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July 28,FujianThe aircraft carrier returned to the Shanghai shipyard after completing the third "sea trial". The third "sea trial" of the Fujian aircraft carrier lasted for more than 20 days, which was much longer than the previous two times. So what did the Fujian aircraft carrier do during the 20 days? Lu Wenhao, a military expert on the island, made an inventory and believed that the content of the third "sea trial" of the Fujian aircraft carrier was basically the same as the previous two.Carrier-based aircraftIt is related to the landing of an aircraft carrier, including carrier-based aircraft accompanying the aircraft carrier and simulating the landing of an aircraft carrier; carrier-based aircraft conducting "shore-to-ship" take-off and landing, fleet air defense and sea control exercises, and the integration of data links and weapons and other systems; after complex activities at sea, testing whether the aircraft carrier's power, machinery, and electricity can continue to operate.

On July 28, the Fujian aircraft carrier completed its third "sea trial" and returned to Changxing Island, Shanghai from the Bohai Sea.

Lu Wenhao also predicted that the next "sea trial" may be 16 to 23 days later, and the task of the next "sea trial" may be related to carrier-based aircraft. The next "sea trial" may take longer, and will repeatedly test the basic systems of the aircraft carrier and the ship-borne catapult, take-off and landing operations. In short, the speed of the Fujian aircraft carrier's formation is accelerating. Let's take a detailed inventory of what the Fujian aircraft carrier's third "sea trial" tested?

1. The Fujian aircraft carrier returned to Shanghai on July 28, and the third "sea trial" was completed

According to the Global Times, on July 27, the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning, and the next day, on July 28, traffic control was implemented at the entrance of a deep-water channel for large ships at the Yangtze River estuary. Seeing this content, the outside world immediately understood: the Fujian aircraft carrier has completed its third "sea trial" and is returning to the Shanghai Shipyard.

It is also very interesting to say that when the outside world observes when the Fujian ship will start "sea trials" and when it will end "sea trials", they often keep a close eye on the navigation control information released by the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration. The reason is very simple. The shipyard of the Fujian aircraft carrier is in Shanghai. If the Fujian ship is going to go out to sea for "sea trials", the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration must issue relevant navigation control notices in advance. After all, it is not a trivial matter for an aircraft carrier to leave the factory and go out for "sea trials" through the Yangtze River estuary. And from the signs of the Fujian ship preparing for "sea trials" in the previous few times, everyone has also summed up a rule: as long as the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration releases similar content such as "traffic control of a large ship at the entrance of a deep-water channel" in the navigation information, it is basically related to the Fujian aircraft carrier, either going out to sea or returning to the shipyard.

As China's first catapult-type aircraft carrier and the world's second electromagnetic catapult-type aircraft carrier, the Fujian's "sea trial" has always attracted much attention. First of all, the progress of the "sea trial" is related to when the aircraft carrier can be put into service. When it comes to service, I'm afraid Taiwan is the most concerned, because this mainly involves whether the PLA's military strength is mature enough to fight against Taiwan.

In the past, when Taiwan Island was judging whether the PLA’s military strength to take over Taiwan was mature, a very important criterion was that it must be equipped with at least three aircraft carrier battle groups. These aircraft carrier battle groups would be deployed in different directions around Taiwan Island, or carry out the tasks of "blockading" and "isolating" Taiwan, or carry out military strikes against Taiwan; or deny the US military's intervention from different directions.

Taiwan attaches great importance to the Fujian ship. They believe that the Fujian ship will be their biggest "threat" after it is put into service.

Judging from the number of aircraft carriers currently in service of the People's Liberation Army, the Fujian happens to be the third one. In other words, when the Fujian is commissioned, the Taiwan authorities may tremble.

In addition, Taiwan has always been concerned about the combat effectiveness of the Fujian ship.Liaoning、ShandongUnlike the Fujian ship, the carrier-based aircraft it carries are more powerful and have a higher frequency of catapults, which means that its combat capability is stronger. In the past, the Taiwan military had "specially marked" the Fujian ship and regarded it as an "important threat."

