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Economic Observer reporter Zhang Ying On July 22, a piece of news that "people born after 1990, regardless of gender, have to retire at the age of 65" circulated on the Internet, attracting widespread attention.

Many netizens linked this news to the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reforms and Promoting Chinese-style Modernization" (hereinafter referred to as the "Decision") issued on July 21.

In fact, the Decision only proposed "promoting the gradual delay of the statutory retirement age reform in a voluntary and flexible manner" and did not provide a specific plan for delaying retirement. The content circulated online is not an official policy.

Yuan Xin, a professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University, has been engaged in population economics research for a long time and is a famous Chinese demographer. He told Economic Observer that delaying retirement has long been written into the "14th Five-Year Plan". Under the programmatic document such as the "Decision", it is expected that relevant departments will soon announce specific plans for delaying retirement.

Yuan Xin believes that the current retirement age system has long been out of line with the reality of population and socio-economic development. At a time when life expectancy has increased by more than 30 years compared to 70 years ago and jobs are no longer dominated by physical labor, it is reasonable to gradually delay retirement. In fact, the retirement age in most developed countries around the world is 65 years old or above.

He said that China has entered a moderately aging society and will enter a severely aging society in the future, and everyone should accept and adapt to this new normal.

|Interview|

Economic Observer: The Decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee proposed to promote the gradual delay of the statutory retirement age reform in a prudent and orderly manner in accordance with the principles of voluntariness and flexibility. How should it be interpreted?

Original:Voluntary means that you can voluntarily choose between the current statutory retirement age and the later statutory retirement age. Flexibility means that you have a certain degree of flexibility in work location, working hours, nature of work, type of work, and even salary and benefits.

Why do we need gradual reform? The most basic principle of the introduction of social policies is that the impact and fluctuations on the entire society should be as small as possible. If the retirement age is lowered from 60 to 62 within a year, it means that the labor market will suddenly increase by 30 to 40 million people. Can jobs be provided?

Therefore, the replenishment of the labor force should be a gradual process, so that the impact on the employment system arrangements of the entire society will be smooth and peaceful.

From an individual perspective, those who are about to retire should be made to feel that delaying retirement is a slow process, so that it will be easier for more people to accept. If a person is supposed to retire on January 1 next year, and the policy requires a two-month delay in retirement, this person will easily accept it, but if he is suddenly told that he can only retire two years later, he may find it very abrupt.

For people of different age groups, the retirement policy should be implemented step by step. For example, people born in 1964 should delay their retirement by two months, and people born in 1965 should delay their retirement by four months. The latter group of people will actually delay their retirement by two months after accepting the retirement time of their predecessors, so the impact will be smaller.

Economic Observer: Why is it necessary to delay retirement?

Original:The reason is simple. The current retirement age was set more than 70 years ago, when the average life expectancy of Chinese people was only about 45 years old. Now it has reached 78.2 years.

We have entered an era of longevity, with people born in the 1980s and 1990s living to over 80 years old. It is unreasonable for the retirement age to remain at an average of 40 to 50 years old. Over the past 70 years, our retirement age has not changed substantially, which does not conform to the reality of population development and economic and social development.

Secondly, the retirement age more than 70 years ago was also set according to the economic environment at the time. In the early stages of the founding of New China, almost everyone was engaged in heavy physical labor, with a very low degree of mechanization, and could only rely on physical strength. For example, at that time, roads, railways, and water conservancy projects were all carried on shoulders and pulled by hand. Of course, a person in his 60s could not carry stones or wield a shovel. But today, modern large machines such as excavators, shield machines, bridge erectors, and track erectors only require pressing buttons. In other words, with the development of mechanization, technology, and intelligence, the labor scene or the nature of labor has reduced physical requirements, which has actually relaxed the conditions for employment for the elderly and reflected the age inclusiveness of labor.

Third, with the rapid development of the country's education, the overall number of years of education for the population has been increasing, and the age of entering the labor market has been continuously postponed. What does it mean if retirement is not delayed? The remaining life span after retirement is increasing, but the time used to create wealth in the life cycle is decreasing. The higher the level of education, the less time is used to make contributions in life. I think this life trajectory is very unreasonable.

For doctoral students, according to the current school system, they start school at the age of 7, study for 23 years to obtain a doctorate, and start working at the age of 30. Women retire at the age of 55, having worked for 25 years, while men retire at the age of 60, having worked for 30 years. The average remaining life expectancy of women after retiring at the age of 55 is 28-29 years, while that of men after retiring at the age of 60 is 20-21 years.

In other words, if you receive 23 years of education, use 25 to 30 years to create wealth, and finally have 21 to 29 years of retirement time, is this a suitable ratio?

Now that life expectancy has extended to this extent, wouldn’t it be a good thing to appropriately delay the retirement age and reflect the value of education and longevity?

