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Low-altitude economy, the next trillion-dollar new blue ocean? |OpenTalk Review

2024-07-18

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Editor: Huang Yarong, Wang Xirun (Intern), Dong Yuxin (Intern)

On July 10, 2024, 36Kr, together with China Science and Technology Innovation Star and Yiwei Capital, held"Low-altitude economy, the next trillion-dollar new blue ocean?"OpenTalk live sharing event, special guestZhang Shuguang, professor at the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, founder and chairman of Beifei Zhihang, Hu Zhendong, chairman and CEO of Baijing Airlines, and Ren Xuefeng, chairman of Zowee IntelligentThere were 3 guests in total, who discussed multiple factors including eVTOL technology innovation, low-altitude industry supply chain, emergency applications of drones, unmanned aerial cargo transportation, etc., and interacted with the audience in a live Q&A session.

What are the views of the three guests on the low-altitude economy, which is the focus of policy and market attention? Which links in the low-altitude industry chain will dominate the so-called "trillion-dollar market"? In the field of low-altitude economy, what first-hand industry insights and practical experience of technology and products will they share? The following is a summary of the key points of this live broadcast, welcome to read, share and collect:

Zhang Shuguang, professor at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, founder and chairman of Beifei Zhihang: Develop eVTOL based on domestic supporting facilities

Zhang Shuguang:Professor and doctoral supervisor at the Beihang University; founder and chairman of Beihang Zhihang; responsible professor for the establishment of the "Aircraft Airworthiness Technology" major at Beihang University, and member of the Teaching Guidance Committee for Transportation Majors of the Ministry of Education; August-Wilhelm Scheer Visiting Professor at the Technical University of Munich, Germany, concurrently serves as a member of the Flight Mechanics Professional Committee of the Chinese Society of Aeronautics, and deputy director and secretary-general of the Electric Aircraft Branch of the Chinese Society of Aeronautics; member of the expert group for the formulation of UAV airworthiness management policies and technical standards, and was the main person in drafting the supplementary requirements and consultation notice for electric aircraft in the "Normal Aircraft Airworthiness Regulations" of the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

Share keywords: #eVTOL technology innovation #supply chain

Zhang Shuguang, professor at Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, founder and chairman of Beifei ZhihangFirst of all, she pointed out that as a national strategic emerging industry, the low-altitude economy is in a period of rapid development opportunities, although it faces high barriers and strict supervision. She mentioned that since its establishment in 2022, Beifei Zhihang has witnessed the rapid development of the industry and emphasized the government's active support for the development of the industry at the policy level.

Market potential analysis:Professor Zhang cited Morgan Stanley's market forecast and proposed the trillion-dollar market potential of the low-altitude economy. According to data from the State Council Information Office, the scale of China's low-altitude economy exceeded 500 billion in 2023 and is expected to exceed 2 trillion in 2030. Through specific data, she demonstrated the vast market potential of the low-altitude economy and the market prospects of manned eVTOL.

Technical path selection:In terms of technological development, Professor Zhang shared the technical path chosen by Beifei Zhihang, including the consideration of four types of technical routes, and Beifei Zhihang finally chose the third type - the tilt-rotation layout technical solution. This choice reflects the company's pursuit of performance advantages, but also means the need to overcome technical barriers, especially the design of the tilt-rotation mechanism and transitional flight control. Compared with the combined propeller layout, the tilt-rotation layout has obvious potential advantages in overall performance. In the specific implementation of the tilt-rotation layout, Beifei Zhihang adopted a design in which the propeller and the active part of the wing are linked (tilt-rotation wing layout). This layout not only saves propellers (shared by cruise and take-off and landing propellers), but also has higher take-off and landing efficiency without the wing blocking the propeller flow during take-off and landing.


