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recently, with the intensive distribution of a package of policy "gift packages", compared with the rapid progress of the stock market, the bond market has staged a "roller coaster" trend, experiencing relatively large ups and downs. in the past week (september 23-29), the yield on government bonds first fell and then rose. last week, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose 12.83bp to 2.17%.

as for the reasons for the current shock in the bond market, the industry generally believes that on the one hand, after the implementation of favorable policies such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratios, the bond market saw a wave of profit-taking; on the other hand, after the policy package was launched, the stock market rose sharply, and the market risk appetite there have been changes, and under the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds, more funds have flowed into the stock market. correspondingly, the long sentiment in bonds was suppressed, and bond prices were also affected.

looking forward to the market outlook, although the bond market still faces short-term policy variables, as well as disturbing factors such as institutional mentality, redemption feedback risks, and bond supply, looking at the long term, economic fundamentals may be an important factor affecting the long-term trend of the bond market. the current fundamental situation does not support a complete reversal of the bond market trend. huatai securities said that after the "combination punch" of financial policies, it is expected that a number of incremental policies are on the way, and more policies may be implemented after the long holiday. the policy mix has alleviated fundamental pressure, but economic momentum, corporate financing needs, supportive monetary policies, institutional allocation pressure, etc. have not yet been reversed. the mid- to long-term trend of the bond market is still difficult to reverse, and there are still opportunities after adjustments. analysis of the research report of hwabao securities believes that considering that the federal reserve will continue to cut interest rates during the year, there is still room for domestic rrr cuts and interest rate cuts, and the downward trend in interest rates and the bond bull trend may not be over yet.

zhang kun, the mixed asset investment director of hui'an fund's multi-strategy group and the manager of hui'an yutong pure bond fund, also admitted that the bond market is still worthy of long-term optimism. first of all, from a fundamental point of view, the real economy has yet to recover. under the current background of vigorously promoting the development of the real economy, monetary policy needs to maintain low interest rates, so there is no need to worry too much about interest rates going sharply bearish. secondly, the unexpected reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates mentioned in this policy will bring about a downward shift in the interest rate center. in the context of global interest rate cuts, this is also in line with the overall economic environment and international environment. third, after the implementation of this policy, short- and medium-term credit bonds are expected to benefit more. "because generally speaking, whether it is an interest rate cut or a rrr cut, the market has already reacted in advance at the interest rate bond level. as for short- and medium-term credit bonds, due to the suppression of funds in the past, after the introduction of favorable policies, there will be better results in the long run. good performance". finally, zhang kun believes that for interest rate bond products, volatility amplification is also an opportunity. subsequent fluctuations in risk appetite will bring corresponding trading opportunities. amidst the wide fluctuations in the market, it is expected to be a more favorable environment for trading-focused products.

the hui'an yutong pure bond fund managed by zhang kun currently focuses on interest rate bond investment, and holds mostly bond varieties with good liquidity. it mainly adopts the "allocation + trading" strategy, using short-duration interest rate bonds as the bottom position, grasping the turning point of risk preferences and fundamentals, participating in the downward swing of yields through the duration strategy, and striving to seize swing trading opportunities on the basis of controlling drawdowns. , to increase portfolio returns.

risk warning: the views in this article do not constitute investment advice or commitments, and the past performance of the fund does not indicate its future performance. the market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.