Secondly, everyone also wants to see the mysteriousJ-35This fighter is considered to be another carrier-based stealth fighter in the world, and it is considered to be a counterpart to the "carrier-based version of the Lightning" (F-35C).

Third, everyone also wants to take this opportunity to see how the electromagnetic catapult performance of the Fujian ship is. The USS Ford is the world's first aircraft carrier to use electromagnetic catapults, but "high technology means high risk". The Ford aircraft carrier encountered many problems during the test, and carrier-based aircraft often encountered catapult failures during the catapult process. This made the outside world question whether the current electromagnetic catapult technology is still immature. So they want to use the Fujian ship's "sea trial" to see specifically whether the electromagnetic catapult technology is mature.

Regarding the third "sea trial" of the Fujian aircraft carrier, the outside world initially believed that it might be tested in the waters near Shanghai. In addition, when the Fujian aircraft carrier went out to sea for the third "sea trial" in early July, the Zhejiang Maritime Safety Administration also issued relevant navigation warnings and specially marked military exercises, which was interpreted by the outside world as: this military exercise might be in conjunction with the third "sea trial" of the Fujian aircraft carrier. But the subsequent situation was different from what was imagined. If the third "sea trial" was really conducted in the waters around Shanghai, the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration should have set up relevant maritime "no-fly zones" in advance, but this news has not appeared. Instead, the Dalian Maritime Safety Administration issued a "no-fly zone" in the Bohai Sea, which means that the Fujian aircraft carrier must have gone north to the Bohai Sea for the third "sea trial".

(II) The third sea trial: the Fujian ship was mainly based in the Bohai Sea

During the third "sea trial" of the Fujian aircraft carrier, some related satellite images were exposed at different time periods. For example, during the "sea trial" of the Fujian aircraft carrier, relevant pictures showed that two models of carrier-based aircraft appeared on the deck of the aircraft carrier. At first, the outside world was speculating whether this was the legendary J-35. Later, experts on the island determined through observation and comparison that this should be the catapult version of the J-15 (J-15T).

Everyone has been paying close attention to when the legendary J-35 stealth carrier-based fighter will be deployed on the Fujian ship.

Satellite images from July 19 also showed that several Type 052D guided-missile destroyers appeared within 20 kilometers of the Fujian aircraft carrier.Destroyer, frigate (054A). Regarding this, Zhang Yanting, former deputy commander of the Taiwan Air Force, believes that the equipment of the Fujian aircraft carrier battle group is gradually being put in place, and the future will be055 Large DestroyerLeading the way, the 052D destroyer and frigate (054A) are escorting, and there is a submarine behind to do underwater sweeps. Everything is ready. Then when the carrier-based aircraft's air strike capability is complete, the water will also be formed. This is a combined action to prepare for the Fujian aircraft carrier battle group in advance.

This time, the Fujian ship carried a model of a carrier-based aircraft and stayed in the Bohai Sea for "sea trials". Everyone has been wondering whether there will be a catapult launch test on board during this process. Zheng Jiwen, a senior military expert on the island and editor-in-chief of "Asia-Pacific Defense Magazine", analyzed the training location and the equipment on board and judged that the Fujian ship should be conducting a "touch-and-go" this time to let the pilots adapt to the new deck. As for catapult take-off, it is not likely at present.

He explained in a local program that the length of the Fujian ship's "sea trial" was beyond everyone's expectations. In response to the relevant alerts issued for its sea trial, the time was originally only until July 24, but as of now everyone can see that the ship has new exercise subjects, and satellite images show that many escort ships have appeared near it.

The Fujian ship is located in the northern waters of the Bohai Bay, which makes people think that this "sea trial" is related to the take-off and landing of carrier-based aircraft. Because the Xingcheng base in the northern Bohai Bay is less than 100 kilometers away from the Fujian ship's "sea trial" site, the base has a land ski-jump deck and is the place where the PLA's carrier-based aircraft conduct land take-off and landing training; in addition, the J-35's research and development base is in Shenyang, which is very close to the Fujian aircraft carrier, so it is generally believed that the Fujian ship's "sea trial" in the Bohai Bay is related to the take-off and landing training of carrier-based aircraft.