Cost and Commercialization:She used the route from Shanghai to Zhoushan, Zhejiang in the Yangtze River Delta as an example to demonstrate the potential of eVTOL in improving travel efficiency. Compared with traditional highways, eVTOL is expected to shorten the journey time to 40 minutes, significantly improving the efficiency of cross-sea transportation. In terms of cost, Professor Zhang pointed out that although the cost of adopting new technologies in the early stages may be high, as the technology matures and is applied on a large scale, the cost will gradually decrease. This cost-benefit analysis by Beifei Zhihang provides a strong argument for the commercialization of eVTOL.

Supply Chain and Partners:Professor Zhang introduced the supply chain strategy of Beifei Zhihang in detail, emphasizing the cooperation with domestic suppliers. The company divides suppliers into six categories, including key components such as motors, batteries, and propellers, and emphasizes the criticality of avionics and flight control systems. As a start-up, Beifei Zhihang chooses to work closely with suppliers in the technical verification and airworthiness certification stages to jointly promote technological development and maximize commercial value in the future.

Safety standards and future prospects:In terms of safety, Professor Zhang cited the European Aviation Safety Agency's standards, proposed safety level requirements for eVTOLs operating densely over cities, and emphasized the importance of gradual and phased development. She proposed that high performance, high safety and low cost are the keys to the future development of eVTOLs.

Professor Zhang’s sharing provided a comprehensive perspective on low-altitude economy and eVTOL technology, showing the overall picture of industry development from market potential to technological development, to safety standards and coordinated development of the industrial chain.


Hu Zhendong, Chairman and CEO of White Whale Line:Provide customers with efficient and low-cost unmanned aerial cargo solutions

Hu Zhendong:He holds a PhD in Aircraft Design from the Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics and holds the title of Researcher. He was formerly the Director of the Science and Technology Department and the System Engineering Department, the Director of the Strength Department, and the Chief Strength Engineer of the COMAC North Research Center. He was formerly the Director of the COMAC C939 Project and Engineering Management Office (PEMO), the person in charge of the preliminary demonstration of the fuselage scheme of the CR929, and the person in charge of many national civil aircraft research projects. Prior to this, he also served as a technical expert at the Airbus Beijing Engineering Technology Center and holds 14 invention patents related to aircraft development.

Share keywords: #Unmanned aerial cargo #Low-altitude economy #New quality productivity

Hu Zhendong, Chairman of White Whale LineHe introduced the company's innovative ideas and development history in the field of air cargo in detail. He first showed the company's large unmanned cargo aircraft W5000, which is being developed, with its 5,000 kg load capacity and 2,600 km range as its main features.

Market demand and design considerations:Hu Zhendong explained the logic behind the aircraft design, including the consideration of domestic general airport resources and the solution to the bottleneck of air cargo. He pointed out that the abundance of domestic general airport resources has provided new opportunities for air cargo, and the W5000 is designed to adapt to these short runway airports and feature pure cargo transportation to optimize cost-effectiveness.

Project highlights and progress:He outlined the four highlights of the W5000 project: compliance with the low-altitude economic trend, non-modification new forward development, the team's rich experience in certification, and the formal acceptance and approval by the Civil Aviation Administration. Hu Zhendong also mentioned that the company has been established for three years, has completed all design work, and has entered the final assembly and manufacturing stage in Changzhou, Jiangsu. It is expected that the first aircraft will be assembled and rolled off the production line in October 2024.

Policy environment and market forecast:In his speech, Hu Zhendong emphasized the positive impact of the latest regulations of the National Air Traffic Control Committee on the low-altitude economy, and predicted that by 2040, the low-altitude economy will reach a market size of one trillion US dollars, of which logistics and people transport will each account for half. In addition, he also analyzed in detail the prospects of the air express market and cargo drones. China's express delivery volume is huge. Last year, the total express delivery volume in the country reached 132.07 billion pieces, with a total revenue of about 1.5 trillion. If these express deliveries are converted into air transportation volume, even a 5% conversion rate will generate huge demand for air transportation. Traditional express delivery has poor timeliness. To solve this problem, Hu Zhendong shared the development direction around new quality productivity, including meeting the national strategy of the "123" express cargo circle, that is, domestic goods arrive within one day, goods from neighboring countries arrive within two days, and global goods arrive within three days. In addition, reducing air logistics costs and improving transportation efficiency are also important development directions. In terms of special uses, especially in the field of military-civilian integration, and logistics support for the Belt and Road Initiative, long-range cargo drones have shown their unique value.

