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Wang Shuaiguo, a reporter from Economic ObserverIn the first half of 2024, most joint venture automakers had poor sales. The Economic Observer counted the wholesale sales data of 12 joint venture automakers in the first half of the year, of which 8 declined, accounting for two-thirds, and many of them declined significantly; among the 4 automakers with sales growth, only Yueda Kia, which had a small base, had a significant increase in sales in the first half of the year, while the sales growth of the other 3 was relatively small.

Due to the backwardness in the development of new energy and intelligent technology, the market share of domestic joint venture automakers has been continuously squeezed by independent automakers. According to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first half of this year, the sales volume of Chinese brand passenger cars was 7.419 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%; the market share was 61.9%, an increase of 8.8 percentage points year-on-year, and an increase of 23.5 percentage points compared with 38.4% in 2020. The market share of joint ventures and foreign brands has further narrowed to 38.1%.

Some people in the industry believe that 2017 was the starting point for joint venture automakers to decline in the Chinese market, and the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market in 2021 further accelerated this trend. Wang Xianbin, director of Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, told the Economic Observer: "In the medium and long term, this trend (of joint venture automakers' declining market share) is difficult to improve, mainly because all levels of the market now have popular models and corporate layouts from independent automakers."

Although joint venture automakers have accelerated their transformation to electrification and intelligence in recent years, they have not been able to break through. What is the way out for joint venture automakers? All automakers are still trying to find it.

The Slide Continues

first half of this year,Beijing Hyundai, Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile (which hasDongfeng PeugeotandDongfeng CitroenTwo French joint venture brands),a ToyotaThe cumulative sales of new vehicles were 100,000, 37,700 and 329,100 respectively, down 18.90%, 14.77% and 11.82% year-on-year respectively.

The industry believes that the lagging pace of electrification is the main reason for the continued decline in sales of joint venture automakers, which is particularly evident in Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile.

According to the China Passenger Car Association, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China's passenger cars has reached 41.8% in the first half of this year, which means that 4 out of every 10 cars sold by all automakers are new energy vehicles. However, as of now, Beijing Hyundai and Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile have not yet launched new energy models.

At the 2024 Beijing Auto Show in April, other automakers were releasing new energy vehicles. Beijing Hyundai exhibited two new cars, the fifth generationShengda,brand newTucsonAt that time, Beijing Hyundai Deputy General Manager Qi Xiaohui said in an interview with the Economic Observer and other media that this year is the preparation period for Beijing Hyundai's electrification, and Beijing Hyundai will launch new pure electric and hybrid models in 2025.

Putting aside independent brands, even among joint ventures, Beijing Hyundai's electrification progress has lagged behind most other automakers. According to official plans, Hyundai Motor will launch the pure electric series "IONIQ" in the Chinese market. In the development of localized pure electric models, Hyundai Motor will cooperate with Chinese electrification companies.

Compared to Beijing Hyundai, which is still struggling, Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen seems to have given up resistance. In April this year, a Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen insider told the Economic Observer that Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen would no longer launch new models in the Chinese market in the future. Prior to this, Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen had not yet launched new energy models in the Chinese market.

In the new energy business, Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Co., Ltd. has essentially become a foundry for its own brands. In October 2023, Dongfeng Motor Corporation stated that it would use Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Co., Ltd.'s system advantages to help it actively integrate into Dongfeng's new energy business and push Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Co., Ltd. to press the "accelerator" for new energy transformation. After that, Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Co., Ltd. began to undertake the production of new energy models of other brands under Dongfeng Motor Corporation.

November 2023,Dongfeng Passenger VehicleThe signing ceremony of the first vehicle model strategic cooperation framework agreement was held with Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile. In March this year, Hubei Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile's new energy vehicle new model and "three-electric" parts industrial park project was officially signed. The project will upgrade Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile's vehicle production base located in Chengdu Economic Development Zone, transform and develop new energy vehicles, and introduce three new energy models independently developed by Dongfeng Motor in the first phase, and use existing land to build a new energy "three-electric" parts industrial park.

