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Baidu's Robotaxi (driverless taxi) has been on the hot search list many times recently, sparking a Robotaxi craze. There has been endless discussion about driverless cars ushering in their "iPhone moment".

Almost at the same time, a piece of news about Robotaxi, although not attracting the attention of ordinary consumers, caused quite a stir in the industry. On July 11, Tesla was revealed to plan to postpone the release of Robotaxi from the original August to October. As soon as the news came out, Tesla's stock price plummeted by 8.44% that day, and its total market value evaporated by more than 500 billion yuan overnight.

The industry generally believes that the second half of the automotive industry will be intelligent with autonomous driving as the core, and Robotaxi is one of the most important application scenarios of autonomous driving. The delay in the release of Robotaxi alone can greatly shake the stock price of the world's largest automaker by market value, which shows how important it is.

However, Robotaxi is not new, so why is it so popular online at this point in time? How is the implementation of the autonomous driving industry? Who among the many participants will benefit from it?

Robotaxi industry sees the dawn of commercialization

In fact, from the perspective of capital and industry, Robotaxi is "re-emerging".

As early as 2018, Waymo, Google's self-driving company, launched the paid driverless taxi service Waymoone, and has since taken the lead in the world in commercializing autonomous driving technology.

At that time, whether it was startups, Internet companies, or major car companies and investment institutions, they were all actively deploying autonomous driving. However, the biggest obstacle to the development of the industry, commercialization, ultimately blocked Robotaxi's neck.

After several years of financing boom, Robotaxi entered a capital winter in 2022, with financing shrinking rapidly and listed companies' stock prices plummeting. On the one hand, this is because autonomous driving technology is indeed not yet mature, and on the other hand, the business model is not working.

The significant progress made by Luobo Kuaipao in its operations in Wuhan has given the outside world a glimpse of the dawn of commercialization.

Industrial Securities Research Report pointed out that recently, the operation data of Turnip Run in Wuhan has surged, with a peak of more than 20 orders per day. At the same time, citizens are generally satisfied with the travel service of fully driverless cars. According to Baidu data, as of May 15, Turnip Run's service area in Wuhan has exceeded 3,000 square kilometers, covering a population of 7.7 million. It is expected to achieve full coverage of Wuhan in 2024, and plans to deploy 1,000 new-generation mass-produced driverless cars to achieve all-weather, fully unmanned operation in Wuhan.

It is generally expected in the industry that a fleet of 1,000 driverless vehicles in a single city will be the break-even point for Robotaxi operations.

There are many players in the Robotaxi track. With the support of policies, in addition to Luobo Kuaipao, companies including Pony.ai, Scio Intelligent, Ruqi Travel, Didi Chuxing, etc. have made considerable progress. Zhang Ning, vice president of Pony.ai and head of Robotaxi autonomous driving travel business, revealed in an interview with The Paper that Pony.ai is expected to operate thousands of driverless taxis in a single city around 2025 or 2026.

Zhang Ning said that if Robotaxi is to be commercialized on a large scale, it will only be possible to break even if 500 to 1,000 vehicles are deployed in a single city. "Behind the operation of Robotaxi, companies have invested a lot, such as dispatching, ground maintenance systems, etc. We have calculated that in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the operation will reach the break-even point when the number of vehicles deployed is 1,000. Beyond this point, our cost will be lower for each additional vehicle, and the gross profit margin will be higher, entering a stage of positive self-sustaining blood-making."

Several industry insiders told The Paper that Robotaxi is expected to be commercialized on a large scale within five years. McKinsey predicts that by 2030, the amount of orders for autonomous driving-based travel services will reach about $260 billion, and by 2040 it will reach about $940 billion.

Commercial vehicle autonomous driving is progressing faster

Robotaxi is just one of the application scenarios of autonomous driving technology in travel. Compared with the widespread commercial operation of Robotaxi on open roads in cities, the industry generally believes that the promotion of commercial landing scenarios of commercial vehicles such as logistics vehicles and trucks will be easier to "turn dreams into reality."

An industry insider pointed out in an interview with The Paper that the factors that truly enable complex autonomous driving technology to be implemented on a large scale can be divided into three categories: technology, policy, and application.

Industry insiders stressed that in terms of application, China's advantages in commercializing autonomous driving are very obvious, and the huge market space provides a wide range of application scenarios for all types of autonomous driving. Especially in closed sections and industrial scenarios with relatively simple road conditions, unmanned driving is becoming more mature, which also solves the practical problem of truck driver shortage.

Logistics and distribution is an important application scenario of autonomous driving in the commercial field. Through deep integration with cutting-edge technologies such as big data, the Internet of Things, and big models, it is greatly improving the overall operational efficiency and service quality of the logistics industry.

