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「Core Tips」
Is there someone monitoring and calculating the accounts behind every unmanned retail counter that closes and leaves? How much room for imagination is there in the smart vending machine business?

Author | Zhao Ruoci

Editor | Xing Yun

Previously, Amazon's famous unmanned store project "Just Walk Out" was exposed to have 1,000 Indians watching the camera behind it, marking and settling prices through video.

Coincidentally, the smart retail lockers that are spread across subways and offline shopping malls in China's first- and second-tier cities are often questioned as to whether there are "people behind the scenes."

When consumers use traditional vending machines, they need to press buttons, select drinks, scan codes or pay with coins, and then drop items to make their purchase. However, in the smart vending machines that are common on the market today, consumers can directly scan codes to open the cabinet door through mini-programs, close the door and leave after selecting the items, and the payment system in the mobile phone will automatically deduct the fees.

However, when the backstage perspective of the smart vending machine spread on the Internet, it shattered many netizens' fantasies about "intelligence": the surveillance camera can clearly see which product the consumer took, and the backstage operator will judge through the video and press the corresponding price on the computer, and then the consumer will receive the deduction information on his mobile phone.

So, are there people behind the smart vending machines? Is “no one” real intelligence or just a false concept?

1. The artificial “nanny” behind intelligence

"I bought a bowl of instant noodles and a pack of chicken feet, but I wasn't charged for the chicken feet. Then I knew that a young man would be charged." Xiao Xin, who has consulted on the backend cash register system of smart vending machines, told Leopard Change.

Xiao Xin's description seems to once again confirm the Internet meme that originated from reality:"Artificial intelligence may also be 'artificial intelligence'."

For example, "If I block the camera, how can I tell what I bought? If many people reach out and take a lot of goods at the same time, can the machine still recognize it?" Many people have such thoughts when using smart vending machines that open the door and automatically check out by scanning a code. In the "Product Identification Rules" operated by the backend of the smart vending machine, these behaviors are all "manually" determined as "unfriendly behaviors."

Part-time workers who are paid by the piece are hidden behind the cameras of smart containers. Xiao Xin said that one account is responsible for dozens of machines, and the remote control perspective is a series of shopping videos.

If you work fast, you can complete an order in a few seconds. However, this part-time job that seems simple and easy to get started and can earn some pocket money at home is not that easy to do.

Xiao Xin's employer clearly stated that the salary package was 9 cents per job, and training was required before she could start work. "There are 300 simulation questions in one round, and you can start working if you get 97% correct. But you have to finish three rounds. If you still want to do it, you can continue to do it."

But what persuaded Xiao Xin to quit was not the low salary, butHigh fines"If you make a mistake on one order, you will be fined 5 to 10 yuan, which means that you have done dozens of orders in vain."

Some netizens shared their similar part-time job experiences on social platforms, saying that "staring at the screen all the time is too tiring, and you may only make a few dollars a day after deductions." At the same time, searching for "vending machine video labeler" on social platforms such as Xiaohongshu, you can find many recruitment posts. Some netizens left a message below to remind you that "I have consulted, and some require a deposit of 298 yuan."

In fact, Leopard Change learned thatThere are indeed similar smart vending machines on the market that complete checkout through monitoring and manual remote control, but they cannot be called a mainstream phenomenon.

Wang Yu, a former employee of Yuanqi Forest Marketing Department, said that there are generally two modes of real smart vending cabinets: one isWeighing identification,This type of vending machine has a low technical threshold, but it cannot hold products of the same weight but different prices.Capture via video,The development threshold of this type of machine is relatively high, and the cost of the corresponding equipment is also relatively high.

"Companies like Yuanqi Forest and Fenge Food, which have large companies behind them and sufficient funds to support technology development, do not remotely arrange manual settlements in the backend. They are genuine 'smart containers'. However, some unknown small companies on the market, in order to save costs, will put on a 'smart' shell and use cheap piece-rate labor to replace this part of the function."

2. Is smart vending machine a profitable business?

The story of unmanned intelligent vending machines and human "nannies" is ultimately a trade-off in operating costs: intelligence is too expensive, while manual labor is cheaper.

In recent years, China's unmanned vending machines have been developing rapidly. Especially after the rise of the "new retail" concept in 2017, Internet players and traditional retail giants have successively entered the unmanned retail market, bringing the vending machine industry into the intelligent era.

There are various opinions in the industry thatThe channel value of smart vending machines is unique. With 24-hour operation and less labor and space costs, they can solve the immediate and random offline consumer needs and break the pain points of high rents and labor costs in traditional retail.

According to data such as the "In-depth Research Report on the Operation Status and Investment Planning of China's Vending Machine Industry from 2024 to 2029", the scale of China's vending machine market has reached 28.908 billion yuan in 2022. It is estimated that by 2024, the transaction scale of China's vending machine market will reach 100 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 30%.

