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the latest strategic views of the top ten securities firms are freshly released, as follows:

citic securities: expect a major reversal and a major turning point for the market

there are major changes in policy signals, and market expectations are greatly reversed. in the future, domestic demand policies will continue to increase or push price signals to arrive earlier, and the market will usher in a major turning point; after the expected major reversal, it will be characterized by the concentrated entry of incremental funds, mainly retail investors. , the pulse-like rise will continue in the short term; it is currently in the transition stage from an expected major reversal to a major inflection point in the market, with low p/b and domestic demand recovery as the core. after the price signal is confirmed and the market reaches a major inflection point, the market will start to the resumption of the credit cycle has become the core feature of the annual bull market, and institutional investors will have better entry opportunities.

from the perspective of allocation ideas, there are two main lines in the market transition stage. one is low p/b style revaluation. industries where low p/b companies are concentrated, such as real estate, banking, non-bank finance, and construction and building materials industries, are the most clear. one of the main lines. the second is the restoration of the valuation of the domestic demand sector. it is recommended to focus on the consumer internet with both offensive and defensive capabilities, essential sectors such as dairy products and mass catering with low valuations and high returns and expected to be the first to stabilize operations, as well as alcohol, human resources, and other sectors driven by economic recovery expectations. hotels and other procyclical directions.

huaan securities: the positive trend is expected to continue the preferred direction of elasticity and stagflation to compensate for growth

domestic fundamentals have not changed much, but there are some positive signs after the real estate industry has set its tone. the risk of recession in the united states has weakened. at the same time, the surge in hong kong stocks has kept market risk appetite high, and the positive trend of a-shares has continued.

in terms of allocation ideas, we focus on the direction of elastic varieties and varieties that have economic support or potential policies to catalyze stagflation and compensate for growth, which mainly include three main lines: 1) varieties that represent market sentiment, mainly including securities companies, military industry, and computers. 2) growth sectors with improved macro and micro liquidity, frequent catalysts, and third-quarter results expected to exceed expectations, including electronics, electronics, communications, and military industries. 3) other consumption that is supported by the boom or policies and is expected to benefit from the spread and make up for the stagflation, including home appliances, automobiles, medicine, agriculture and animal husbandry.

west china securities: the layout of "brokerages" and "ultra-low-price stocks" is the optimal strategy at the current stage

after the "924" state council information office press conference and the "926" politburo meeting launched major policies, investor confidence was significantly boosted, and chinese assets launched a massive counterattack. so far, the hong kong stock market has outperformed major global indexes, and the valuations of major a-share indexes have also been significantly repaired. west china securities defines the current surge in chinese assets as a “new quality bull” driven by policies. currently in the first stage of "new quality bull", arranging "brokerage firms" and "ultra-low-price stocks" is the best strategy at this stage.

in terms of style configuration, high-quality consumption and growth are expected to go hand in hand. pay attention to the topics of large consumption (food and beverage, automobiles, home appliances, medicine), high-quality growth (smart driving, artificial intelligence), and restructuring and mergers and acquisitions that benefit from policy efforts.

guotai junan: the stock index is expected to continue to rise

guotai junan believes that optimistic expectations will continue to push up the stock market, and the shanghai composite is expected to break through the 2021-2022 operating area. the rhythm first increased and then fluctuated, and the decision came at the end of the year. heavyweight stocks are rapidly filling the valuation depression, and excess returns are optimistic about growth. in addition, the decline in risk-free interest rates is the key driving force of this market. in this market, we must pay attention to the impact of new etf tools on stock indexes and structures.

in terms of industry configuration, it is recommended that the main battleground be placed on sectors that benefit from the decline in risk-free interest rates and the boost in risk appetite: 1) continued expansion of transactions + expectations of mergers and acquisitions, recommendation: non-banks; 2) boost in risk appetite, pay attention to valuations flexibility: computer/media/defense industry; 3) growth stocks with stable 2025e expectations and more valuation adjustments, recommended: electronics/automobiles/communications/power equipment (battery)/medicine, and growth-oriented consumption.

cinda securities: the bull market has begun. pay attention to the rhythm.

cinda securities believes that in the short term, as hong kong stocks rose significantly during the holidays, they may continue to rise after the holiday. judging from the current popularity of a-shares, it is already relatively close to the high level since 2000. as of september 30, 2024, the overall turnover rate of a shares is as high as 3.38%, second only to the highs in the first half of 2015 and 2006-2007. the largest increase in the 10-day index since 2000 was second only to july 2015. it is expected that the fluctuation range will be relatively large after the holiday.

recommended allocation order: new energy (oversold) > consumption (oversold) > media internet & consumer electronics (value stocks among growth stocks) > financial real estate (the most beneficial from policies) > going overseas (good long-term logic + good short-term data) > upstream cycle (good production capacity pattern + sufficient compensation for the decline caused by demand concerns).

zhongtai securities: the popularity of chinese assets may continue after the national day

policy expectations were strengthened last week, and market enthusiasm rose rapidly. during the holidays, hong kong stocks and us stocks performed better overall. zhongtai securities expects that the popularity of chinese assets may continue after the holiday. it is expected that this round of policy changes may produce monthly to quarterly market prices. follow-up there is still a lot of room for growth. it believes that this change in policy focus is essentially different from the past "four trillion", and the intensity of fiscal stimulus may be smaller than market expectations. in the long term, the technology sector represented by "new productivity" may still be the main focus in the second half of the year.

