine optimization adjustments to the real estate market since September 2023, such as the "recognize housing but not loans" policy implemented in September 2023, the relaxation of the "double restrictions" in Tongzhou in February 2024, and the purchase of an additional house outside the Fifth Ring Road at the end of April 2024.

From the perspective of spatial distribution, second-hand housing transactions in Beijing in the second quarter experienced a process of "first outside and then inside". On April 30, Beijing optimized the purchase restrictions within the Fifth Ring Road, allowing families that reached the purchase limit to purchase an additional house outside the Fifth Ring Road. Therefore, from April to the first half of July, the transaction heat in the urban development areas outside the Fifth Ring Road was relatively higher, and the proportion of the periphery also increased. Since July, with the steady operation of the replacement chain, the transaction heat in the peripheral areas has begun to transfer to the inner ring.

Corresponding to the changes in spatial structure, the transaction structure of second-hand houses in Beijing has shown the characteristics of "both ends protruding". Since July, the transaction volume of low-priced and high-priced second-hand houses in Beijing has increased at the same time, and the transaction proportion of houses with a total price of less than 4 million yuan has increased by 1.7 percentage points compared with June.

The off-season for second-hand housing is not only reflected in the transaction volume. According to insiders from leading intermediary agencies, in the past month, "prices have stabilized" has been a characteristic of this market.

Data from Beijing Lianjia shows that the overall trend of second-hand housing prices in Beijing has been stable since the second quarter. In June, the market price rose by about 0.5% month-on-month. In July (as of July 24), the average transaction price of second-hand residential properties in Beijing Lianjia rose by 0.4% month-on-month. The price increase mainly comes from changes in the transaction structure, which is relatively stable from the perspective of comparable housing prices. This is mainly due to the reversal of new customers and new housing sources. Although the supply and demand relationship still favors buyers, it is more balanced than in the first quarter, which is conducive to the relative stability of prices. The results are also the same. Since April, the average transaction price of second-hand housing has remained stable for four consecutive months, with an average monthly fluctuation range of less than 1%.

The reason behind the stabilization of prices is related to the positive effects of policy release, the bottoming out of housing prices, and the restoration of buyers' confidence in the market. The lowering of the purchase threshold and the reduction of monthly repayment amounts have effectively eased the pressure on buyers to buy houses, and the wait-and-see mood has been alleviated, and the willingness to buy houses has been significantly enhanced.

Second-hand housing has stabilized and rebounded. Judging from the current feedback from the Beijing market, the two most obvious changes are the gradual reduction of bargaining space and the reduction of second-hand housing listings. The gradual reduction of bargaining space means that the expectations of sellers and buyers for prices are gradually approaching, which is a feature of the market bottoming out. The obvious reduction in the number of second-hand housing listings is a sign of the recovery of market confidence.

"The overall listing volume has decreased by about 20,000 units. This is the first time since September 2023." Zhang Dawei said that the overall second-hand housing listing volume has dropped from 172,000 units at the end of April this year to about 155,000 units now. The decrease in listings represents a significant reduction in market pre-emption.

Based on past experience, as long as Beijing's second-hand housing market "rises", the new housing market will definitely be hot. The hot second-hand housing market will most likely feed back to the new housing market. Recently, a Beijing Business Daily reporter also found that in the 30 days after the new policy, the number of visits to some new housing projects in Beijing increased significantly compared to before the new policy, and some popular projects continued to grow by more than 40%.

"From the current perspective, Beijing's regulatory policies are gradually shifting from universal and comprehensive down payment and interest rate cuts to precise regulation." Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo Institution, said that the "old for new" policy can be used to stimulate the transaction demand in the new housing market, and the adjustment of land auction rules can be used to stimulate the enthusiasm of real estate companies to bid for land. Starting from the source, in terms of the overall circulation and circulation of land, new housing and second-hand housing markets, a virtuous cycle of the property market, investment and consumption can be achieved, and the role of the market in the future will be more positive.