However, take-off and landing training may involve some, but not all. According to his observations and the information he has learned, the Fujian aircraft carrier is not yet equipped with "arresting cables" and its landing system is incomplete. The most likely training mode is "touch and go", that is, the fighter immediately takes off after touching the ground. As pilots of carrier-based aircraft such as the J-15T, J-35 and KJ-600, they need to adapt to the deck type, size, and landing procedures of the Fujian. As for catapult take-off, it is not possible at present.

During the third "sea trial", the Fujian ship once again "went to the far seas", heading directly from Shanghai to the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea.

It is worth noting that during this process, Lu Wenhao, a military expert on the island, discovered that after the Fujian aircraft carrier finished its "sea trial" in the northern Yellow Sea on July 12, it immediately moved to the Bohai Sea to conduct carrier-based aircraft catapults, landings, and joint training for aircraft carrier formations. From July 20 to 26, it returned to the northern Yellow Sea to conduct the second phase of "military activities" for the third long-distance "sea trial." The itinerary was so hurried and active that the Fujian aircraft carrier had to be concerned.

Lu Wenhao said: On July 14, the Fujian aircraft carrier moved from the north of the Yellow Sea to the inner side of the Bohai Sea, and its location was very close to Xingcheng, Liaoning. During this process, the KJ-600 was suspected to have appeared, and on July 17, it was suspected that the electromagnetic catapult mission of the J-15T was carried out. Therefore, Lu Wenhao made a comprehensive inference: The Fujian aircraft carrier may have completed the three-stage inspection of the carrier-based aircraft take-off and landing capabilities. From July 10 to 17, it set off from the land base (Xingcheng City) for a "touch and go" and then returned to the base, arrested the ship when departing from the base, and finally launched the catapult and arrested the recovery.

Satellite images from July 19 also showed that the Fujian aircraft carrier and several warships will form a future aircraft carrier-centered air defense and sea control and anti-submarine fleet screen in terms of hardware. It is speculated that they may be conducting early joint training for aircraft carrier formations. In terms of software, they are centered on network information and are conducting tests on battlefield situation awareness systems that integrate aircraft carrier fleet data link transmission and intelligence monitoring and reconnaissance.

On July 19, the Dalian Maritime Safety Administration issued another navigation notice, prohibiting ships from entering the waters southeast of Dalian due to military missions from July 20 to July 26. After searching, Lu Wenhao found that the prohibited navigation area this time was the same as the area where the Fujian aircraft carrier conducted its third long-distance sea trial in the waters southeast of Dalian from July 4 to 12. Therefore, Lu Wenhao judged that the Fujian aircraft carrier may have immediately moved from the Bohai Sea to the northern Yellow Sea for the second phase of the third sea trial, which demonstrated the high-speed maneuvering transfer and on-the-spot training capabilities of the "Fujian" aircraft carrier.

(III) Review of the subjects of the third sea trial of the Fujian ship

On July 28, the Fujian ship returned to Shanghai, and the third "sea trial" officially came to an end. From the above information, the inference of the third "sea trial" of the Fujian ship is all based on satellite images and public navigation information released by relevant departments, and the relevant content is messy and complicated. So what did the Fujian ship test in the third "sea trial"?

During the third "sea trial", what did the Fujian ship test and were the carrier-based aircraft put on board?

Lu Wenhao, a military expert on the island, published an article on Taiwan's "Exclusive Report" website, which reviewed the content of the third "sea trial" of the Fujian aircraft carrier. He wrote in the article: "Typhoon Kemi" gradually moved away from the Taiwan Strait. At 11 a.m. on July 27, the Dalian Maritime Safety Administration quietly released information that the Fujian aircraft carrier would complete the third "sea trial" and return to the Changxing Island dock for rest. On July 3, traffic control was implemented at the exit of the deep-water channel of the Yangtze River Estuary in Shanghai. On July 4, a "no-fly zone" appeared in the southeast of Dalian. On July 28, the Fujian aircraft carrier returned to Shanghai. Strictly speaking, this time the Fujian aircraft carrier conducted a total of 23 days of far-sea "sea trials".