Design analysis of the unmanned cargo aircraft W5000:Hu Zhendong shared that the aircraft is designed with a five-ton load and a range of 2,600 kilometers, which is based on six key needs sorted out after a deep understanding of express delivery customers: First, the ability to take off and land at general aviation airports. The W5000 can take off and land at general aviation airports that operate 24 hours a day, solving the main bottleneck of air cargo, namely airport resource limitations. Second, economy and load. The design of a five-ton load takes cost-effectiveness into consideration and avoids the high cost problem caused by too small a load. Third, large cargo hold capacity to meet the transportation needs of light and bulky goods. Fourth, fast loading and compatibility, with the ability to complete a go-around within 15 minutes, compatible with existing air cargo boxes and pallets, to achieve fast loading and containerization. Fifth, long-range design, a range of more than 800 kilometers ensures timeliness. Sixth, the cost per ton-kilometer is controlled below four yuan, responding to customers' strict requirements for cost-effectiveness.


Advantageous operation scenarios of large unmanned cargo aircraft:Hu Zhendong stressed the importance of point-to-point direct flights between cities to improve logistics efficiency. Hu Zhendong stressed that the biggest advantage of the direct flight model is high efficiency and low cost, reducing the intermediate transfer links, reducing cargo loss and package loss rate. For example, W5000 can realize direct flights between Baotou and Foshan, handling 3 to 5 tons of cargo every day, with only 4 hours of flight plus 2 hours of delivery at both ends, to achieve fast delivery within 8 hours, increasing the efficiency by 6 times.

Finally, Hu Zhendong emphasized the domestic autonomy and controllability of the aircraft, including the power system, which uses all domestic components to avoid the uncertainty of the international market. He also shared the company's future development vision. In addition to aircraft manufacturing, the company will also provide comprehensive operational support services, including repairs, maintenance, maintenance and spare parts, etc., strengthening the service attributes of drone products. By deeply understanding customer needs and optimizing operating costs, White Whale Airlines is actively providing efficient and low-cost solutions for the future air cargo market.



Ren Xuefeng, Chairman of Zowee Intelligent: Zowee Intelligent - Pioneer in scientific and technological innovation in the field of low-altitude emergency response

Ren Xuefeng:Chairman of Beijing Zowee Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., a pioneer in the field of tethered UAVs in China, an expert in the technical group of the patent transformation and application special action, a director of the third council of the Chinese Command and Control Society, and a graduate enterprise tutor of the School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering of Beihang University. He founded the company in 2015 and has 20 years of experience in flight control and flight simulation. He led the team to develop the first ducted tethered UAV product in China, and obtained the first domestic tethered UAV product to pass the certification of the military third-party testing agency, the first military trade tethered UAV model, and the first military tethered UAV model.

Share keywords: #Low-altitude economy#Pioneer in emergency application of drones

Ren Xuefeng, Chairman of Beijing Zowee Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd.The sharing detailed the company's business layout and technological innovation in the field of low-altitude economy. Zowee Intelligent was founded in 2015. The core team has a background in Beihang University and more than ten years of industry experience. In the long-term development, Zowee Intelligent has built a "one body and two wings" development strategy, focusing on the construction of intelligent unmanned equipment systems and industry-university-research-application ecology, and continuously exploring more drone scenario needs.

