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the value increase cannot be expected and the preservation of value is difficult, so "preserving money" must be given priority. regardless of whether the macroeconomic situation is "deflation", one's own cash cannot be "deflated".

written by guan buyu

in just a few days, the mentality of ordinary investors has been on a roller coaster.

first, a number of small and medium-sized commercial banks "collectively cut interest rates" - adjusting deposit product interest rates, ranging from 5 basis points to 50 basis points. this is of course not following the fed's trend, but a helpless move because loans cannot be extended and the spread between deposits and loans has narrowed.

although the major banks have not followed suit, they also have the same difficulties. lowering the deposit interest rate is nothing more than "another boot". when ordinary people once again faced the soul torture of "saving or investing", yang ma launched a big wave, and the stock market went crazy.the central bank has used the most powerful weapon of monetary policy to make choices for us, with the subtext "you are not decent, i will help you be decent."

the excitement is in the play, and the kung fu is outside the play.

investment decisions should not be made in a hurry. organize your thoughts and review the current investment market situation. you must have a clear understanding from macro to micro in order to stay calm in this turbulent era.

01

when talking about investment, we cannot avoid judging the macroeconomic situation.

macroeconomics involves all aspects, international, domestic, fiscal, currency, industry, finance... it is difficult for individual investors to fully grasp it - in fact, neither can most institutional investors, but they can pretend that they are good at it.

"five colors make people blind, and five tones make people deaf." for individual investors, the more they talk about fancy macro topics, the more mistakes they make.

for example, the federal reserve's interest rate cut, which has been highly hyped recently, is also about the "china-u.s. financial war" and the "reflow of trillions of dollars", all of which are talking nonsense.

the federal reserve raised interest rates 11 times in a row, by more than 500 basis points. this has only dropped by 50 basis points, and the u.s. bond interest rate is still at a historical high of over 4.5. what is the driving force for the "reflow of trillions of dollars"? is "returning" to buy long-term government bonds with an interest rate of 2.1%, or is it to provide a bottom line for real estate?

it is precisely because "reshoring" is unrealistic that yang ma took action.

the "china-u.s. financial war" is a conspiracy theory persecuted and delusional. given the level of internationalization of the rmb and the financial ties between china and the united states, the rmb will not be an issue at all when the federal reserve discusses interest rate policy.

the "macro-level issue" of this kind of grand chess theory and conspiracy theory is "living in groups all day long, and words cannot make sense." in layman's terms, it is just full-fledged nonsense. not only is it nutritious, but it also has an obvious mental-reducing effect until it becomes a perennial herbaceous plant of the liliaceae family.

if you are a lover of international issues and apply "geopolitical thinking" to investment decisions in a practical manner, then i would like to advise you - "stay away from investment and cherish life."

picture/picture insect creativity

in fact, investment decisions do not require so much understanding of the macroeconomics. you only need to grasp the key points. the current focus is "asset shortage".

investment means investing in assets. the "quality" of assets is undoubtedly the top priority. macroeconomics talks about everything, and ultimately it all comes down to assets.

"asset shortage" does not mean that there are no assets, but that there are no assets with high asset returns. to be more precise, there is a lack of assets that match returns and risks.

the quantitative judgment of "asset shortage" is very complicated, and it is easier to observe the bond market. individual investors focus on the stock market and real estate market, while the bond market, dominated by institutional players, is easily ignored.

as everyone knows, the bond market is twice the size of the stock market, and its "wind vane" significance at the macro level is even greater. moreover, the data on various indicators of credit debt are "more honest."

the current situation in the bond market is thatwith a huge market worth rmb 140 trillion, “good debt” is hard to find.

to evaluate whether a bond is good or not, you can benchmark it against national bonds. the issuance interest rate of 30-year treasury bonds is 2.6%. treasury bonds are "risk-free assets" and the yield on treasury bonds can be regarded as the most basic income standard.

the situation in today's bond market is that risk and return are inverted. the yield rate of most credit assets is lower than this standard, and only some low-grade credit bonds meet the standard.the risk of credit bonds is higher than that of treasury bonds, but the yield is not as good as that of treasury bonds.

therefore, in the first half of the year, the bond market violently speculated on national debt, and the "central government" was furious. it rose to the "political level" of "disrupting financial order" and was able to suppress this evil fire.

market funds are holding back hundreds of billions of credit bonds and are rushing to buy treasury bonds, which fully illustrates the extent of the "asset shortage." the ebb and flow of the bond market is a window for individual investors to observe the macroeconomics.

however, it should be noted that due to differences in national conditions, the treasury bond yields that are used as market yield indicators in other countries are more reflective of policy guidance in our country - if the central government says that speculation is not allowed, the treasury bond yields will not move. now another wave of monetary policy has been superimposed, making observation more difficult.

however, indicators such as default rates and rising yields always have reference value.

in short, individual investors may not invest in bonds, but they cannot ignore the bond market. only when there is an obvious and stable improvement trend in the "asset shortage" can investment risks be safe and controllable.

