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financial news agency, october 4 (editor xiaoxiang)chinese investors are ushering in the national day golden week holiday this week. if we talk about the most important overseas macro data during this long holiday in china, it must be the u.s. non-farm employment data for september that will be released at 20:30 beijing time tonight. genus.

the u.s. non-farm payroll data for september on october 4, the federal reserve minutes on october 9, the u.s. september cpi on october 10, the u.s. september ppi/october university of michigan consumer confidence index, 10 the u.s. retail sales data for september will be released on november 17th, the big seven earnings release period will be intensive from october 21st to 25th, and the u.s. non-farm payroll data for october will be released on november 1st.

according to option pricing, the u.s. stock market is likely to be the most volatile during the above two "non-farm nights"!

this is actually evident from the pricing of the u.s. stock volatility indicator on wednesday.

from a global perspective, although the recent rise in chinese assets has been unstoppable, if more overseas markets can rise simultaneously, it will undoubtedly further fuel optimism in the domestic stock market after the holiday. at the same time, this important us macro data is destined to further affect the performance of the foreign exchange, bond and commodity markets.marc chandler, chief market strategist of bannockburn global foreign exchange co., ltd., pointed out that the most important content in the foreign exchange market this week is the september non-farm employment data to be released by the united states.

andit is worth mentioning that friday’s non-farm payrolls data is likely to be the last “normal” employment report for some time to come.because october’s non-farm payrolls data are likely to be severely distorted by three major events: the damage caused by hurricane helene, the ongoing boeing machinists’ strike, and the recent large-scale strikes at u.s. east coast and gulf coast ports. these periodic emergencies are likely to affect people's judgment of the true situation of the u.s. labor market.

therefore, although there are still two non-farm payrolls releases before the fed's november decision, this week's data may be the only one that can truly provide an accurate reference for the fed.

so tonight, how will this key employment indicator, which is expected to determine the fed's next pace of interest rate cuts, perform? let us take a look together.

forward-looking: what are the market expectations before non-agricultural returns?

according to the schedule, the u.s. department of labor is scheduled to release the september non-farm employment report at 20:30 beijing time tonight. according to the median forecast of economists compiled by industry media, non-farm payroll employment is expected to increase by 140,000 in september, with the unemployment rate unchanged from last month at 4.2%.in august, the u.s. job market added 142,000 jobs, lower than market expectations. this ultimately paved the way for the federal reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in september.

the following is wall street’s latest median forecast for various major non-agricultural indicators and key sub-indicators compared with the previous month:

the u.s. non-farm employment population is expected to increase by 140,000 in september after seasonally adjustment, compared with the previous value of 142,000;

the u.s. unemployment rate is expected to be 4.2% in september, compared with the previous value of 4.2%;

the u.s. employment participation rate is expected to be 62.7% in september, compared with the previous value of 62.7%;

the average hourly employment data in the united states in september will increase by 3.8% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 3.8%;

the average hourly employment data in the united states in september will increase by 0.3% month-on-month, compared with the previous value of 0.4%.

judging from the current situation in the u.s. labor market, the slowdown in hiring in the u.s. healthcare industry may pose a certain threat to the stability of the overall labor market.the industry has been a major driver of job growth so far in 2021. however, the health care industry added just 30,900 jobs in august, the lowest level in more than two years, especially as hospitals and nursing facilities shed jobs. the situation is particularly striking.

ge bai, a professor at johns hopkins university who specializes in health policy, said that the health care industry occupies an important position in the u.s. job market, and its small changes will have an impact on employment across the united states. "historically employment growth in health care may have simply reflected trends during the pandemic, and now we're seeing some degree of pullback."

bank of america economists also wrote in a non-farm outlook report released on tuesday: "we still expect health care, education and government (and to a lesser extent leisure and hospitality) to continue to drive employment growth. but we also note that recent data shows growth in these 'catch-up' industries is slowing as they approach pre-pandemic trends."

of course, judging from some of the forward-looking indicators released before the release of non-agricultural data, it is clear that what people are currently harvesting is not just bad news. at least the small non-farm payrolls adp exceeded expectations, which may help people gain a little more confidence in tonight's non-farm payrolls data.data released by the american automated data processing company on tuesday showed that the number of adp employment in the united states in september was 143,000, which was expected to be 120,000. the previous value was revised up from 99,000 to 103,000.

