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[Global Times special correspondent Xie Zhao] The world's first fifth-generationfighterIt has been more than 20 years since the first flight of the F-22. As more and more countries have introduced and deployed fifth-generation fighter jets, the subsequent development of sixth-generation fighter jets has also been put on the agenda of many countries. However, recent news shows that the development projects of the sixth-generation fighter jets of many countries have fallen into difficulties.

US Air Force NGAD suspended

According to the U.S. Aviation Weekly on the 21st, U.S. Air Force Secretary Kendall revealed at the Royal International Air Show in the UK on the 20th that the U.S. Air Force has suspended the "Next Generation Air Superiority Fighter" (NGAD) project and is reviewing it to ensure that it can cope with the "severe challenges posed by the People's Liberation Army."

The report said that the U.S. Air Force initially envisioned developing a series of derivative models based on this sixth-generation fighter. NGAD plans to replace the U.S. Air Force's most powerful F-22 Raptor fifth-generation fighter in service in the 1930s. When NGAD was first proposed, the U.S. Air Force had high expectations for it, requiring it to have unparalleled stealth capabilities, even the most advancedradarIt will also be difficult to detect its whereabouts, and it will also be equipped with onboard artificial intelligence that can process large amounts of data collected from the latest sensors. Although the U.S. Air Force has maintained a high level of secrecy about the actual progress of NGAD, Pentagon officials have previously revealed that its prototype may have already made its first flight. Kendall has also repeatedly stated that NGAD is "progressing smoothly."

Concept image of the sixth-generation fighter jet of the US Air Force

Aviation Week mentioned that the U.S. Air Force is facing significant cost overruns on several important and expensive projects, such as the Sentinel intercontinental missile and the B-21 Raider stealth bomber project. For example, the cost of the Sentinel intercontinental missile has exceeded 81%, and the total budget will reach $141 billion. Since these projects are the main pillars of the U.S. "Triad" nuclear force, the NGAD project may be threatened for the cash-strapped U.S. Air Force. To make matters worse, the cost of NGAD is also far over budget. Kendall revealed that its unit price is equivalent to three times that of the F-35 stealth fighter. The current cost of the F-35 is about $80 million to $100 million, which means that the unit price of NGAD may be close to $300 million, making it the most expensive fighter in the history of the new generation.

In addition to cost issues, another important reason for the U.S. Air Force to suspend NGAD is the need to reconsider whether it meets the needs of future air combat. Kendall emphasized in an interview that the NGAD project was a performance indicator determined before many problems were exposed, "before the real threat became so serious, before the CCA (unmanned wingman program) was introduced, and before the budget burden we are currently facing." He said, "So before moving forward, we will conduct a rigorous review of NGAD. Before determining the budget for 2026, we hope that everything is on the right track." Muradian, editor-in-chief of the U.S. Defense and Aerospace Report, said that NGAD is one of the capabilities that the U.S. Air Force is eager to obtain in order to more effectively deter China. Because "China is changing their combat mode, the U.S. Air Force with a limited budget faces a difficult question, that is, whether the tens of billions of dollars worth of programs are worth investing in, or whether there are other better ways to achieve the same goal."

Gertler, a senior analyst at the Teal Group, a U.S. aerospace and defense analysis company, revealed that the part the U.S. Air Force is preparing to re-evaluate is the core of the entire project - NGAD itself. It is speculated that in order to save costs, the U.S. Air Force may revise the basic design of NGAD, such as reducing the two engines originally equipped on the aircraft to one, in order to save upfront costs and long-term maintenance costs. Twin-engine fighters are much more expensive to purchase and operate, but they are more reliable, faster, and more deadly than single-engine fighters in a dogfight. At the same time, the U.S. Air Force originally planned to equip NGAD with advanced adaptive variable cycle engines, which can switch to different and more efficient configurations according to flight conditions, which can increase the fighter's range by about 30% and its endurance by about 40%. However, adaptive variable cycle engines are very expensive, becoming one of the main factors in the extremely high cost of NGAD. Now the U.S. Air Force is considering whether to switch to "smaller engines" to minimize prices.

US Navy cuts 90% of its spending

Compared with the US Air Force, the US Navy's sixth-generation fighter project is also in trouble. According to the draft of the US National Defense Authorization Act for the new fiscal year, the amount of funding for the development of the US Navy's next-generation carrier-based fighter project F/A-XX has dropped sharply from US$450 million this year to US$53.828 million, a decrease of nearly 97% compared to the US$1.53 billion requested by the US Navy in the previous fiscal year. The US National Interest website said that this suggests that the US Navy may consider suspending or terminating the development of the sixth-generation fighter.

The US Defense News mentioned on the 21st that the world's fighter jets have gone through five generations, from the subsonic F-86 Sabre fighter jets after World War II to the current F-35 stealth fighter jets. Many countries are currently developing sixth-generation fighter jets, which will represent a major technological leap. Retired US Air Force Lieutenant General Clint Heinault said in an interview with Defense News that although the exact definition of the sixth-generation fighter jets has not been finalized globally, experts have reached a consensus on its common attributes. Heinault and Heather Penny, a senior researcher at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies in the United States, both said that speed, stealth and long range are the most critical elements of the sixth-generation fighter jet, "especially if it needs to cross the long distance of the Pacific Ocean and enter the airspace controlled by China."