02

in the macro context of "asset shortage", investment decisions must be made more cautiously.

your mentality must be stable. the more "you don't know what to invest in," the more stable you must be. because "i don't know what to invest in", i feel like the economy is "short of assets". individual investors can lack investment knowledge, but they cannot lack economic common sense.

of course, it’s not that the “asset shortage” on the macro level means that there are really no good assets to invest in, but that the difficulty factor has doubled - panning for gold in gold mines and panning for gold in sand, the success rate is not even a little bit different.

“every crisis contains new opportunities” is true.but he is honey and you are arsenic. buffett's opportunities belong only to buffett.

the stock market under the background of "asset shortage" is much more complicated than the bond market. the bond market is for science students with hard-core data, while the stock market is for liberal arts students with excessive imagination.

the general rise stimulated by this round of central government policies is worthy of "celebration from all over the world". however, the central bank's red envelope is an extraordinary measure and cannot be long-term. perhaps in the future, china's stock market cycle will switch to the "central mother pays cycle". at present, it is still the same old recipe and old taste.

industrial policy is also a major source of inspiration. industrial transformation and upgrading are of course a good thing, but where it will turn and how long it will take, it is difficult for ordinary investors to judge. a good story is not necessarily a good asset; it may also be a good bubble or a good sickle.

picture/picture insect creativity

in the past, many "themes" and "concepts" were guided by real money subsidies from industrial policies. nowadays, finances are tight and there is no sunshine and rain of subsidies. the themes are just themes and the concepts are just concepts.

today there is a wave of "emerging industries", and tomorrow it will be "a certain concept". hot spots switch quickly and hot money comes in and out quickly. only high-end players who are bold and have a lot of money and can afford to lose are worthy of such a high-end game.

low-end players who try and make mistakes with pension money, wife's money, and grocery money must have the self-awareness to stay away from them.you can't survive the tailwinds of the bull market, so don't challenge your limits in the headwinds.

if you can't afford it or can't play it, you have to accept your fate.

if you cannot add value, you have to settle for value preservation. maintaining value is extremely difficult. the "asset shortage" has caused banks to not know where to put their money. in the past, so-called "value-preserving" financial management was also in danger of being "unsustainable."

therefore, for bank financial management, you must also choose a bank with a strong foundation and good reputation to avoid "trusting someone else". we must also choose funds that have a clear direction of investment, and don’t become the receiver of local bonds and urban investment bonds in a muddle-headed manner.

as for the "guarantee", the financial manager's verbal promises are unfounded and are for reference only.

we should be even more cautious about financial management insurance.although the central bank's policy package this time has given special attention to insurance companies, monetary policy will also have the greatest impact on financial management insurance, which can last for ten or twenty years.

money is pouring from the sky. without long-term support from high-quality assets, can the actual income of financial insurance be faster than the speed at which "money turns to hair"?

banks are having a rough time, so where can insurance companies find better assets? buying insurance to seek peace of mind is a risk-resistant choice, but the "need and need" of financial insurance at the moment is most likely to be "drawing a big pie", or a difficult task of drawing a circle with the left hand and a square with the right hand.

allocating some "hard currency" according to your ability is more suitable for value-preserving investment than haphazardly purchasing financial products.

03

in short, investment decisions under the background of "asset shortage" need to be subtracted.

the value increase cannot be expected and the preservation of value is difficult, so "preserving money" must be given priority. regardless of whether the macroeconomic situation is "deflation", one's own cash cannot be "deflated".

of course, maintaining a cash reserve doesn't mean saving is the only option. personal credit loans, which serve as a pool of cash reserves, are also optional.

under the pressure of "asset shortage", financial institutions have to lower their profile to win loan customers, and the threshold and cost of obtaining personal credit lines will also be reduced accordingly. to some extent, this can be regarded as a disguised investment to increase cash reserves.

however, this operation requires a high degree of self-discipline - strictly limit the use of personal credit to a pool of funds for emergencies, and cannot be used as waste funds for large-scale consumption, let alone investment leverage. if you are ready to borrow money to speculate in stocks, you should stop thinking about it.success is the icing on the cake, but if you fail, who will help you in times of need?

picture/picture insect creativity

all in all, don’t take chances when making investment decisions in the era of “asset shortage”.

monetary policy governs currency and changes the quality of currency, not the underlying quality of assets. gold will definitely shine, mud that cannot support the wall is destined to be unable to support the wall.

don’t test human nature when making investment decisions.human nature cannot stand the test, whether it is other people's or your own.

don't test your luck either. luck in the world is in the same room. the son of luck owns nine and a half buckets, and everyone in the world shares the rest. you can weigh it yourself.

everyone understands the principle of taking action when it is time to take action. the difficulty has always been the determination to resist temptation and the determination to get off.