in terms of investment, since the core of this politburo meeting is "emphasis on the economy", the cycle and consumption closely related to economic growth will be the main style; since the requirement for real estate is to "strictly control the increase in the construction of commercial housing", it is relatively for the upstream of the real estate chain such as ferrous metals, real estate stocks and downstream consumption may be the most important main lines; this meeting focuses on mergers and acquisitions, making the mergers and acquisitions of central enterprises the most important "theme direction" after the subsequent "index establishment" ; the strength of this round of fiscal policy may be smaller than market expectations. apart from the structural opportunities of the procyclical sector, the technology sector may still be one of the main lines of this round of rebound.

boc securities: strive to go long and adhere to the "procyclical + high beta" industry configuration

bank of china securities believes that the rapid rebound of a shares since the end of september comes from the valuation restoration brought about by the unexpected change in policy tone. in terms of follow-up space, whether it is analogous to q1 of 2019 (the bottom of market risk appetite is quickly restored and the economy is expected to stabilize) or q2 of 2020- in 2021q1 (the start of a strong replenishment cycle), there is still room for a rebound from the bottom of the current market valuation. from the perspective of duration, the sustainability of this market requires close observation of the sustainability of policy releases and the recovery trend of economic data.

in terms of industry allocation, a-shares currently still have a high allocation cost performance, and the industry allocation of "procyclical + high beta" will be adhered to after the holiday. focus on the steel industry chain, aluminum, cement, etc. in the investment chain that benefit from real estate policy-driven and better supply and demand patterns. among consumer goods, liquor, beer, black electricity, kitchen appliances, etc. are expected to recover first and have multiple logic catalysts. in the technology chain, financial it, xinchuang, semiconductors, consumer electronics, 3c equipment, etc. with "procyclical" attributes and growth flexibility, as well as securities firms with high beta attributes.

industrial securities: firm bull market thinking time and space will not be limited for the time being

industrial securities believes that under the new policy orientation of “seizing key points and taking proactive actions”, the market logic has been reversed. in addition, judging from historical experience, when a bull market starts, it will mostly go through a stage of rapid bottom repair. after that, it gradually enters a window with a relatively gentle upward slope, longer duration, and stronger money-making effect. from a medium-term perspective, everyone must abandon the bear market mentality, strengthen the bullish mentality, and do not set limits on the time and space of the market, because the financial power is still flowing.

structurally, the market is undergoing a beta-style recovery, and we should pay attention to the direction of the rebound from a deep decline. focus on three main lines: the first is "technological bulls", including new productivity represented by semiconductors, communications, new energy vehicles, national defense and military industries, computer ai, medicine and biology, and advanced manufacturing; the second is "domestic demand bulls", be optimistic about the pan-consumer industry leaders in the emerging service industry, traditional consumption and other fields, and pay attention to dividends, shareholding increases, buybacks and cancellations; the third is to "go to sea", and explore the overseas expansion of new energy vehicles, power equipment, home appliances, consumer electronics, furniture, etc. the winner of the industrial chain.

huajin securities: the rapid rise of a-shares has not shown a peak sign

huajin securities believes that the rapid rise of a-shares has not yet reached a peak mark, and the rise after the holiday is likely to continue. there may be shocks, but it is difficult to peak. on the one hand, there are currently no signs of policy tightening or redirection. first, in terms of economic policy, there is a high probability that it will be difficult to change in the short to medium term, and fiscal policy and other policies may instead make further efforts. second, in terms of capital market policies, the short term is likely to be mainly boosting and positive.

in terms of allocation, the logic of short-term supplementary growth continues to prevail, and we can continue to focus on technology growth, core assets and financial real estate after the holiday. it is recommended to continue to pay attention after the holiday: first, the policies and industry trends are upward, and computers (hongmeng), media (film and television, games), electronics (chips), and communications may make up for the increase; second, benefiting from the policy to improve economic recovery expectations, make up for the increase and the core assets (consumption, electronics, pharmaceuticals) that foreign capital has inflowed into; the third are securities firms (including internet finance, etc.) and real estate that have benefited from rising policies and sentiment.

guosen securities: october strategy follows the trend

since september 24, a number of major policies have been implemented, and emotions have driven the short-term rapid rise in the market. in the medium term, improvements in the molecular side will boost earnings, and the third quarter results remain to be seen. judging from the current market valuation and sentiment, guosen securities believes that the a-share valuation recovery process is relatively fast, the absolute valuation is not high, and sentiment is biased toward excitement, but there is still a lot of room to reach the historical top.

in terms of industry configuration, flexible varieties + bottom line valuation + core broad base follow the trend. 1) in terms of flexible varieties, the stock price corrections of hengseng motors and hengseng consumers are moderate, non-banks are screened from the bottom up along the ah relative price/performance ratio, hengseng technology focuses on marginal changes in forward valuations, and a-share performance valuations are highly matched in optical optoelectronics, semiconductors continue to pay attention; 2) the three major indicators of pb, pcf, market value/total assets (including cash) are at relatively low levels, including non-ferrous metals, mechanical equipment, power equipment, beauty care, food and beverages, medicine, computers, public utilities, etc.; 3 ) incremental capital injection has pushed up core broad-based deterministic opportunities. the etf position building process focuses on the a500 component, and the short-term flexibility of mass entrepreneurship and csi 1000 is slightly superior.