morgan stanley strategist chris larkin said, "the adp employment data unexpectedly rose, indicating that the labor market is bending but not collapsing. friday's non-farm payrolls report will make the final statement on current employment conditions and recent market sentiment. judge."

a report released by the u.s. department of labor on tuesday also showed that u.s. jolts job vacancies unexpectedly climbed to a three-month high in august, exceeding economists' expectations. this data also shows that although the overall employment growth in the united states has slowed down, it is still basically stable, consistent with the trend reflected in the latest small non-farm adp data.

how will non-agricultural data affect interest rate cut expectations and financial markets?

on monday local time, federal reserve chairman powell said at the national association of business economics annual meeting in nashville that the fed was in no rush to cut interest rates quickly and would instead make decisions based on data.

this is actually equivalent to once again placing the key to determining the pace of the fed's next interest rate cuts on a series of key employment indicators including non-farm payrolls - obviously, the fed is currently paying more attention to inflation data than inflation data. employment indicators.

powell also said that day, "the u.s. labor market is solid, but the situation has indeed 'cooled significantly over the past year.' we believe that we do not need to see further cooling of the labor market to achieve the 2% inflation target."

in this regard, kallum pickering, chief economist at peel hunt, said in an interview, "i'm certainly going to be nervous ahead of friday's jobs report. if the unemployment rate rises, i wouldn't be surprised to see the market revert to expectations for 50 basis points,then there's the question of how the fed might react. "

stephanie roth, chief economist at wolff research, also pointed out that the upcoming non-farm payrolls data will be particularly important for the federal reserve to decide the next step in cutting interest rates. "our basic expectation is that the number of jobs is expected to be slightly better than market expectations," she explained, predicting that the number of new jobs will be at least between 120,000 and 130,000. if the data falls below that threshold, she thinks the fed could cut interest rates by another 50 basis points. likewise, if the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, the fed may choose to cut interest rates more significantly.

however, bannockburn's chandler has a slightly different view on tonight's non-farm payrolls. he said a combined 50 basis points rate cut by the fed at its remaining two monetary policy meetings this year would be the baseline scenario. unless the employment data is shockingly bad, that is, the monthly number of new non-farm jobs falls below 100,000 or the unemployment rate increases, the fed will implement a more substantial interest rate cut.

in terms of market impact, jpmorgan believes the best-case scenario for stocks is for friday's jobs report to be slightly above consensus.

michael feroli, chief u.s. economist at jpmorgan chase, expects 125,000 new nonfarm jobs to be created in september. jpmorgan traders also analyzed several different scenarios for how stocks would react after the jobs report is released at 8:30 a.m. et on friday.

the following are jp morgan’s five-category scenario forecasts for post-non-agricultural market performance:

new non-farm payrolls exceed 200,000: s&p 500 expected to be flat to rise 0.5%

jpmorgan said a red-hot jobs report would signal "the (u.s.) economy's restart from weakness over the summer" and would lead some investors to believe the federal reserve might skip a rate cut at its november meeting. drop, and then drop again in december).

new non-farm payrolls between 160,000 and 200,000: s&p 500 expected to rise 1%-1.5%

traders view nonfarm payrolls in this range as a "goldilocks scenario" because it would indicate higher economic growth without a resurgence of inflation. under this scenario, markets are most likely pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at the fed's next meeting in november.

new non-farm payrolls between 140,000 and 160,000: s&p 500 expected to rise 0.75%-1.25%

if the non-agricultural data falls within this range, it will be in line with the consensus expectations of market participants, and it will also still be within the "goldilocks scenario" set by jpmorgan chase, that is, the economy will continue to grow at a rate that supports corporate profit expectations, but will not reignite inflation. still, job gains in this range were not enough to ease investor concerns about a potential recession.

new non-farm payrolls between 110,000 and 140,000: s&p 500 expected to fall 0.5%-1.5%

if payrolls fell within that range, it would likely reignite concerns about economic growth and fuel market arguments that the fed is behind the curve and reacting too slowly to a budding recession. in this scenario, defensive assets would outperform, while treasury yields would fall.

fewer than 110,000 new non-farm jobs added: s&p 500 expected to fall 1.25%-2%

jpmorgan chase believes that since non-farm payrolls usually turn lower before the economy slows down, this situation may indicate that the recession will begin as early as the fourth quarter of 2024. credit assets will outperform, while traders will unwind bullish cyclical and value trades.