A relevant person in charge of Haomo Zhixing, a subsidiary of Great Wall, told the reporter of The Paper that the company follows the development path of "from low speed to high speed, from cargo to people, and from commercial to civilian use". In the exploration of the terminal low-speed unmanned vehicle scene, the terminal logistics automatic delivery vehicle Xiaomotuo has started commercial exploration in 9 major scenes, including supermarket fulfillment, express delivery, campus delivery, airport patrol, catering retail, and smart communities. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Xiaomotuo has achieved positive profits in the supermarket fulfillment and delivery scene. As of June this year, the cumulative order volume of Xiaomotuo in the supermarket fulfillment and delivery scene exceeded 350,000; the express delivery scene also achieved rapid growth, with a cumulative order volume of more than 260,000.

In the field of truck autonomous driving, Youdao Zhitu, which has been deeply engaged in the field for many years, has just been selected as China's first unmanned truck pilot.

At present, Youdao Zhitu has fully realized unmanned operation in a large number of closed road scenes such as parks, ports, and steel mills, and only three managers are needed to manage a fleet of dozens of vehicles. It is reported that the company's autonomous driving project can currently generate more than 10 million yuan in revenue per month.

Wang Rui, general manager of Youdao Zhitu, also believes that the progress of autonomous driving for commercial vehicles will be faster than that for passenger vehicles. He explained that commercial vehicles are not as sensitive to costs as passenger vehicles. For example, a commercial vehicle in an L4 autonomous driving scenario may increase the cost of the vehicle by about 200,000 yuan, but it can replace three shifts of manual drivers, saving about 500,000 yuan in labor costs a year, so it is easier to achieve a commercial closed loop and easier to scale up.

Who will benefit from autonomous driving? Will driverless cars become mainstream?

Fan Yuejia, co-founder and CEO of Hello Uriding, said in a public speech recently that the future of autonomous driving is a win-win situation, and traditional car manufacturers, autonomous driving technology suppliers and Internet technology giants in the autonomous driving industry chain will all be winners in the end.

In the field of autonomous driving, which will determine the future, car companies are of course indispensable.

"Talking about Robotaxi, just like talking about autonomous driving, we cannot avoid Tesla. It can be said that Tesla's FSD (full autonomous driving) has allowed the industry to see that the technological turning point of Robotaxi and autonomous driving has arrived." Yu Qiankun, CTO of SAIC Motor's Robotaxi company Saike Intelligent, said bluntly in an interview with a reporter from The Paper.

Like Tesla, almost all car companies are involved in the race for autonomous driving. Different participants in the autonomous driving industry have their own advantages, which has also formed a variety of development models for autonomous driving. In general, the current autonomous driving market structure presents the characteristics of "one super and many strong".

The "super" is Tesla. The "strong" includes new car-making forces such as "NIO, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto", as well as "Huawei-affiliated" car companies such as Changan, Seres, Chery, and JAC; in addition, leading autonomous driving solution providers such as Baidu Apollo, Horizon, DJI, and Momenta, as well as traditional automotive electronics Tier 1 suppliers represented by Bosch are all indispensable players in the autonomous driving industry chain.

"Autonomous driving technology is a subversion of the original technology route of the automotive industry, but this transformation may not bring about fundamental changes, but the weights between the various roles may be adjusted to a certain extent." An industry insider said that when autonomous driving technology is mature enough, if this service is provided by the car manufacturers themselves, it will form a self-closed service system, similar to Tesla's current model, which can sell more vehicles and obtain higher profits. If the driverless service is provided by a third party, its importance may become increasingly prominent in the future.

Looking at the upstream of the industry chain, CICC's research report divides it into the perception layer, decision-making layer, and execution layer. Among them, in the perception aspect, LiDAR companies such as RoboSense and Hesai Technology are worth paying attention to; in the decision-making layer, chip companies such as Qualcomm, NVIDIA, NXP, and Infineon, as well as high-precision map providers such as Baidu, AutoNavi, and NavInfo determine the brain of autonomous driving; the execution layer is the foundation of autonomous driving, and the technology is mainly in the hands of suppliers such as Bosch and Continental, which is monopolized by giants of traditional first-tier auto parts suppliers, and the domestic foundation is relatively weak.

In fact, the heated discussion caused by the Carrot Run is not a mere accident. As one of the earliest companies to deploy autonomous driving, Baidu has been hailed as the "Huangpu Military Academy of China's autonomous driving". Its founder Robin Li has identified the future of autonomous driving more than ten years ago. In the book "Intelligent Transportation", Robin Li wrote that driverless cars are equipped with a large number of sensors, will not violate traffic regulations, and are safer than human driving; they can effectively improve road traffic efficiency and alleviate congestion; they are greener and lower carbon, and can also provide humans with new work and entertainment space. "Unmanned vehicles will definitely become the mainstream mode of travel in the future."