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Baidu has become the hottest company recently.

Various news about Carrot Run frequently appeared on hot searches, whether it was foreigners experiencing Carrot Run that set off foreign networks, or Carrot Run's amazing performance in Wuhan, or He Xiaopeng and Zhou Hongyi's comments on Carrot Run, all of which pushed the popularity of Carrot Run to the highest level.

The reason why "LuoBo KuaiPao" has become a hot topic on social networks and attracted market attention recently is that the number of orders for LuoBo travel has increased significantly. Public data shows that the peak of LuoBo KuaiPao's single-vehicle orders per day exceeds 20, which is the same level as the daily orders of taxi drivers. Some netizens said that Baidu will soon replace Didi Chuxing.

The background of these events is that during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, Baidu Zhixing obtained the Shanghai Unmanned Intelligent Connected Vehicle Demonstration Application License, becoming one of the first companies to obtain this qualification. Influenced by Baidu's Carrot Express self-driving taxi, Xiaoma Yixing, Sai Ke Intelligent, T3 Travel, Ruqi Travel and other companies have also been widely concerned by the market. Robotaxi (self-driving taxi) has become a hot track, and the commercialization path has triggered heated discussions across the Internet.

With the continuous favorable conditions in the industry, relevant departments have actively promoted the improvement of laws, regulations and systems related to intelligent connected vehicles and autonomous driving, which has accelerated the commercial application of Robotaxi. As of July 13, 20 cities (consortiums) have become pilot cities for the application of "vehicle-road-cloud integration" of intelligent connected vehicles approved by the Ministry of Transport. Shanghai, as the first city in China to implement the autonomous driving test policy, has opened multiple demonstration areas.

As a result, Baidu's stock price surged. On July 9, Baidu's US stock price surged 8.47%, and on July 10, Baidu's Hong Kong stock price surged more than 10%, and continued to rise in the following trading days. In July, as of the close of July 15, Baidu's US stock price rose by 15%, and its Hong Kong stock price rose by 12%. The corresponding total market value during the same period was US$34.74 billion and HK$263.6 billion.

It first became popular in Wuhan

Luobokuaipao is an autonomous driving travel service platform under Baidu. It has opened manned test operation services in 11 cities across the country, achieving full coverage of super first-tier cities. The driverless online ride-hailing car in Wuhan that has attracted attention recently is Luobokuaipao. It is understood that Luobokuaipao's goal is to deploy 1,000 driverless online ride-hailing cars in Wuhan, but only 400 have been deployed so far. However, these 400 driverless online ride-hailing cars have made Wuhan the world's first driverless city.

By the end of 2023, Wuhan ranked eighth in the country in terms of the number of taxis, with a total of 16,747 taxis.Based on this data, the 400 driverless online taxis invested by Luobo Kuaipao account for 1% of the operating vehicles in Wuhan and 2.4% of the total number of taxis in Wuhan.The proportion is not too high, and the operating area is only within the designated area, but these 400 driverless online-hailing taxis are an earthquake for the Wuhan taxi market and even the national taxi market.

According to media reports, Wuhan's taxi industry may be impacted by Luobo Kuaipao. Luobo Kuaipao's biggest advantage is its price. Previously, it was reported online that Luobo Kuaipao's price was about 4 yuan for 6 kilometers and 5 yuan for 7 kilometers, with an average of less than 1 yuan per kilometer. Some passengers even joked that it was more cost-effective than driving to and from get off work, and even more cost-effective than a taxi that starts at 10 yuan per 3 kilometers.

Zhang Zhiyong, an automotive journalist, believes that in addition to the price advantage, self-driving taxis also have many advantages that the taxi industry does not have."First of all, driverless cars are a new thing, and many consumers are eager to try them. In addition to the price advantage, the safety of driverless online ride-hailing cars has been tested for nearly 30 million kilometers. Compared with taxis, driverless online ride-hailing cars are safe and private, clean and tidy, do not require detours, do not need to look at the driver's face, do not pick and choose, and do not refuse to take passengers, which makes them more easily accepted by young consumers."

It is difficult to make a profit at this stage

The autonomous taxi business of LuoBoKuaiPao continues to attract attention, but some institutions say it is still a long way from profitability. Haitong International has carefully analyzed LuoBoKuaiPao from the cost and revenue perspectives.On the revenue side, the high subsidies and relatively low single mileage affected its total daily revenue. Due to policy requirements, driverless online ride-hailing vehicles are subject to regional operating restrictions and cannot operate across regions, resulting in a lower order duration than taxis. The revenue cannot cover the costs of the vehicle, safety personnel, and road support.

