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Whether it is the CSI 300ETF or the SSE 50ETF, the current price has exceeded the highest point on July 4, but the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index have not yet exceeded the highest point on July 4, and the stock index futures still maintain a discount pattern with the longer the term, the lower the price. In fact, there is a technical factor in all these, that is, the relevant index does not adjust the ex-dividend of listed companies, but directly reflects it in the decline of the index. Therefore, from the perspective of the market, it shows that the ETF fund has risen, the fund investors have made money, but the index trend is weak.

If the index was 3,000 points last year and is still 3,000 points this year, did investors make money or lose money? If it is the Shanghai Composite Index, then investors may make no money or no loss, but if it is the CSI 300 Index or the SSE 50 Index, then investors who buy ETF funds can make money. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed at 3431.11 points on December 29, 2023, and closed at 3476.25 points on July 15, 2024, with an interval increase of 1.316%. However, during the same period, the price of the CSI 300 ETF fund rose from 3.43 yuan (before re-adjustment) to 3.526 yuan, an increase of 2.8%, which is 1.484% more than the index.

Is this because the fund manager has made proper operations and obtained higher returns? Actually, not really. By summarizing the performance of stock indexes and ETF funds over the years, investors can find that ETF funds are stronger than the index, and this has become more obvious in the past two years. The fundamental reason lies in the index compilation rules. When the constituent stocks of the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index pay cash dividends, the index will not be revised for this reason, but will directly reflect the ex-dividend caused by the cash dividend through the decline of the index. Only when the stock price is due to bonus shares or capital reserve conversion to increase capital, will the index be revised to make corresponding compensation.

For example, if a company's stock price was 5 yuan at the beginning of the year, the dividend was 0.5 yuan in the middle of the year, and the stock price rose back to 5 yuan at the end of the year, from the perspective of fund investors, a 10% investment return was obtained, but from the perspective of the index, there was no change at all.

It is also for this reason that the quotation system of stock index futures has also been affected. Investors often give lower valuations to long-term stock index futures because they have to consider the dividends of listed companies during the period of existence of stock index futures. The more cash dividends a listed company pays, the greater the discount impact of stock index futures will be. This was not obvious in the past when listed companies paid fewer dividends, but now that cash dividends have increased, the impact on index changes is also getting bigger and bigger.

In addition, a more interesting phenomenon has also arisen. The Shanghai Composite Index has gradually evolved into the strongest index. This is not to say that the constituent stocks of other indices have performed poorly, but because the Shanghai Composite Index will adjust the ex-dividend factors of listed companies, while the poorly performing indices often do not make adjustments for this.

Therefore, if investors want to study the changes in the valuation levels of listed companies, they should also take into account the factors of index compilation. Sometimes studying the trend of the CSI 300 Index Fund may be more accurate than studying the trend of the CSI 300 Index.

Of course, investors can also study the quality performance of high-quality companies through the changes in the CSI 300 Index. For example, listed companies pay cash dividends steadily and continuously every year. Investors can study the judgment of long-term funds on the intrinsic value of companies through the changes in the CSI 300 Index. That is, if the price of the CSI 300 Index rises overall, it means that long-term funds recognize the future "blood-making" ability of listed companies, rather than just affirming past performance.

Beijing Business Daily commentator Zhou Kejing