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financial associated press, september 27 (reporter chen junlan and zhao xinrui)regarding the unexpected policy surprise, citic securities research institute posted a post on its official account late at night, with a title that contained only one word "qian". some sell-side analysts bluntly said, "enjoy the moment!"

on september 26, the central committee of the communist party of china held a politburo meeting to deploy economic work and convey a major determination to stabilize growth and expectations.

citic securities research institute pointed out that the september politburo meeting rarely analyzed the economic situation. the lifeline of the country involves policies in many fields such as finance, currency, capital market, employment, and private economy. the signal is clear, and can be summed up in one word: do it! it is also mentioned that the "package" policy of the state council information office on september 24 has released positive policy signals, and we may continue to look forward to more targeted and effective policies. policies to stabilize growth will be implemented. regarding the spirit conveyed by the meeting, four major highlights can be seen in the interpretation of brokerage research reports.

not only that, many chief economists, chief strategists, etc. used the word "qian" as the title of the copywriting they posted on wechat moments for their own research reports.

highlight 1: releasing major positive signals

politburo meetings of the cpc central committee are usually held once a month. politburo meetings in april, july and december each year usually involve economic issues and analyze the economic situation in the first quarter, first half of the year and the whole year. research and make arrangements for subsequent economic work. after two months, the political bureau meeting with the theme of economic work was held again. judging from past experience, this has shown that policymakers attach great importance to the economic situation.

how is this politburo meeting different from previous meetings? shenwan hongyuan macro research interpreted that the september politburo meeting analyzed and studied the economic situation and economic work for the first time since 2014, and the signals of stabilizing the economy and stabilizing growth were obvious. the meeting emphasized “the need to increase countercyclical adjustments to fiscal and monetary policies,” which was more positive than the politburo meeting in july. the politburo meeting in july required fiscal and monetary policies to "strengthen countercyclical adjustments and implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies." by comparison, the statement at the politburo meeting in september was significantly strengthened. the biggest difference between the two is that there is no mention of "sound monetary policy", which shows that the policy provides guidance for monetary easing.

regarding the differences of this meeting, industrial securities macro said it is unusual to hold an economic-themed politburo meeting at this time in september, which is the first time since 2013. against the backdrop of weakening economic recovery momentum since the second quarter and rising market expectations for policies to stabilize growth, this politburo meeting exceeded expectations and responded to market expectations. in addition, this politburo meeting sent a clear positive signal. a package of early monetary and financial policies has been deployed, and subsequent proactive fiscal policies may also be expected. the next regular observation time point is the national people's congress standing committee meeting in late october. , before that, you also need to pay attention to interviews with the standing committee of the state council and relevant meetings of the ministry of finance.

yi ao, chief macroeconomist of huatai securities, believes that this politburo meeting sent two signals. first, this meeting confirmed the policy signal conveyed by the financial policy meeting on september 24, reflecting that the intensity and urgency of policies to stabilize growth and market stabilization have increased; second, compared with the financial policy package on september 24, there are still many "incremental" statements, especially policy arrangements in aspects such as protecting people's livelihood, promoting consumption, maintaining employment, and stabilizing expectations. at the same time, this politburo meeting took a step further in the management of monetary policy expectations and proposed a strong interest rate cut. in addition, this meeting also made active arrangements to supplement the fiscal revenue gap and expand local government investment. it is expected that the specific policy of fiscal easing will be further clarified before the end of october.

yan xiang, chief economist of huafu securities, said that the overall policy measures of this politburo meeting exceeded expectations, and the direction was clearer and stronger: first, in terms of timing, the politburo meeting held in september rarely touched on economic issues. the politburo meeting set the tone for the follow-up economic work by "effectively implementing existing policies and stepping up efforts to launch incremental policies", which released a very positive signal. second, macroeconomic policy support has been significantly increased. in addition to increasing countercyclical adjustments in fiscal and monetary policies, this politburo meeting set the tone for the first time to promote the real estate industry to "stop falling and stabilize", reflecting the party central committee's commitment to promoting the stability of the real estate market. firm determination for healthy development. third, it is clearly stated that efforts should be made to boost the capital market and vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, which reflects the great importance attached by the party central committee. this policy measure will also better play the important function of the capital market.

highlight 2: stability is the top priority, and the determination to maintain stability in the real estate industry is clearer

the politburo meeting set the tone for the real estate market very clearly. the meeting pointed out that the market should be promoted to "stop falling and stabilize." including "responding to the concerns of the masses and adjusting the housing purchase restriction policy", the probability of relaxing the purchase restriction policy for front-line real estate has increased significantly. compared with the july politburo meeting, the attitude is firmer and the requirements are more specific. the tone has shifted from risk prevention and control to the reversal of the downward trend.

citic securities research institute believes that, judging from relevant statements at the meeting, the overall goal of policy regulation of the real estate market is to "stop the decline and stabilize the market." the main policy focus is to reduce supply on the one hand, that is, "strictly control the increment and optimize the construction of commercial housing." inventory and improve quality"; on the other hand, it is to boost demand, that is, to "respond to the concerns of the masses and adjust the housing purchase restriction policy." logically speaking, if the decline in housing prices narrows or stabilizes, it will help reduce the loss of residents' wealth effect, and the combined reduction of existing mortgage interest rates will boost residents' consumption. however, international experience shows that the adjustment of the real estate market has a certain degree of inertia, and it remains to be seen when the policy will take effect. in addition, the meeting proposed to resolutely promote the construction of a new model of real estate development, requiring that land, taxation, finance and other policies be improved as soon as possible. the construction of affordable housing may become one of the priorities of government investment.

