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As life expectancy increases, will longer working hours become inevitable?

2024-07-22

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The discussion about "delaying retirement" has once again become popular. We are reposting an interview (excerpt) with Linda Gratton, author of "The 100 Years of Living" during the 2021 epidemic. She talked about various choices about work and life, hoping to bring inspiration to the readers of the institute.

In 2020, the "Statistical Bulletin on the Development of my country's Health Care Industry in 2019" released by the National Health Commission of China showed that the average life expectancy of Chinese people has reached 77.3 years, and with the improvement of sanitary conditions and the advancement of medical technology, this number will continue to grow. The retirement age for Chinese people is 60 for men and 55 for women. People still have more than 20 years of life after retirement, which is even longer than the working time of many people. The financial accumulation during the working stage is not enough to support themselves in the retirement stage. The typical three-stage life model of "school, work, and retirement" may need to be re-examined.

Of course, this seems like a distant proposition for those of us working on the front lines. The more pressing anxiety seems to be the loss of sense of meaning in the fast-paced life and the 35-year-old crisis, all of which are uncertainties about the future.

With these questions, Tencent Research Institute had an in-depth discussion with Linda Gratton, author of "The 100-Year Life" and "The Long Life" and professor of organizational behavior at London Business School, on lifestyle, education and work models under the rapid changes in technology.


On the Self: “Human Subjectivity”

It’s about making the right choice.”

Tencent Research InstituteUnfortunately, more than 1 million people have lost their lives in this COVID-19 pandemic. Are you still optimistic about the trend of longevity?
Lynda GrattonYes. I've learned a lot more about the importance of staying healthy during this pandemic. This won't be the last pandemic we'll see in our lifetime, there will definitely be other pandemics, maybe from another country, but there will definitely be more pandemics. So we have to stay healthy. We all know that staying healthy is really just about two things, exercise and diet. If you want to stay healthy, you have to exercise about an hour a day. Again, this is the benefit of working from home, because working from home saves commuting time and you can spend an hour exercising to stay healthy. Secondly, people are more likely to eat healthy food when they are at home, but when they are in the office, they eat fast food and sandwiches. So, in fact, this new way of working may be a healthy way of working, after all, longevity means staying healthy.I think what COVID has done is reinforce the idea that we need to take control of our own health.
Tencent Research InstituteSome people also complained that working from home made them lose their regular rhythm of life and instead indulge in watching TV series and eating junk food.
Lynda GrattonLife is about making choices. I said in my book, 100 Years a Life, that people have to decide what kind of life they want to live, and that young people need to develop healthier habits. If they don't develop those healthy habits when they're young, then all the choices they make in life, the consequences will accumulate over time.
It's in everyone's best interest to develop healthy habits while working from home, meaning they take an hour a day to exercise and eat healthy foods.This is actually a question of human subjectivity, that is, what kind of person you want to be.
Tencent Research InstituteDoes longer life mean longer working hours?
Lynda GrattonYes, if a person lives for 100 years and maintains a normal savings rate, how long does he need to work? The answer is to work until his 70s, about 75. I don't think this is a problem, and this is why we start talking about multi-level life,To live what I call a multi-stage life means we have to be prepared to rearrange our time. We don't have to spend the last thirty years of our lives in retirement. We can reallocate that time and use it earlier. We can spend time with our children. If you want to have two children and live to be a hundred, why not spend more time with them when they are young?I think people should be more creative when thinking about the trajectory of their lives.

On technology and workforce:

"ProfessionSkills should evolve along with technology”

Tencent Research InstituteAs artificial intelligence becomes more prevalent, some jobs are gradually being replaced by machines and algorithms. Are you worried about the unemployment of the next generation?

Lynda GrattonYes, but not just the next generation. Overall, technology replaces human jobs, but it won't replace all jobs.

First, more and more low-skilled jobs will be more likely to be replaced by technology. This trend can already be seen in China, where automation technology is at the forefront of the world. Therefore, in Chinese factories, automation technology is often used in low-skilled and low-paid jobs.

Another problem is that when technology is introduced into a company, the people who are more likely to lose their jobs are those who are over 50. So it's not just affecting the younger generation, it's also affecting people over 50. We have to upgrade the skills of low-skilled workers and give them the opportunity to move into more skilled jobs, because automation tends to take over low-skilled jobs.Therefore, we must help those who do these jobs to improve their professional skills.It's a huge agenda for companies, but more importantly for the government, they have to support people in getting jobs. The Singapore government is a world leader in this: the government provides funding for every employee to upgrade their job skills and learn more. So the government has to play an important role here.

I think the popularity of distance learning during this pandemic, and even before the pandemic, is a miracle. Microsoft and IBM are developing a lot of online courses, all of which are free. The same is true in India, where the three major IT companies in India, Wipro, Infosys, and Tata Consultancy Service, work together to support the education of all citizens. They have established curriculum systems and trained hundreds of teachers to support children's learning.