During these 23 days, according to the information released by all parties, we can preliminarily summarize the following items tested by the Fujian ship: First, carrier-based aircraft accompanied the Fujian aircraft carrier; simulated aircraft carrier landing, so that pilots could be familiar with the landing work of the Fujian aircraft carrier in advance, and prepare for the next catapult take-off and landing; second, the carrier-based aircraft on the deck of the Fujian ship and the carrier-based aircraft in the "Carrier-based Aircraft Comprehensive Test and Training Base" in Xingcheng, Liaoning, conducted "shore-to-ship" take-off and landing, fleet air defense and sea control exercises, and data link and weapon system integration, which was to further familiarize pilots with the deck take-off and landing of catapult-type aircraft carriers, and prepare for the future dual aircraft carriers landing in advance; third, after completing these two military activities, they returned to the northern Yellow Sea to carry out the second "sea trial" military tasks: small radius rotation, sharp turn, and high-speed navigation test. The two carrier-based aircraft on the ship did not fall into the sea during high-speed navigation and turning, and the test was a great success, verifying that after a long period of complex military activities and tasks of the aircraft carrier at sea, the power, machinery and electricity of the aircraft carrier can still maintain normal operation.

Lu Wenhao also took the opportunity to review the first two "sea trials" that the Fujian ship has conducted: the first "sea trial" lasted for 8 days, mainly carried out in the waters near Shanghai, and mainly conducted "near-sea" tests on the aircraft carrier's power and power systems; the second "sea trial" lasted from May 24 to June 11, a total of 19 days, mainly for "far sea" power tests in the waters southeast of Dalian: continuous high-speed 180-degree sharp turns, turning radius reduced to 3.4 kilometers, repeated tests of figure-8 navigation, high-speed 28 knots (first) speed and 30 knots maximum speed test, (Z)-shaped turns, reversing and other basic tactical actions to test the crew's control capabilities and the aircraft carrier's power system.

The third "sea trial" lasted 23 days. Judging from the trend of this number, it is obviously increasing. Lu Wenhao believes that the time for the next "sea trial" may be extended. Similarly, the projects of the next "sea trial" may be more complicated, including repeated testing of the above-mentioned aircraft carrier systems and ship-borne catapults and take-off and landing operations. The complexity will gradually increase, and it will move towards the detection of rapid deployment in war zone operations, transfers, and the speed of deployment of various types of carrier-based aircraft.

If we look at it from this point of view, it seems that a certain number of carrier-based aircraft may be on board next time, but whether the J-35 will be on board specifically, I am afraid this will require further observation.

The next sea trial of the Fujian aircraft carrier may still be conducted in Bohai Sea, and the focus of the sea trial may be on carrier-based aircraft.

Regarding when the fourth "sea trial" will begin, Lu Wenhao said: The first "sea trial" was 16 days apart from the second "sea trial", and the second "sea trial" was 23 days apart from the third "sea trial". Judging from this time interval, it is speculated that the next "sea trial" should be 16 to 23 days apart from the third "sea trial". In short, it should be at least half a month, so that the relevant personnel involved in the ship and the shipyard can discuss the "sea trial" of the aircraft carrier, rest and prepare.

Lu Wenhao also said: The next time the Fujian aircraft carrier "sea trial" may have to go north to the Bohai Sea. There are three main reasons. First, the Bohai Sea belongs to the inland sea of ​​the mainland, and it will be very difficult for foreign military aircraft to conduct reconnaissance, which can ensure the safety of the Fujian aircraft carrier "sea trial"; second, there is a carrier-based aircraft base in Xingcheng in the north of the Bohai Sea, which is conducive to the subsequent carrier-based aircraft take-off and landing test of the Fujian aircraft carrier; third, the relevant military projects carried out in the second "sea trial" may require the Fujian aircraft carrier to return north to the Bohai Sea.