Business and Innovation Tags:Ren Xuefeng emphasized that Zowee Intelligent has three distinctive labels in the field of drones: the developer of the first domestic tethered drone military model, the pioneer of tethered drone high-altitude fire-fighting systems (the system has been awarded a major special project by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), and the builder of a benchmark for production, learning, research and application in the low-altitude economic field.

Tethered UAV technology and applications:Ren Xuefeng focused on the tethered drone technology, which is connected to the ground by ropes and can hover in the air for a long time. This technological breakthrough enables drones to obtain continuous power and communication support, significantly improving the operating time and the ability to perform complex tasks. After ten years of development, Zowee's intelligent tethered drones can reach a maximum flight altitude of 500 meters, a load capacity of 100 kilograms, and a flight time of more than 24 hours. They are widely used in military and special fields. In actual military applications, tethered drones have solved the problems of short battery life and insufficient wind resistance, and demonstrated excellent flight performance in complex environments. The company's core technologies include high-precision positioning, high wind resistance stability, precise flight control and abnormal protection measures, as well as navigation capabilities under satellite navigation and electromagnetic compatibility conditions.

Drone high-rise firefighting and natural disaster emergency response:Zowee Intelligent proposed a tethered drone high-altitude firefighting solution, which integrates a large-load tethered drone platform, a drone-specific efficient firefighting device, and a dedicated firefighting transport vehicle. When the comprehensive firefighting support vehicle arrives at the fire scene, the TS-X12 tethered drone can be quickly launched within 5 minutes. Then the ground personnel can monitor the fire situation in real time through the drone's high-definition camera and thermal imaging temperature measurement, and use its mounted optoelectronic pod, fire hose and special spray device to achieve high-altitude continuous and precise firefighting, effectively filling the gap in emergency firefighting and rescue at altitudes above 100 meters. The solution has the advantages of long-term uninterrupted operation, highly integrated rapid deployment, military-grade safety and reliability, precise strikes, and efficient firefighting, and has been verified in many actual combat exercises. At the same time, the company has also developed drone solutions for natural disaster emergency response, including forest firefighting, night lighting support, emergency communications, and material delivery. In terms of post-disaster communication support, drones have demonstrated the ability to deploy quickly and operate efficiently.


Phase One Lab - "Industry-University-Research-Application" Ecological Closed Loop:Ren Xuefeng also shared the Feisi Laboratory of Zowee Intelligent. At present, Feisi Laboratory has cooperated with more than 300 universities and research institutes across the country to provide them with development tools for intelligent unmanned systems, and provides an integrated design and development platform for flight control, visual navigation, cluster collaboration, and intelligent game technology for the research and development, design, simulation, and testing of intelligent unmanned systems.

Finally, Ren Xuefeng pointed out that Zowee Intelligent will invest more technology and resources in the military field in the future, and gradually apply the core technologies formed in military products to civilian and industrial fields. At the same time, it will continue to expand the layout of Feisi Laboratory in the UAV scientific research ecology and education ecology, promote the deep integration of production, education, research and application, and play an efficient synergistic role in all links of the industrial chain.

In the live broadcast room, the three guests also gave wonderful one-on-one answers to the questions from the online audience, and carried out continuous technical exchanges and business discussions with the audience on related topics in the event community. The above is the essence of this OpenTalk. For more details, you can scan the QR code below to watch the video review.

On July 24, 36氪OpenTalk will continue to hold a low-altitude economic expert sharing event. Detailed guest information and event arrangements will be released first in the 36氪OpenTalk exchange group. Please stay tuned. If you have professional exchanges and cooperation needs, you are welcome to initiate discussions in the event group at any time.


OpenTalk

"OpenTalk" is an online live exchange activity under the 36Kr Innovators Club. Focusing on cutting-edge topics in the fields of technology and venture capital that community members are concerned about, community talkers are regularly organized to share and exchange ideas, and practical content is regularly shared and fed to community members, and finally returned to the community. Here, different viewpoints will confront each other head-on, their respective explorations can collide directly, and their practices will lead to more cooperation.