Without taking into account the R&D costs and platform operation costs, the current vehicle cost of Luobo Kuaipao is about 480,000 yuan. Based on the standard of mandatory scrapping of operating vehicles after 8 years, even if it runs 365 days a year, the daily depreciation cost is about 160 yuan.According to the current "Guidelines for Autonomous Driving Vehicle Transportation Safety Services (Trial)", Robotaxi must be equipped with remote safety officers at a ratio of at least 1:3. Adding the safety officer's labor costs, electricity costs, car washing and other operating expenses, the daily cost of Robotaxi is more than 370 yuan. At present, the daily income of each vehicle is about 150 yuan, which is still a long way from the cost expenditure, and it is not realistic to make a profit in the short term.

However, with the advancement of technology and operational optimization as well as the update of regulations, the ratio of safety officers will continue to decline, road-side ground support and empty driving rate will also be optimized, and the subsidy intensity will inevitably gradually decrease in the future. In particular, the cost of the sixth-generation model RT6 of Luobo Kuaipao has dropped to 204,600 yuan, and with mass production, the price is expected to continue to drop. This has become the key to Luobo Kuaipao's profitability.

Investor Liu Bo said that the reason why capital is so optimistic about the driverless online car-hailing track is that there is enough data reference. "At present, the subsidies for driverless online car-hailing platforms are too large. After deducting various operating costs, they are still not profitable. However, they have relevant data for evaluation. With the surge in the number of operating orders, the cost of the whole vehicle has dropped sharply, and subsidies have been reduced. It is only a matter of time before they can make a profit." As for how to balance the issue of about 3 million taxi drivers and millions of online car-hailing drivers across the country, Liu Bo believes that it is still necessary to coordinate the balance of interests between taxi drivers and taxi drivers."Objectively speaking, if the issues concerning vulnerable groups are not properly addressed, it will have a huge impact on major issues such as social employment. Only by coexisting and co-prospering can capital become more warm.. But the development of technology is an inevitable trend. Just like when Didi first appeared a few years ago, it was said to have subverted the taxi industry, and taxi drivers were also completely opposed. In the end, more taxi drivers unexpectedly joined the army of online ride-hailing. Technology changes the development of the entire society. "

Full commercialization may come earlier

If Robotaxi was the only dominant player, it would be difficult for the industry to achieve commercialization. However, with the entry of more than a dozen leading industry players such as T3 Travel and policy support, the industry foundation has been consolidated for the layout and application of artificial intelligence technology, and support has been provided for the commercialization of Robotaxi. The success of Robotaxi in Wuhan has set an example for other players in the industry.

The reason why Robotaxi has not been fully implemented before is mainly due to its high cost.Cui Dayong, CEO of T3 Travel, once publicly stated that when the cost of Robotaxi vehicles exceeds 1 million yuan, there is no commercial application scenario. However, at present, some companies have launched vehicle models within 300,000 yuan. Once these models are launched in batches, they can be used on a large scale, and commercialization is gradually becoming possible.

At present, driverless technology is at the L3 and L4 intelligent driving stage. According to industry insiders, L3 and L4 intelligent driving technology can only be very close to real human drivers, but there are obvious advantages and disadvantages compared with real human drivers. For example, when a car crosses a zebra crossing, a real human driver will judge whether to give way and slow down according to the actual situation, but the driverless car will slow down according to traffic regulations regardless of whether there is anyone at the zebra crossing. This may have a certain impact on traffic during peak traffic. Yu Qiankun, CTO of Saiko Intelligent, believes that there is still a gap of 2 to 3 years between the current autonomous driving technology and human driving. The solution is to import the data of human driving habits into the intelligent driving system to make the autonomous driving "more like a human".

Luobo Kuaipao has become a pioneer among many driverless online taxi-hailing services, and the surge in orders in Wuhan has also injected confidence into the industry. As of April 19 this year, Luobo Kuaipao's autonomous driving travel service orders have exceeded 6 million. At present, the user with the most orders of Luobo Kuaipao has made more than 2,000 orders, and the order with the longest mileage exceeds 95 kilometers. Moreover, data shows that the average number of orders received by a single car of Wuhan Luobo Kuaipao is 20 orders per day, which is basically the same as that of ordinary taxis. After the pilot in Wuhan, consumers are generally satisfied with the travel service of taking a fully driverless car. The user satisfaction rating of Luobo Kuaipao APP reached 4.9 points, of which 94.19% of the full marks were 5 points.

As Luobo Kuaipao became popular in Wuhan, fund managers began to conduct intensive research. Many fund managers said that the increase in the penetration rate of intelligent driving will drive the explosive growth of the after-sales service market and are optimistic about investment opportunities in the related industrial chain. In the online car-hailing scenario, the implementation of the driverless business model has been accepted by the market, and the capital market has taken the lead in expressing its position. Baidu's recent soaring stock price is the best proof. At the same time, many institutions have also released research reports, expressing optimism. In its research report, Everbright Securities believes that Luobo Kuaipao has achieved refined cost control and may be expected to achieve regional profitability by the end of the year.