Concept image of the next generation carrier-based fighter jet of the US Navy

"For sixth-generation fighters, range and penetration are absolutely critical, especially when we consider the Pacific theater and China as the main threat," Penny said. Heinault said the F-35's performance indicators were basically formulated after the end of the Cold War. "It is a short-range fighter, which makes perfect sense for NATO because there are hundreds of runways in Europe for takeoff. But in the vast Pacific region, the situation is completely different."

The National Interest website stated that the US Navy's requirements for the F/A-XX clearly stated that it needs to have the characteristics of long range. Unlike the US Air Force's previous efforts to promote the full stealth of fighter jets, the US Navy is not in a hurry to update its carrier-based fighter jets due to the lack of sufficient opponents. Currently, the main carrier-based fighter jets are still traditional "Super Hornet" non-stealth fighters, and only a few aircraft carriers can take off and land F-35C carrier-based fighter jets. The US Navy believes that the combat radius and internal bomb bay of the F-35C are relatively limited, so for a long time in the future, the US Navy will be equipped with both the F-35C and the "Super Hornet". As for the next generation of F/A-XX fighter jets, there is insufficient motivation to replace them.

The U.S. website "Breaking Defense" said that the F/A-XX fighter jet was developed almost at the same time as the U.S. Air Force's NGAD, but the U.S. Navy only requires that the "Super Hornet" fighter jet be gradually replaced around 2040. In addition to Pentagon officials emphasizing that the U.S. Navy and Air Force have no intention of jointly developing the next-generation fighter, there are few details about what the F/A-XX might look like. A U.S. Navy spokesman revealed in August last year that "combat range, capability, long-range kill chain, autonomy and survivability are the next generation of the U.S. Navy."Carrier-based aircraftkey indicators.”

Regarding the significant cuts in the development costs of the F/A-XX fighter, senior US Navy officials said that this was a "deliberate choice" made to sacrifice future modernization in order to maintain the current high combat readiness. Although the US Navy said it still intends to develop the next generation of carrier-based fighters, it is currently giving priority to equipping existing models such as the F-35C fifth-generation fighter. The report claimed that "it is precisely in view of the possibility of a full-scale war with China that the US Navy will focus on more urgent priorities."

Japan and Europe have obvious differences in research on future fighter jets

In addition to the US Navy and Air Force, the next-generation fighter jet project jointly developed by Japan and Europe is also in trouble. According to a report by Japan's Kyodo News on the 21st, Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara will travel to the UK on the 22nd and will reiterate the importance of promoting the joint development of the next-generation fighter jet by Japan, the UK and Italy. The British "Times" revealed on the 19th that the newly-elected British Labour Party government may cancel the project due to concerns about the rising costs of related development.

According to the agreement reached by Japan, the United Kingdom and Italy in 2022, the three countries will jointly promote the "Global Air Combat Plan", which will be jointly led by the British BAE Systems, Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Italy's Leonardo. Based on the design of the British "Tempest" sixth-generation fighter, it will absorb the results of the Japanese X-2 "Mind" technology verification aircraft, as well as the Italian flight control software and "smart cockpit" design to create a new generation of fighters with artificial intelligence and network combat capabilities. The three countries plan to achieve the first flight of the prototype in 2027 and deploy this sixth-generation fighter by 2035. It will also be supported by "loyal unmanned wingman", new weapons and advanced data systems.

British Tempest fighter model

According to reports, the UK publicly exhibited a full-size model of the "Tempest" sixth-generation fighter as early as 2018, and then Italy also joined the plan, preparing to use it to replace the old "Tornado" fighter-bombers currently in service in the two countries' air forces. The Japanese Ministry of Defense announced the next-generation FX fighter project in 2019 to replace the F-2 fighter currently in service. However, since the development cost of the new fighter is too expensive and ordinary countries cannot afford it, Japan, Britain and Italy finally chose to jointly develop the sixth-generation fighter. It is worth mentioning that Japan chose to cooperate with Britain and Italy to develop the sixth-generation fighter, and also saw the intention of Britain and Italy to conduct joint research in the fields of engines and radars. Previously, due to the United States' refusal to share core technologies such as source code, Japan encountered difficulties in developing and modifying fighters such as F-2 and F-15.

Although Japan, Britain and Italy all believe that the sixth-generation fighter should be a "large multi-purpose twin-engine stealth fighter with ultra-long range, excellent missile loading capacity, powerful sensors and information network capabilities", the three parties have obvious differences in specific performance indicators: Britain and Italy require this fighter to be used for air control operations, with more emphasis on interception and air combat capabilities, while Japan hopes it can carry more ammunition to perform ground attack missions. Unlike the "US-led, multi-national funding" development model of the US F-35 stealth fighter, the "Global Air Combat Plan" is jointly led by the three countries, and they often argue when they encounter disagreements. Therefore, the promotion effect of the "Global Air Combat Plan" is not ideal, and the cost continues to increase.

At the same time, France, Germany and Spain in Europe are also jointly promoting another sixth-generation fighter project, but similar to the situation of the "Global Air Combat Program", because France needs this future fighter to perform long-range strikes and nuclear missions, which is completely different from the needs of the German Air Force, these differences have led to very slow progress in the project. In addition, Russia has also announced a plan to develop a sixth-generation fighter made of composite materials, but due to limited funds and the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the relevant plan has been stopped.