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i don’t think it’s true even when i type the title above.

the post-new deal market article i originally told you about was also talking about post-holiday holidays.

but when i see sales people showing off various transaction data on their wechat moments,

when i tried to walk into the sales office but found that there were not enough seats

october 3, shanghai zhangjiang jinmao mansion sales office

when i saw the sand table was buzzing with people again like it was opening

october 4, shanghai times city sales office

my original desire to travel has been brought back. maybe the sales offices scattered in various places in shanghai are also part of the scenery during this national day.

01

luxury properties and improvement projects are quickly removed at 2-3 times the flow rate.

for projects in the core areas of shanghai, i chose poly expo tianyue and qiantan mansion.

the average total price of a unit in the former ranges from 22.90 million yuan to 65.23 million yuan per unit, while the average total price of a unit in qiantan mansion ranges from 9.78 million yuan to 17.14 million yuan per unit.

the customer reception desk of poly expo tianyue is located on the first floor

as you walk through the hall and go down the spiral staircase, you can gradually hear the voices getting louder and louder.

sure enough, every table here was occupied, often middle-aged and young people, talking nervously around the sales.

october 3 poly expo tianyue sales office

i walked through the negotiation area and turned right into the sand table area. during the ten minutes i stood there, i averaged 3 sets of videos without interruption.

october 3 poly expo tianyue sales office

poly sales told me that the number of customer visits started to jump starting from september 30th.

from the original more than a dozen groups of customers every week to more than a dozen groups every day, when i went there on october 3rd, there were more than a dozen groups of customers in almost half a day.

sales also bluntly said that there were 7-8 sales per day on average during this national day. this volume was equivalent to the sales volume in the week before the new deal.

behind the doubling of trading volume is the determination of customers to make decisions

some customers even canceled their vacations and returned to shanghai from yangzhou overnight and went straight to the sales office to place a reservation. before the sales had fully started, they were very sorry and told me that they needed to leave because there were two groups of customers waiting behind me.

then i came to qiantan mansion

the sales office here is not in the project but in an office building. on the first floor there are also promotional materials originally made by the developer to create a national day atmosphere. it is useless to see them on site because customers go straight to the 8th floor for sales. building

turning into the customer reception center, every table was occupied by customers with their families. the fruits and cakes in the public area were replaced very quickly. in the ten minutes i stood there, two batches were cleared.

october 3 qiantan mansion sales office

the first thing to change here is the number of visits. after the new policy was introduced on september 29, the number of customers in the sales office began to increase almost the next day. some of them came from the address they searched for, and some were old customers who visited again.

the number of house viewings here has also drastically changed from nearly a dozen groups a week to more than a dozen groups a day. some customers even temporarily canceled the national day holiday and went to the sales office to stand at the sand table for comparison and consultation.

the listings on the sales control list are also being sold quickly, and the sales rate has reached its peak in the past three months.

poly expo tianyue and qiantan mansion are not point phenomena

vanke zhongxing aoshe, manyun shanghai, lvfa pujiang park, sunac bund no. 1... these high-end real estate projects in core areas have gained a lot during this national day, with the number of visits and transactions increasing in the past three months. peak

02

however, what has changed even more is the rigid demand market outside the outer ring.

to be honest, i didn't expect this. it's not that i didn't expect the transaction volume to rise, but i didn't expect that the hottest property market after the new deal would be this dimension.

after leaving the inner ring and the middle ring, the first place i came to was the middle and outer ring.

the first-choice sector is putuo taopu. in the past two years, taopu’s centralized supply and the fight between various real estate companies have also made the entire sector’s product strength become one of the choices for the middle class to improve.

the new deals here are also in a state of being cleared at the end of the deal. the new deal has also increased this speed several times. it is a bit like the high school history teacher describing the autumn wind sweeping away the fallen leaves on the battlefield.

but what i didn’t expect even more was the performance of the hard-demand market moving further into the outer ring.

i went to two of these new listings

a city of the times in nanxiang, jiading, in the northwest, and another investment destination in sanlin, pudong.

especially in times city, before i even entered the sales office, i saw that the windows were full of customers.

october 4 times city sales office

when i walked in, all the round tables were filled with people. the customer base was relatively young. when there were not enough tables, two groups of customers would sit at one table. the flow of customers next to the sand table and in the model room was a bit like a vegetable market before the chinese new year. so exaggerated

october 4, times city 89-square-meter model room

the salesperson said that he was also a little confused. he was very quiet before the 28th, and then suddenly all the customers came.

the daily removal rate here reaches 15-20 sets，now it takes about 3 days to get the decontamination volume in the first month before the new policy.

the salesman used his own experience to speculate that the demand has always been there, but it was nothing more than a lack of confidence, a lack of qualifications, and a lack of money. now the policies have all been resolved.

is this really the case? with this question, i went to another investment center outside the outer ring.

it was already 3-4 pm by now, and there was a steady flow of customers at the sand table.

october 3 pudong sanlin investment zhenjing sales office

sales told me that sales office visits more than doubled after the new deal

the sales rate has also jumped from an average of 2 sets per day in september to an average of 6-7 sets per day during the national day.

it was getting late, but it didn't stop customers from sitting down to sign contracts. the hesitations in the past seemed to disappear in an instant.

october 3 pudong sanlin investment zhenjing sales office

in fact, there is a deeper market logic behind the buck-trend jump of new stocks outside the outer ring.

first of all, the change of social security from three years to one year means that more young people are eligible to get on the bus.

young people do not necessarily buy outside the outer ring road, but even if they can leverage the total price range with the support of their family, they will most likely lock in a new house in the inner and middle ring, or a new house outside the outer ring road.

in particular, the scope of the policy lockout has not changed and is still second-hand homes in the city and new homes outside the outer ring road.

what you can buy by superimposing these two items is a new house outside the outer ring road.

at this time, new housing projects closer to the outer ring road will become more popular.

at this time, high-quality new homes in these areas have become popular.

and this is also the background behind why projects like times city suddenly exploded in popularity within a few days after the new deal.