About Education:

“Education shouldCultivate true experts

Tencent Research InstituteYou mentioned in your book that the demand for artists, designers, and media professionals will increase in the future. However, we find that many people around us are not good at these fields. So what kind of education can bring us more creativity and innovation in the future?
Lynda GrattonYes, that's a good question. Teaching creativity is a difficult thing. I think there are ways to teach creativity, and some of the best design schools in the world know how to do it. We just need to take the courses, don't we? Distance education is our way to these design schools that know how to help people be creative and productive, so that we can get a job or start our own business with a low education cost. But this extension of education needs to be very careful. Another book of mine, called Transformation, is about how to become an expert in a field.You have to really learn something in depth, not just dip into each area.If you know a little bit about everything but don't know it in depth, your brain is like Wikipedia. You have to know it in depth, which is what we call the T-shaped structure, where you can know a little bit about many things, but you have to know it in depth in one area.


About 996 and anxiety:

“Efficient workMore important than working longer hours.”

Tencent Research InstituteIs overtime work an inevitable trend for modern people?

Lynda GrattonThis is a really interesting question, and you have to ask yourself how productive you are. The concept of working hours was originally tied to manufacturing. If it was a repetitive job, the longer you worked on it, the more you would produce. But if you were a knowledge worker, writing or programming, it might be different. This is an important question for companies to ask themselves. If an employee worked 9 hours instead of 8 hours, would they be more productive? Actually, we don't know. There's not a lot of research to show this, but my theory based on my personal experience and understanding is that I can be very focused and very productive, but I can only work for 3 hours at a time. So when I write, I won't write for more than 5 hours. After 5 hours, my brain stops working. So one question that has to be asked is what are people actually doing during those long hours? Are they productive enough? If not, you need to think about it.

But there is a frame of reference for working hours. If people see older people working long hours, then they will also extend their working hours accordingly. I have said that I worked a lot in Japan, and there is a culture of "presenteeism" in Japan. Employees must stay in the office a lot. This is what they learned from their boss, and the boss learned it from his boss. So the impact of the new crown epidemic on Japanese companies is very significant, because people can no longer learn in person because of remote work. This is a very interesting phenomenon. Will people's work efficiency decrease as they work longer hours? I don't know. So, for knowledge workers, be cautious about overtime. I personally don't advocate overtime, and the same is true in my own company. I don't encourage employees to extend their working hours because they will be overdrawn. After all, we are a knowledge-based company. If you work too much overtime, people will want to leave or even suffer from mental illness. In any case, it's not worth it.

Tencent Research InstituteWe found that there is widespread anxiety about turning 35 in China. Many Internet companies have employees under the age of 35. Employees at the age of 35 may have higher salaries and more experience, but they are also more likely to lose their jobs because their jobs can be easily replaced by younger people. People become very nervous and worried as they age. What do you think about this?

Lynda GrattonFirst of all, I think as people get older, if they keep learning, their knowledge will increase. This doesn't mean that age necessarily leads to knowledge growth, but only if you keep learning. That's why lifelong learning is important. It's good to have older people around you, they have more experience, they are less self-centered, and more collaborative.

The second point, and this is particularly important for China, is that the 35-year-old anxiety is based on the assumption that China's human resources are in a continuous succession, that is, there will be a steady stream of young people to replace these 35-year-olds. But this is not the case in China. China's society is aging faster than any other country in the world. People often think of Japan as the oldest country in the world, which is true, but China is currently experiencing a faster transition to an aging population than Japan has experienced. I also talk about this in my new book.

Therefore, I think the age of anxiety you mentioned is debatable. Maybe in 5, 6, or 10 years, this number will become 45. In fact, there are not so many young workers, not so many employees under 35 competing. Of course, in a relatively flat company structure, there is limited room for advancement for employees over 35. This is the advantage of traditional companies. It is a hierarchical structure, and there is always room for advancement.

Tencent Research InstituteMany young people in China today have begun to feel anxious about retirement, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, when they are facing the risk of unemployment. How do you view this anxiety? And what can technology do for us?

Lynda GrattonFirst, we have to consider that you have to stay healthy until you die.If you want to liveIf you are 100 years old but get sick at 80, you will spend the remaining 20 years of your life in pain.This is really bad.So what we need to do is make sure we live in good health for as long as possible.To do this, we need to exercise regularly and eat healthily.

The second point is that most people want to die in their own home, not in a nursing home.The World Economic Forum has a center dedicated to ageing and care, and the statistics there clearly show that people don't want to go into nursing homes, they want to spend the last days of their lives at home, but the reason people often can't do this is because the cost of doing so is too high.This is where technology comes into play.What AI and robotics really do is allow patients to stay at home and be cared for.This is a very broad field.Japan is clearly the fastest to move toward this goal because it has an aging population.The same is true in China.As a result, there will be huge innovation in the use of artificial intelligence and robotics.Robotics can help patients with limited mobility move, and artificial intelligence can be used to monitor the movements of the elderly in real time to prevent dangerous situations.

The third point is that the number of caregivers will increase greatly in the future, because machines can only complete part of the care work, and the other part still needs to be completed by manpower.So this is one of the areas where we are seeing very significant growth in employment.one.