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the country's successive policy moves have caused china's assets to explode.

the capital market took the lead in going berserk. in the four days from september 24 to 27, the value of a-shares surged from 75 trillion to 85 trillion, generating an average income of 47,000 for each investor.

on september 30, the shanghai composite index soared 8%, a-shares traded 2.6 trillion yuan in a single day, 713 stocks reached their daily limit, and 4,917 stocks soared by more than 7%.

carnival investors have defeated the stock trading system of the shanghai stock exchange several times.

after the stock market, a wave of more important property market policies were implemented intensively before national day!

the most lenient policy in history, owners collectively jump in price

on the evening of september 29, shanghai launched the most relaxed new house purchase policy in history.

the core breaking news, in short: outside the outer ring road, you can buy one year's social security; out-of-town families can buy two homes; the down payment for the first home is 15%, and the second home is 25%; the value-added tax will be changed from 5 to 2 years, and there will be no value-added tax for two years. .......

almost at the same time as shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen also launched an even more crazy new property market policy.

generally speaking, shenzhen's non-core areas have completely canceled purchase restrictions; the down payment ratio for the first home is 15%, and the second home is 20%; the value-added tax has been changed from 5 to 2 years... guangzhou is more thorough, completely canceling purchase restrictions, and there are no restrictions on home purchases. number of sets!

among the four first-tier cities, beijing made its final appearance on the evening of september 30.

even more radical than shanghai, the down payment ratio for the first home in beijing is 15%, and for the second home, it is directly reduced to 20%; non-local registered households purchase commercial housing within the fifth ring road and only need three years of social security...

the new property market policies in shanghai and beijing mean the final loosening of china’s real estate market.

under the policy, housing prices have already risen!

multiple data support that housing prices have begun to jump!

data shows that a homeowner in dongguan increased his house price by 600,000 yuan overnight! in the xinyuan building on haitian road in huli district, xiamen, the listing price of a house skyrocketed by 2.5 million.

previously, hangzhou's binyun jinxiu lane in canal new city, gongshu district, attracted nearly 2,000 people to draw numbers on the opening day, and all were sold out.

just now, the owner of a second-hand house in beijing that was supposed to be sold at a discount suddenly announced that the price would jump by 1 million. there are many similar situations.

on september 27, the hottest day for a-shares, shui on group also made a wave of hot searches: it is located in the sixth phase of shanghai cuihu tiandi project, and 108 luxury homes were sold for 11.979 billion yuan in one day.

the average price of a house is 110 million yuan, once again setting a new record for the sales of top luxury homes in china. with the pursuit of more than 200 billionaires, the transaction price of the most expensive mansion reached an unprecedented 356 million.

green lake mansion is not representative, but it is a landmark event.

ifthe increase in house prices at the transaction level only reflects some kind of demand signal from the consumer side, while the price increases by real estate developers and the skyrocketing land auctions reflect that the price mechanism has been completely transmitted to the production and supply side.

starting from september 26, many urban projects under poly development have announced "price guarantee plans". for example, the wenzhou poly tianjun project announced that "if similar houses are sold online at a later discount that is lower than the buyer's existing discount, there may be additional free properties." any form of disguised discounts such as fees, parking spaces, home decoration packages, etc. can be used to check out without any reason.

not only wenzhou poly, but also guangdong poly, sichuan poly, xi'an poly, jinan poly and other projects are also continuing to insure prices. for example, sichuan poly’s more than 20 projects on sale are “price guaranteed until next year.”

after the guaranteed price comes the price increase. recently, some developers in zhuhai have officially announced price increases, with prices rising across the board by 2%. a giant real estate company in chengdu also took the lead in announcing a price increase, with all residential projects on sale increasing by 2%.

on september 28, henan local real estate company henan zhuokai real estate co., ltd. issued a document stating that starting from 24:00 on september 30, the prices of the properties for sale in its evergreen jinshuichenyuan project would be increased by 2%.

since october 1st, many developers in beijing have raised housing prices in disguise on the grounds of canceling discounts.

jingneng xixianfu in the west fourth ring road of beijing said that it would restore the original discount plan and take back the excess discounts; china construction yipin issued a poster stating that from october 8, its huaxiang no. 1, yihe public relations, yujing star city, and yujing star city ·yuanqi and daxing starlight city offer discounts of 2%; beijing changping new town wutongshanyu offers discounts of 2% on all products, etc.

from the price guarantees and price increases of real estate companies, the transaction prices of land auctions have skyrocketed.

recently, a land parcel in chengdu went through 114 rounds of land auctions before it was considered successful, with a premium as high as 86.92%. previously, also affected by this confidence, the premium rate of a local auction in shenzhen also rose to 35%.

from demand to supply, the entire real estate link has been completely activated! real estate companies finally woke up the capital market, and the long-awaited surge began.

20 centimeters is no longer news. companies such as sunshine shares, hefei urban construction and financial street have been trading at their daily limit for many consecutive days.

the four major banks cut interest rates, saving 10,000 yuan on a loan of 1.6 million yuan in one year

from the stock market to the property market, china's assets have surged for the first time in a long time, first of all due to policy logic.

on september 26, large-scale economic stimulus policies were thrown out in one fell swoop.

the overall tone is extremely positive, with fiscal and monetary policies emphasizing greater intensity. specific to real estate, the emphasis is on promoting the stabilization of the decline; on the capital market, the emphasis is on continuous improvement; on consumer investment, the emphasis is on attracting investment to help private enterprises tide over difficulties; on people's livelihood, the emphasis is on ensuring employment...

all of a sudden, various policies came like a flood, greatly exceeding the 10 trillion stimulus plan previously called for by the industry.

among them, capital policy and real estate policy are the most fierce and radical.

