news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

zhao jian, founding president of xijing research institute, member of china chief economist forum

this bull market is unprecedentedcrazy cow, is the above "policy cow” with the following"gambler bull"the nuclear storm caused by the perfect combination. it can be concluded that there will be many people making crazy money, but the final outcome is still that countless gamblers will lose their money.

therefore, it mustwe must have a clear understanding of this bull market, don’t think you have become a stock god just because you made a lot of money in the early stage.at the end of the day, the king is the one who escapes unscathed and makes money.. therefore it is necessary to formulate asurvival manual，guarantee that after this mad cow is over, he will still be alive and become a winner。

from a scholar's point of view, i don't want to see countless ordinary people who don't understand the dangers of the market, desperately rushing into the stormy waves of mad cows, and letting their small wealth be destroyed again. recently, there have been many friends who borrowed money to speculate in stocks. i must kindly remind and issue a warning.

1，most people will still be the price of this mad cow game. regardless of the rapid increase in income now, if you cannot have a clear understanding of the overall situation, the outcome is doomed.the fundamental structure of this casino has not changed, so the win-loss structure of nine out of ten bets will not change. if there is any change, it will be after this mad cow is over.there will be fewer people making more money and more people losing money - the polarization will be very serious.。

2，everyone is drunk, i am awake alone, leaving half awake and half drunk. in the early days of a bull market, be more greedy than others when you are greedy; when the bull market ends, be more fearful than others when you are fearful. and all of this requires a high degree of sensitivity to the environment and information. this requires establishing your own information processing model and trading methodology. and this depends on the theoretical framework + empirical intuition. in the rough sea, it is not the novices who drown, nor the absolute veterans, but the novices who think they are veterans.. the bible says pride is the greatest sin.

3. first of all, we must understandthe mechanism behind the occurrence of mad cow this time. this time the mad cow is unprecedentedly epic, coming from the crazy policy changes from the top and the crazy "gambler behavior" of investors. the three-year bear market has caused 90% of investors to lose money. psychology has always emphasized thatonly losing money makes people become gamblers, making money will not.three years of bear market have cultivated hundreds of millions of gamblers in china。

4. secondly, we need to see the ending,this time the mad cow will drive "gamblers" into the market crazily, but it will also end up burying more people and cultivating more gamblers.. if this bull market is not managed well, the violent market fluctuations may cause greater damage to the vitality of the country and society. in the current economic and social situation, it may be the "last breath". i can assert that when this mad cow comes to an end, more people will lose money than make money.

5，gambler investors are eager to turn over as soon as possible, so at all costs, they swarm into the stock market red-eyed, causing the market trend of several months to be completed in a day or two, and even paralyzing the system, directly wiping out the short sellers. it can be said that in this long-short war, the policymakers used the "ultimate weapon" from the beginning, directly hitting the market without leaving any way out, and investors followed suit without hesitation.

6，the nuclear deterrence of the bulls will make the subsequent shorts frightened. the bull market will be unstoppable and it will be difficult to even make a decent adjustment. this is not a healthy bull market. however, it doesn't matter, and it is very helpless. in the three-year bear market, we can only use such a "stimulant", violently increase the dosage of the medicine, increase the power and hit hard, otherwise we will not be able to activate the market that has been in shock for many years.

7. so this bull market iscarnival with the majority of gambler-type investors, it is easy to make money, and it is also easy to lose money. casinos prefer to make money from gamblers because gamblers do whatever it takes. and losses will create more gamblers.

8，where did the first wave of “smart money” come from?due to the information gap, foreign capital + "privileged" private equity + old retail investors are the first to get the smell of information and operate flexibly. this wave of "smart money" is also "crazy money", crowding onto the bus and stepping on it. this scene happens once in a century. it seems that the epic scene of wall street retail investors short-selling fund managers a few years ago was staged.

9，once a trend starts, it is difficult to change. my research in the past two years has actually been waiting for this moment, and it has been laid out in the past month (and i was repeatedly slapped in the face in the middle). however, i didn't expect the momentum to be so huge. the money for poor cognition and poor information has been earned, and the next step is to earn money for poor emotions and poor concentration. the bull market does not have an end. no matter how strong the situation is, you must hold on to your position until you see clues of a trend reversal.

10. when will the trend reverse? to untie the bell, one must tie the bell.it is policy that ignites the mad cow, and it will also be policy that ends the trend.. think about the capital allocation check in 2015 when the big bulls were in the market.

11，bull market three-stage rocket, policy, sentiment, leverage. davis' double rise was the climax. in the policy rocket, the central government is the first level, followed by finance. emotions have been ignited, but there are still many who are hesitant. leverage has not yet fully begun. major shareholders have repurchased new policies, financing, credit loans, etc.internet celebrity fund, otc capital allocation, etc. once these levers are ignited, it will be another big storm.

12，an epic capital migration is coming soon, that is, from all fixed income categories such as debt funds and financial management, tens of trillions of dollars will be migrated to equity.. bonds have entered a bear market, and a new wave of financial losses will soon appear.

13，the opportunity to get on the bus is also provided by the policy., such a hot market, the fluctuations in the bond market, and the financial losses of banks will all put pressure on policymakers and pour some cold water on them, leading to market adjustments. this is a good opportunity to get on the bus.

14，the real turning point impact will come from the policy's concerns about the people's leveraged stock trading., if the policy starts to show signals similar to the capital allocation check, you need to leave the market resolutely. but at this time, i already feel that i am a stock god.how many investors and gamblers who are immersed in the dream of the bull market are willing to wake up?