However, just as some smart vending machines mentioned above still rely on manual labor, more cost issues emerge in the development of smart vending machines, which can be seen from the financial data of Ubox, China's largest vending machine distributor.

The financial report and prospectus show that Ubox Online's main business segments are divided into unmanned retail business, advertising and system support services, commodity wholesale, and vending machine sales and leasing. Among them, the unmanned retail business (pick-up cabinets, beverage vending machines, beverage and snack vending cabinets, and freshly made beverage vending machines) had revenue of 2.03 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 76.1%.

But it is worth noting that from 2019 to 2023, Ubox's net profit was 40 million yuan, -1.18 billion yuan, -190 million yuan, -280 million yuan and -319 million yuan respectively. From 2020 to 2023, Ubox has been in a loss-making state, with a cumulative loss of nearly 1.929 billion yuan in four years.

From the financial report data, we can see that Ubox's gross profit margins reached 41%, 43% and 41% in 2021-2023 respectively, and remained above 40% all year round, but its net profit margin was only -7%, -11% and -12%.

High gross profit and low net profit are typical characteristics of the retail business. Although unmanned smart vending machines are under the banner of unmanned, they still cannot escape the essence of the retail industry.Behind this isHigh sales costsErosion of profits.

Financial data shows that from 2020 to 2023, Ubox's sales expense ratio will be 56.9%, 40.3%, 45.9% and 42.1% respectively. The company's sales expense ratio is high mainly because of the high proportion of sales and marketing expenses.Site operation and development expenses account for about half.Others include employee benefit expenses, logistics and transportation expenses, depreciation, etc.

In Ubox's unmanned retail business, a large amount of money is needed to purchase and maintain unmanned vending machines, as well as site rental fees. Although vending machines can save some labor costs, regular replenishment, logistics, and maintenance are inevitable.

Therefore, in order to solve some of the cost problems, Ubox switched from a direct sales model to a "partnership model" similar to franchising in 2020. Point partners can choose to buy or rent Ubox online vending machines. However, in 2023, the number of Ubox partners was only 1,932, accounting for about 3% of the total number.

When it comes to consumers, the relatively high input costs make the retail prices not so "attractive". Leopard Change found that the price of Baishuishan bottled water, which normally sells for 3 yuan, is automatically deducted from a vending machine at 4.49 yuan. A bottle of Jiaguoyuan coconut water is deducted for 10.25 yuan, while the average price of the same drink on JD.com is 5-6 yuan per bottle, and the product prices are almost 50% more expensive.

3. Where is the unmanned concept heading?

The concept of "unmanned" is in full swing. In the unmanned retail industry, smart vending machines are indeed the first "small business" to be implemented in a down-to-earth manner.

Although the investment cost is not as low as expected, the potential of this "small business" is favored by many business giants. The current leading players in the industry, such as Ubox Online, have received support from investors including Ant Group. "Feng e Zu Shi" is a new retail brand incubated by SF Express Group, relying on SF Express's logistics and supply chain support to build a new retail service network. In addition, in May this year, "Quzhi Group", which focuses on vending machines, was officially listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and was called the "first stock in AI interactive marketing."

Open the "Feng e Zu Shi" applet, and you can already see the advertising placement of brands such as "Ding Dong Mai Cai". All automatic retail cabinet companies are expanding other advertising and marketing businesses to add value on the basis of selling goods. In addition to companies specializing in automatic retail business, many consumer companies have also joined the game. In offline shopping malls, subway stations, etc. in first- and second-tier cities, you can already see many automatic vending machines of consumer brands such as Yuanqi Forest and Pop Mart.

It is worth mentioning that for consumer brands, setting up offline smart retail cabinets is not just for selling goods.

Take Pop Mart as an example. Compared to an unmanned small supermarket, the eye-catching orange cabinet and bright logo make Pop Mart's smart vending machine more like a huge billboard. Half of each Pop Mart smart vending machine is used to display the goods in the cabinet or the new products of the season. Therefore, placing a machine in a busy area can not only directly bring in revenue,It also saves a huge amount of advertising costs.

Yuanqi Forest's strategy also provides new ideas for consumer brands. As of 2023, Yuanqi Forest's smart cabinets have set up nearly 30,000 smart cabinets in 15 cities across the country and achieved full profitability in September of the same year.

Consumers' tastes are constantly changing, from milk tea to light milk tea to zero-sugar tea, and beverage brands need to be extremely sensitive to the market. For brands like Yuanqi Forest, the layout of vending machines also plays a supporting role in the company's main business.

It is understood that in addition to selling goods and advertising, Yuanqi Forest's large number of offline smart counters also play the role of "testing products". For example, whenever a new product is launched,The sales situation of offline smart counters can be used as first-hand data for instant feedback, so as to adjust the distribution strategy in real time.

Smart vending machines are still evolving and changing, and the ceiling of unmanned retail also requires players to continue to break through in practice.