unlike the decisive response of the capital market, real estate as a real industry has been slower to respond, and is widely regarded as the key winner and barometer of the success or failure of this round of stimulus plans.

why do i say this? there are several reasons. firstly, the real estate industry has been in decline for a long time and it is difficult to recover. secondly, real estate involves more physical industry chains, making recovery more difficult and slower. thirdly, the confidence of the real estate industry does not respond as quickly as the capital market. .....

butthis round of real estate policies is still quite powerful, quite comprehensive, and quite down-to-earth.

the strength is reflected in the fact that the meeting directly called for "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize". this is the first time that the statement has appeared, demonstrating the determination of the highest level to maintain the stability of the real estate market.

it is comprehensively reflected in the fact that property market policies involve all aspects such as the supply side and the demand side.

for example, for the supply side, "the construction of commercial housing must strictly control the increment, optimize the stock, improve the quality, increase the intensity of loans, and support the revitalization of the stock of idle land." it is necessary to not only improve the quality of the stock and improve residents' quality of life, but also strictly control the increase to avoid overheating and disorderly expansion of the real estate market again.

grounded gas now, "we must respond to the concerns of the masses, adjust housing purchase restriction policies, and reduce existing mortgage interest rates." especially in terms of lowering deposit and loan interest rates, it is a reversal of the ambiguous statements in the past and requires a clear response and a timetable.

on the evening of september 29, the four major state-owned banks, icbc, china construction bank, agricultural bank of china and bank of china, officially announced that they will issue specific operating rules starting from october 12, and batch adjustments will be completed by october 31, 2024. the four major banks all stated that they would subsequently announce relevant information on the bank's official website, wechat official account, branches and other channels.

previously, brokerage china, based on the 2024 semi-annual reports of listed banks, found that as of the end of june this year, the total balance of personal housing loans of the six major state-owned banks was approximately 26.19 trillion yuan. specifically, china construction bank has the highest personal housing loan balance, reaching 6.38 trillion yuan, icbc 6.17 trillion yuan, agricultural bank of china 5.07 trillion yuan, bank of china 4.75 trillion yuan, postal savings bank 2.36 trillion yuan, and bank of communications 1.46 trillion yuan.

some people in the industry have begun to predict that if the interest rate of the existing mortgage of 1 million yuan, 25 years, and equal principal and interest repayments is taken as an example, the borrower can save nearly 6,000 yuan in interest expenses every year. .

this move will also further stabilize home buyers’ expectations, boost market confidence, and promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.

924 property market policy is unprecedentedly powerful

regarding this unprecedented housing market stimulus plan, the market's response is not whether it is effective, but how effective it can be and how long it will last.

to try to answer this question, we must first clarify the recent dramatic changes in property market policies.

in addition to the 924 new deal, the 517 new deal also needs to be reviewed.

in fact, the 517 new deal is already very powerful. the minimum down payment ratio for the first and second homes was reduced to 15% and 25% respectively; the lower limit on commercial loan interest rates was cancelled; the provident fund loan interest rate was lowered, etc. the central bank is even preparing to set up a 300 billion yuan re-loan for affordable housing...

but the effect is unsatisfactory. especially in august data, real estate investment, sales, prices, etc. continued to fall, and many indicators were even at the lowest level for the whole year.

in a word, market confidence is extremely low and difficult to mobilize.

why is the company like this? an important reason is that real estate has been integrated into every aspect of economic life.

users are losing money when investing in the stock market, existing loans are paying high interest rates that far exceed the market, wages are not rising, and the risk of unemployment is increasing. no matter how much the down payment ratio is reduced, what's the point? furthermore, the prices of the two major assets in the stock market and property market are too low, which also hinders the return of users' funds, which makes consumption more difficult, and ultimately leads to the collapse of the entire economy.

this is only on the consumer side, and real estate companies on the supply side are on the verge of life and death. in the past three years, real estate sales and financing have dropped by 50%, and investment and prices have dropped by 40%...

what to do? considering that existing house purchases have locked in users’ income for the next 10 years or even longer.to solve this problem, the first step should not be to encourage people to continue buying houses, but to fill the people's pockets first.

the stock market is the best and fastest way to revitalize existing assets. after all, only when you have more money can you pay off debts, spend money, and buy a house.

secondly,lowering existing mortgage interest rates is also a way to help users "make money", users have less debt and can naturally consume and even invest in real estate.

finally, we must provide assistance to real estate companies and actively reduce loan costs so that they can survive.

of course, considering the huge impact of real estate, to boost confidence in real estate, we must boost confidence in the entire economy. in other words,in the past, single policies that were biased towards stimulating home purchases were ineffective. only comprehensive economic stimulus policies (to trigger a comprehensive economic recovery) were effective.

regarding these points, this paper's real estate policy has done much better than 517.

the stock market is in the short term, the property market is in the long term.

even so, the industry still has many concerns about this round of real estate trends. the reason is that short-term users may not be so enthusiastic about investing.

in other words,even if the user's wallet is slightly bulging. there is a high probability that they will fight in the stock market first, not the property market.

of course, as the economy is numbered and users have sufficient funds on hand, some of the funds will return to the property market. but how many there are is hard to say.

in other words,the real and comprehensive revival of the property market may not occur until the economy truly recovers and stabilizes.

in other words, the revival of the property market is a long-term project. in the more than ten years before 2019, the reason why the property market will endure forever is closely related to the entire macroeconomic environment.

revitalizing the property market is a long-term project that can bring both positive and negative results. of course, this is not to deny this round of stimulation. on the contrary, this round of stimulation is too important and timely. because the hope of the entire economy, on which the property market depends for its development, has been rekindled!

based on the expectations of the property market, we respond with a long-term positive outlook.but how quickly it recovers depends on how quickly the entire economy can rise again!