yang wan quick review｜multiple arrows fired together to promote the change in sentiment in the property market
2024-10-04
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during the national day holiday, the guangzhou property market regained its long-lost popularity: a number of high-end projects were relatively popular, with an average of one or twenty units reported daily transactions. the sites of more rigid-demand projects are also packed with seats, and the average number of daily visitors is two to three times or more than usual. the scene of queuing up to see model houses, which has not been seen in recent years, reappeared during this national day holiday.
in the bustling property sales scene, we saw not only strong popularity, but also a shift in market sentiment, as well as active market entry behavior driven by this sentiment. there are three main factors that contribute to emotional shifts:
the first is the introduction of strong policies before national day. on september 29, the central bank issued a number of new policies, including lowering existing mortgage interest rates, lowering the minimum down payment ratio for second homes, and other financial policies involving real estate. immediately, guangzhou, shanghai, and shenzhen quickly followed up and made adjustments. among them, guangzhou's policy was even stronger. on the evening of september 29, it announced the complete lifting of the property market purchase restriction policy, which ignited market sentiment.
second, the stock market has surged. the shanghai composite index recently shot up from 2,700 points to 3,300 points in just 5 trading days; on the last trading day before the national day (september 30), the total transaction volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2.59 trillion yuan, which can be described as a "record-breaking" "counterattack" is enough to go down in history. the return of investor confidence in the stock market will be transmitted to the property market.
in addition to the above two points, on the eve of the national day, high-priced land with a total price of tens of billions was sold in tianhe district, guangzhou city. developers linked up with major sales channels to actively promote, and jointly created a warm market atmosphere in terms of supply and promotion methods, which was good for the property market. emotional steering contributes significantly.
there is a saying in the real estate market: confidence is more important than gold. this round of emotional turn has more solid foundation and synergy. in the past two years, there have been frequent favorable policies for the guangzhou property market. although they had a short-term effect of promoting transactions, they failed to reverse the market's wait-and-see mood. when the purchase restrictions were lifted on september 30 and strong support from financial credit and other combinations, the political bureau of the central committee " setting the tone of "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize" has become a key move to turn market sentiment. therefore, this transformation from quantitative change to qualitative change will be more sustainable and more resilient. this is an overall upward force from the top down, from the country to industries, enterprises and individuals.
of course, we must also clearly realize that the emotional turn is only the first step in the real recovery of the property market. as the two major tasks of "destocking" and "structural adjustment" are still faced, the recovery of the property market cannot be achieved overnight. in addition to the policy aspect, it is also essential for developers to carefully study the appropriate pricing of products and build good houses for the market that meet the people's needs for a better life.
the pragmatic and rational guangzhou property market is still worth looking forward to.
text | reporter chen yuxiapicture | reporter liang yu