03

what surprised me the most was lingang

lingang is a key radiation area of ​​this new policy, and lingang’s purchase restrictions have been further relaxed.

the original purchase restriction policy, which was relatively looser than the city's, is now implemented as

can purchase 1 additional set

but this is lingang. will the policy really be effective? for this reason, i took a two-hour train there.

i was shocked when i got there

the sales here told me that before the new deal came, there were almost 20-30 groups of customers here every day, and the final transaction was 1-3 sets.

on october 3, nearly a hundred groups of customers came to their sales office, and 20-30 units were sold.

october 4th, zhongjian jiuhe sales office

the salesperson told me that in the past, each salesperson dealt with 1-2 groups of customers every day.

on october 3rd, each of them had to deal with at least 10-15 customers, and they didn't get off work until around 12 o'clock every day. the content of the sales presentation that was usually difficult to remember became muscle memory this time.

there were so many customers on site that the floor plan was not enough, so we finally replaced it with this temporary printed version.

october 4th, zhongjian jiuhe sales office

the salesperson here told me that in addition to the 929 policy framework, lingang actually has its own policy.

82 whitelist companies

teachers and scientific research companies working in lingang, etc., these companies can directly lift the purchase restrictions as long as they apply, and they will not occupy the housing purchase quota.

before leaving, my salesperson was helping the next customer fill out the order form, and his eyes were bloodshot when he raised his head.

by the time i left the sales office, it was almost dark, but there were still customers coming in.

this kind of traffic favors almost all new projects in lingang, as well as the not far away shangshi tinghai

the salesperson of shanghai industrial tinghai told me that the normal sales speed is 8 sets per week, which is about 1 set per day, but since the national day, their sales speed has been 4-5 sets per day.

the lady at the front desk said that the number of customers these days has more than doubled than usual, and the closing hours of the sales office have also been extended from six to nine.

the market after the new deal is undergoing drastic changes, and lingang is what i least expected.

04

judging from the current situation of the second-hand market, it is also on the eve of changes.

this time, the seven contents of 929 shanghai are overall more beneficial to the second-hand market.

this has also become the reason why many people pay attention to the second-hand market, but the new policy has just been released and there is no transaction data yet.

but why do i say it’s the eve of change?

first, lianjia’s transfer orders jumped in the week of 9.23-9.29.

the september 29 policy was issued at 9pm, but don’t forget that the politburo meeting was held on september 26. since then, the market has been waiting for the spirit of the politburo meeting to refine plans in various places.

if the politburo meetings can be shown on the transfer order

then you can imagine how the shanghai 929 huqi tiao will have a more drastic impact on the shanghai second-hand market.

in the point case, i have seen the concentrated transactions of luxury homes released by lianjia agency in just a few days.

several sets of very cost-effective properties in yanlord riverside garden that i have been following have been sold out in recent days.

the last thing is the number of people viewing the house

i compared the average daily number of lianjia viewings during the national day in october, and it was more than on normal working days.

it is also more than the average number of new house viewings per day in october in each of the past five years.

at present, it seems that the new policy is very likely to stimulate second-hand trading volume.

05

some characteristics and subtleties of this transaction wave

these new projects are discovered outside the daily customer baseadmission for customers with 1 year of social security

and don’t think that only young people are the only ones. for example, zhangjiang jinmao mansion accepts customers from zhangjiang nearby, so some of the customers here are people who have just completed one year of social security because of job transfers.

at the same time, what i never expected was thatit is also true that some customers choose 15% down payment

and it is not a low threshold that young people choose because of the down payment burden, but they need to move money to the stock market, and the first-time interest rate is now only 3%+

but at the same timewhen i get further and further away from the crowded sand table

i am also thinking about three questions

each round of regulation has its own validity period. on september 1, 2023, the validity period for housing registration but not loan subscription is about 2-4 weeks. the relaxation of general housing restrictions on december 14 is valid for 2-3 weeks. it will be released in january 2024. the single purchase limit outside the outer ring is valid for 4-6 weeks. recently, on may 27, the city’s second-hand single purchase limit was released and the validity period is 12 weeks.

what about this time?

secondly, judging from the seven contents of 929 shanghai this time, the core of regulation is still in the second-hand market.

at present, the second-hand transaction data has not yet been released. what can be determined is only the individual transactions of luxury homes and the increase in the number of new house viewings. there is no city-wide second-hand transaction data.

and this also brings about the biggest unknown in the current market feedback after the new deal.

to put it cruelly, if the second-hand market does not pick up, it will be difficult to say that the market will pick up.

thirdly, this time the policy content itself can be seen that there is still room in the toolbox.

it is difficult to judge whether it is better to completely liberalize like guangzhou at this time, or whether it is better to leave leeway like shanghai.

but it remains to be seen whether this will be a reason for home buyers to wait and see.

that’s all for today. if you’re interested, i’d like to write an article about the second-hand market after the new deal.