It is understood that the sixth generation of LuoBoKuaiPao's driverless car has reached the L4 level of fully driverless driving. In terms of whether it can be commercialized, the cost of the whole vehicle has dropped significantly, 60% lower than the previous generation. The cost of a single vehicle does not exceed 200,000 yuan. Although the number of orders in Wuhan has increased sharply, the platform's subsidies are too large. From the taxi bills posted by netizens, we can see that the subsidy was as high as 80% to 90%.

According to the order of netizen "xhh要断舍离呀呀呀", the netizen took a taxi for 28 kilometers, with a total cost of 136.04 yuan, a discount of 109.52 yuan, and the passenger paid 26.52 yuan. The amount he actually paid accounted for less than 20% of the total cost, less than 1 yuan per kilometer on average. Another netizen "五行缺金方达然" posted an order showing that he took a taxi for 7.01 kilometers, with a total cost of 48.34 yuan. The actual price paid after the subsidy was 5.07 yuan, about one-tenth of the total cost, also less than 1 yuan per kilometer.

However, preferential subsidies cannot continue at such a high rate, just like Didi and Uber, which initially provided large subsidies, and then gradually reduced platform subsidies. Everbright Securities believes that with the increase in the proportion of fully unmanned driving, the improvement of spatial and temporal coverage and operational efficiency, and the reduction of platform subsidies, Luobo Kuaipao is expected to achieve profitability first in Wuhan and enter the full profitability period in 2025. Once Luobo Kuaipao achieves profitability, it will greatly promote the development of the industry.

Another autonomous driving giant, Tesla, is also about to enter the market and will release Robotaxi on August 8. Tesla's entry will further catalyze the development of the industry. Autonomous driving is expected to become the main line of the market in the next three months, and commercialization may come ahead of schedule.

"As an emerging industry, the development of Robotaxi requires the coordinated development of multiple parties such as government regulatory agencies, smart driving companies, travel service platforms and vehicle manufacturers. Only with the coordination of multiple parties can a complete industrial chain be formed in terms of technology, cost, ecology and policy, so that Robotaxi can fully enter the commercialization era." Liu Bo is optimistic about the commercialization of driverless online ride-hailing vehicles.

Did Didi tremble?

The one who is most worried about the popularity of Carrot Run is actually Didi.

Didi was founded in 2012. By 2017, its average daily orders exceeded 25 million, making it the largest taxi company in China. Even its online car-hailing drivers outnumber taxi drivers. Public data shows that the ratio of online car-hailing drivers to taxi drivers in Wuhan is about 1.7:1, and the dynamic balance of online car-hailing drivers is higher than that of taxi drivers. Didi's success is simple, that is, it uses Internet thinking to reduce the dimensionality of traditional industries. However, Didi, which once reduced the dimensionality of the traditional taxi industry, encountered a dimensionality reduction attack in the field of AI.

The biggest criticism of Didi now is that it charges too much commission from drivers and has gradually become a traditional industry.However, unmanned online ride-hailing services in the emerging AI field, such as Luobo Kuaipao, have perfectly avoided the "pitfall" of drivers' commissions because they do not have drivers. Today, Luobo Kuaipao has become the Didi of several years ago, and Didi has become the traditional taxi industry that was revolutionized several years ago. The story is still going on, but the difference is that Didi's role has changed, from the revolutionary party to the party being revolutionized in an instant.

Although the size of the travel market is growing rapidly, the size of the online car-hailing market will be 358.9 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 24.08%, but the total volume is limited after all. The entry of Luobo Kuaipao will inevitably replace another online car-hailing platform. It is too early to say that Luobo Kuaipao can kill Didi, but Didi will definitely be the first to be affected.

Back then, Didi suppressed the number of taxi drivers to a level lower than that of online car-hailing drivers. Now, under the dimensionality reduction attack of Luobo Kuaipao, what will be the end of itself? No one can give an answer, but Didi's lack of humanistic care, excessive commissions on drivers, and blind pursuit of performance growth may have really given Luobo Kuaipao the opportunity to subvert the industry.

Baidu has invested hundreds of billions of yuan in smart driving since 2014, and now has finally ushered in the commercialization of smart driving. Although LuoBoKuaiPao encountered some problems in the early stage of operation, netizens have tolerated it. After all, the development of new things is always moving forward by trial and error. How to coexist with taxi companies and online car-hailing companies may be an issue that Baidu needs to think about urgently.

Author|Meng Xiao