Economic Observer: Is it possible that a specific plan to delay retirement will be introduced in the near future?

Original:China's retirement age originated from the Labor Insurance Regulations formulated in 1951, which stipulated that female employees and cadres should retire at the age of 50, and male employees and cadres should retire at the age of 60. In 1978, the State Council issued new regulations to adjust the retirement age of female cadres to 55. Some units can also adjust the retirement age according to their own circumstances, mainly colleges and universities, research institutes, hospitals, etc. In fact, these places have been gradually delaying retirement, and many university professors now retire at the age of 65.

However, the delay in retirement as a formal system was first proposed in the 2013 "Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reforms", which originally stated "to study and formulate a policy of gradually delaying the retirement age". By 2021, the country's "14th Five-Year Plan" clearly proposed to gradually delay the statutory retirement age in accordance with the principles of "small-step adjustment, flexible implementation, classified promotion, and overall consideration" to promote the full utilization of human resources.

Being written into the "14th Five-Year Plan" means that it has become a specific task to be implemented, and of course it should be implemented during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2021-2025).

Economic Observer: Some people believe that the policy of delaying retirement is implemented because of pension shortage.

Original:impossible.

Some studies have pointed out that pension insurance funds will be insufficient to cover expenses by around 2030. Whether retirement is delayed or not, this problem will come, it is just a matter of sooner or later.

Why are pensions not enough to cover expenses? This is caused by the contradiction between system design and changes in population structure, which is bound to be insufficient to cover expenses. It is the same all over the world. The global pension insurance system is established on the basis of a young and adult society. In that era, there were more people paying and fewer people receiving, so it was of course sustainable. As the aging population becomes more and more serious, there are more and more people receiving and fewer and fewer people paying, which is of course unsustainable.

Therefore, it is very important to deepen the reform of the basic pension insurance system, and the government will have revised policies to solve the problem of tight pension insurance funds in the future. In fact, the "14th Five-Year Plan" has already written "improve the transfer of state-owned capital to enrich the social security fund system, optimize and strengthen the social security strategic reserve fund", "develop a multi-level, multi-pillar pension insurance system, increase the coverage rate of enterprise annuities, and standardize the development of the third pillar pension insurance".

Economic Observer: Some people find it difficult to accept the delay in retirement.

Original:Before the Industrial Revolution, the average life expectancy was around 30 years old worldwide, and around 35 years old in developed countries. The extension of human life span has only happened in the past 200 years. Now the average life expectancy in developed countries has reached 79-80 years old, and China is getting closer and closer to the level of developed countries.

As people live longer, many countries are experiencing a decline in birthrates, and developed countries were the first to do so. In the 1950s, the fertility rate in developed countries had basically dropped to around 2.5 children. Now the average fertility rate in developed countries is around 1.6.

Before the founding of New China, our average life expectancy was 35 years old, and now it is 78.2 years old; in the 1950s and 1960s, we had an average of 6 children, and now the average is less than 1.3 children.

In this process, what we have in common with developed countries is that we are all on the road to longer life expectancy and lower birthrates, but our personality is that we are running faster and more urgently than developed countries.

In the process of coping with population aging, developed countries have made a series of preparations, such as postponing the retirement age and using economic advantages to accept international immigrants.

However, China has a large population base, and it is not realistic to rely on international immigration to adjust our population size and structure. Therefore, delaying retirement is a feasible way for us to cope with population aging.

We are already in a moderately aging society, and everyone should take the initiative to adapt. Don't expect to return to a young or adult society, because it's impossible to go back. In the 1950s and 1960s, the land of China was full of children, and now and in the future, it will be full of old people.

A deeply aging society has become the new normal and the underlying tone of future economic and social development. The economic development system and social governance system built on young and adult societies are becoming increasingly difficult to adapt to an aging society. We urgently need a multi-dimensional, in-depth, long-term and comprehensive economic and social transformation and reform that is adapted to the needs of the aging population.

Economic Observer: What are the regulations on retirement age in other countries?

Original:The retirement age in most developed countries is around 65. At the same time, many countries have formulated new policies in recent years to continue to raise the retirement age in the future. For example, the United States has formulated a gradual extension of the retirement age for people of different ages from the current 65 years old.

In Japan, people generally retire between the ages of 65 and 70. The government's requirements for companies are not one-size-fits-all. Companies can set the retirement age at over 70, but they must provide basic protection for employees. Some people say that Japan is a country with no retirement age.

In addition, in most countries, men and women retire at the same age. Some people think that the current retirement system for men and women in our country is gender-discriminatory, but in fact the original intention was to set up a gender-friendly system.

In the 1950s and 1960s, most people were engaged in manual labor, and the average family had 4-6 children. Women had to balance family and work, so they could retire early. Now, with the improvement of women's education conditions, employment and income conditions, there is no physical difference between men and women in many jobs, and it is reasonable to retire at the same age for men and women.