On July 15, Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Co., Ltd. announced that it would recommend Song Hanming, the company's party secretary, to concurrently serve as general manager, and Chen Bin would no longer serve as general manager. In the context of not launching new models in the Chinese market in the future, Song Hanming's main task may be to help Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen Automobile Co., Ltd. expand into the global market.

FAW Toyota, whose sales in the first half of the year fell significantly year-on-year, has launched two new energy vehicle models, bZ4x and bZ3, in the Chinese market. The bZ4x was launched in October 2022, but its sales have been poor. In April 2023, FAW Toyota launched the bZ3. In the first half of this year, bZ3 sold a total of 25,100 units, with an average monthly sales of about 4,200 units, which is a decent performance.

However, FAW Toyota's main force is the hybrid market. In April this year, FAW Toyota launched the IT'STiME2.0 intelligent electric hybrid dual-engine technology brand, which consists of three intelligent electric hybrid dual-engine technologies, ToyotaPilot advanced intelligent driving and ToyotaSpace intelligent space. It will be the core competitiveness of FAW Toyota brand for the future and will be installed on all models. In terms of new energy, FAW Toyota did not make any new moves in the first half of the year.

In addition to the above three companies, joint venture automakers with declining sales in the first half of the year include SAIC-GM,Guangqi Honda、GAC Toyota、FAW-VolkswagenandDongfeng NissanIn the first half of the year, they sold 225,600, 207,900, 336,000, 754,500 and 330,500 new vehicles respectively, down 49.98%, 28.25%, 25.80%, 11.10% and 1.41% year-on-year respectively.

Is the overseas market a lifeline?

Unlike Beijing Hyundai, FAW Toyota and other automakers which are still in a downward channel, Yueda Kia andChangan FordIt has entered the bottoming out and rebounding stage.

Sales data released by Yueda Kia showed that Yueda Kia's sales in June 2024 reached 20,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%. After 3 and a half years, Yueda Kia's monthly sales exceeded 20,000 units again; the cumulative sales in the first half of 2024 were 109,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 73.1%, of which 71,400 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 172.9%, accounting for 65.2% of the total sales.

Yueda Kia said that in the first half of this year, Yueda Kia accelerated the construction of global export bases and gradually consolidated the new development pattern of "domestic and foreign sales go hand in hand".Sonnet、Cytus、K5、Huan Chi、Lion BottomThe export product matrix of various models, including the SUV, is exported to more than 50 countries including the Middle East, Asia Pacific, Central and South America. In the future, Yueda Kia will continue to expand the export scale of complete vehicles and engines, and increase the number of complete vehicle export countries to more than 80.

Changan Ford and Yueda Kia have similar development strategies. In April 2023, Ford Motor decided to produce the revised version at Changan Ford's Hangzhou plant.Lincoln Navigatorand exported them to the United States. Later, Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley proposed that Ford would use Ford China as an export center to export lower-priced electric vehicles and commercial vehicles to markets such as South America, Australia and Mexico. That year, Ford China exported more than 100,000 vehicles in total.

In the first half of this year, Changan Ford sold a total of 111,600 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 13.36%. Although Changan Ford has not yet announced the proportion of exports, based on Ford China's export performance in 2023 and previous official statements, Changan Ford's export sales in the first half of the year should be quite large.

The other two joint venture automakers whose new car sales increased slightly in the first half of the year were SAIC Volkswagen and Dongfeng Honda, which sold 512,100 and 237,900 new cars respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.75% and 4.79% respectively. Of these two automakers, Dongfeng Honda also began exporting new cars to overseas markets last year.

Seeking overseas incremental markets has become one of the strategies for most joint venture automakers to increase sales. Regarding how joint venture automakers should develop in China in the future, Wang Xianbin proposed: "First, they can acquire or invest in domestic automakers' technology or fully integrate automakers, and then develop new vehicle platforms; second, learn fromTeslaThe development model is to adopt a 100% wholly-owned company model in China. "

Yi Yang, a senior analyst in the automotive industry, proposed changing the equity ratio of joint ventures. He believes that now is a good time for Chinese shareholders to increase their equity ratio in joint ventures. "I think this is the best way to save joint ventures," Yi Yang said.