2024-10-07
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recently, the politburo meeting of the central committee of the communist party of china deployed a package of policies, which have significantly boosted the confidence of chinese and foreign investors in china's economy and capital market. the author believes that relevant policies need to be accurately understood and fully implemented from the perspective of high-quality development.
1. the package of policies deployed by the political bureau meeting played an immediate and significant role in reversing market expectations and boosting investor confidence.
after the epidemic, china's economy faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand, weak expectations, and high economic downward pressure. at the same time, there are also problems such as local government debt, instability in the real estate market, and a serious weakening of the investment and financing functions of the capital market. these problems and challenges are intertwined. as a result, market expectations are weak, investors' risk appetite is reduced, consumers' willingness to consume is reduced, and the economy faces complex environments and challenges. against this background, there is an urgent need for strong macroeconomic policies and reform measures to reverse market expectations. this is the consensus of all sectors of society.
the politburo meeting on september 26 clearly stated that policy announcements such as promoting the stabilization of real estate and boosting the capital market have a very critical and positive role, reversing market expectations. the package of policies has boosted market confidence in the chinese government to solve deep-seated problems, increased market risk appetite, and enhanced consumer confidence. the stock market, property market and consumer behavior have all been reflected recently. of course, the improvement of china's medium- and long-term fundamentals of the economy still requires the follow-up and cooperation of a package of policies and reform measures; promoting high-quality development and structural reform is a long-term process that requires it takes a long time to achieve success.
2. high-quality development not only requires macroeconomic policies to maintain stable economic operation in aggregate terms, but also requires structural policy measures to address major outstanding issues.
the aggregate problem of insufficient effective demand in china's economic operation is intertwined with structural problems such as real estate and capital markets. to solve the aggregate problem, we must also solve structural problems. while implementing aggregate supportive policies, it is objectively necessary to introduce some targeted policies. structural tools of meaning. in terms of the overall monetary policy this time, the central bank comprehensively used a variety of monetary policy tools such as lowering deposit reserves, lowering policy interest rates, and guiding loan market quotation rates downward to create a good monetary and financial environment.
in view of the important role of real estate in the economy, the central bank has always supported the risk resolution and healthy development of the real estate market from a macro-prudential perspective. in recent years, the people's bank of china has continued to improve macro-prudential policies for real estate finance, taking comprehensive measures from both the supply and demand sides. it has repeatedly lowered the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans, lowered loan interest rates, canceled the lower limit of interest rate policies, and established affordable housing refinancing to support acquisitions. a series of policies for existing commercial housing. recently, in order to implement the central government’s decision-making and deployment on promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, a package of policies has been officially implemented to reduce existing mortgage interest rates and down payment ratios. it is expected to reduce residents’ repayment pressure, and when combined with other policies, it will help increase consumption and weaken risks in the real estate market. .
the two structural monetary policy tools created this time to support the healthy development of the capital market are a package of institutional measures to improve the capital market and are designed to implement the institutional construction of a sound capital market function that coordinates investment and financing at the third plenary session of the 20th cpc central committee. . there are international precedents for similar structural monetary policy tools. during the subprime mortgage crisis, the federal reserve established some new structural monetary policy tools based on market changes and crisis response needs, expanding the scope of lenders of last resort from traditional depository institutions to non-depository financial institutions. it established the term securities lending facility (tslf), which allows primary dealers to exchange their less liquid securities for treasury bonds from the federal reserve, thus improving the liquidity conditions of primary dealers.
during the implementation of this "swap facility", there was no base currency injection, there was no "balance sheet expansion", and it was not the so-called "central bank entering the market". from the perspective of operating principles, it is similar to the federal reserve's term securities lending facility (tslf), which enhances the financing and investment capabilities of relevant institutions in the form of "securities for bonds" and achieves liquidity support. the financial management department will impose strict requirements on the qualifications and conditions of relevant institutions and set scientific mortgage rates.
"stock repurchase, holding increase and refinancing" is a tool developed through commercial banks for the market value management of listed companies. it is specially used for listed companies and shareholders to repurchase and increase stock holdings. there are strict restrictions on the lender and the use of funds, and it does not mean that bank funds enter the stock market. internationally, market value management by listed companies and shareholders through bank loans is a common business provided by investment banks to their clients.
both structural monetary policy tools are based on the principle of marketization and are long-term institutional arrangements to improve the market. the two tools do not increase the central bank's base money injection or expand the money supply. the policy tools have specific directions and conditions for use. bank credit funds cannot enter the stock market in violation of regulations, which is still a red line that financial supervision should adhere to. financial management departments should scientifically monitor and evaluate the operation of the capital market and prudently choose the appropriate time window.
3. high-quality development objectively requires all parties to jointly maintain a stable and healthy development of the capital market.
china's economic transformation objectively requires a healthy development of the capital market to provide a good market environment for corporate asset restructuring and mergers and acquisitions. to promote the conversion of old and new driving forces, the allocation of financial resources will be transferred more to the "five major articles" and the development of new productive forces. this requires monetary policy to provide a stable macro environment, and at the same time, capital markets, financial institutions and other fields will promote relevant reforms and jointly create an investment and financing environment that encourages innovation and focuses on efficiency.
currently, financial institutions should attach great importance to investor suitability management and investor protection. on the one hand, investors must be encouraged to strengthen their confidence in the long-term positive development trend of china's economy. the fundamentals of our economy and favorable conditions such as a vast market, strong economic resilience, and great potential have not changed. at the same time, some new situations and problems have emerged in the current economic operation, which must be viewed comprehensively, objectively and calmly. these problems are problems in development, and the solution of these problems requires a process. on the other hand, financial institutions must strengthen internal control and compliance responsibilities, warn individual investors of risks, strictly control and increase leverage, and strictly prevent credit funds from flowing into the stock market in the form of consumer loans. there is an old saying in the market, "the stock market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious." investors should be risk aware, start from their own risk tolerance, and not blindly follow the trend of speculation.(the author is the vice president of the national association of financial market institutional investors)