the research department of cicc mentioned that under the current background of weak real estate sales and investment, the positive statements on the real estate field at this meeting have strong signaling significance and will help boost market confidence. "for the construction of commercial housing, we must strictly control the increment, optimize the stock, improve the quality, increase the intensity of loans for 'white list' projects, and support the revitalization of the stock of idle land." from the perspective of supply, alleviating the current contradiction between real estate supply and demand and strictly controlling increment will help reduce supply and accelerate the elimination of real estate. increasing the loan supply for "whitelist" projects will help alleviate the liquidity problems of real estate developers and help further promote the "guaranteed delivery of buildings". we expect that more detailed policies will be introduced in the future to promote the establishment of a new model of real estate development.

the research team of huajin securities believes that the meeting requires "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", and new policies are mainly focused on the supply side. in terms of new residential supply, it is required to "strictly control the increase, optimize the stock, and improve the quality", which is consistent with in line with the current situation where there have been many suspended construction projects and large potential supply in the past few years, by increasing the loan supply for "white list" projects, improving the liquidity of soundly operating real estate companies, and revitalizing the capital circulation of the real estate industry chain, it is expected to increase the completion of real estate construction resumption can not only match the new real estate demand that will gradually bottom out and stabilize in the future, but also increase the supply of affordable housing. "supporting the revitalization of existing idle land" echoes the recent mention by the central bank of supporting policy banks and other policy banks in acquiring existing land held by developers. it is expected to reduce the burden on developers from the upstream link and use the land originally planned to increase the supply of commercial housing to increase the construction of affordable housing. , reducing the burden on developers. the demand side has continued the policy path of "adjusting the housing purchase restriction policy" but avoiding short-term direct stimulus, which means that when the new model of real estate development bottoms out will still depend to a greater extent on the progress of market-oriented adjustments on the demand side.

xu fei, head of the wanlian securities research institute and chief macro analyst, said that this meeting has a lot of deployment of real estate policies. at present, stabilizing real estate is of higher importance for stabilizing the economy. the policy has made it clear to promote real estate to "stop falling and return to stability." , helping to boost residents’ confidence in buying houses. there may still be more policies in the fourth quarter, and there is still plenty of room for “city-specific policies”. the reduction in mortgage interest rates continues the policy deployment of the "924 national congress" and can effectively reduce residents' debt-side pressure. the increased lending for "whitelist" projects will help revitalize the existing assets of high-quality real estate companies, improve liquidity and ease debt repayment pressure. the policy proposes that "the construction of commercial housing must strictly control the increment, optimize the stock, and improve the quality." the current pressure on residential destocking is still great, and the policy continues to promote trade-in, real estate acquisition and storage, etc. the land supply is in a slowdown trend, and real estate destocking is expected accelerate.

in addition, pan yunjiao, chief analyst of the real estate industry chain of wanlian securities, believes that the policy attitude towards supporting the real estate industry has further strengthened, and it is expected that the short-term industry fundamentals may be marginally improved under the promotion of a series of policies.

highlight 3: further emphasis on capital markets

compared with previous politburo meetings, this meeting added "efforts" before "boosting the capital market", indicating a further increased emphasis. specific methods include, on the one hand, vigorously guiding medium- and long-term funds to enter the market, opening up barriers to the entry of social security, insurance, financial management and other funds into the market, supporting mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, steadily advancing the reform of public funds, and studying and introducing policies and measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.

the galaxy securities macro research team mentioned that, first of all, compared with the "active capital market" at the politburo meeting in july 23 and the "multiple measures to promote the healthy development of the capital market" at the politburo meeting in april 24, this time "efforts "to boost the capital market" has taken a more proactive stance, focusing on the possibility of the introduction of stabilization funds. secondly, we should vigorously guide medium and long-term funds such as social security, insurance, and financial management to enter the market, and have more specific requirements for relevant entities of "long-term money and long-term investment". third, support mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, especially support the transformation and upgrading of listed companies towards new quality productivity, and encourage listed companies to strengthen industrial integration. fourth, steadily promote the reform of public funds, put "functional construction" in the first place, and enhance investors' sense of gain.

when it comes to the importance of policies to the capital market, citic securities research institute stated that from the politburo meeting in july that emphasized the importance of risk prevention in the capital market, to the state council information office press conference on september 24 announcing the creation of two new monetary policy tools to support the stock market has developed steadily, and on september 24, the china securities regulatory commission issued six m&a and market value management guidelines. we believe that under the new "nine national articles" framework, supporting policies for the capital market will continue to be implemented. on the one hand, the follow-up focus will be on the upcoming "guiding opinions on promoting medium and long-term capital entry into the market", or efforts will be made from three aspects: vigorously developing equity public funds, improving the "long-term money and long-term investment" institutional environment, and continuing to improve the capital market ecology. on the other hand, the politburo meeting in september stated that it would study and introduce policies and measures to protect small and medium-sized investors. we believe that this is a key step in the reform of the capital market and will help enhance the implementation effect of previous delisting, dividend and other rules.

yan xiang, chief economist of huafu securities, pointed out that the capital market has a unique and important function in serving the real economy, and boosting the capital market can better serve the real economy. as an important hub linking finance and the real economy, an effective capital market can, on the one hand, play the role of resource allocation, guide the flow of funds into high-quality listed companies, and help the development of the real economy. on the other hand, it can also increase residents' property income and satisfy their growing wealth. an important channel for managing demand. this politburo meeting clearly stated that efforts should be made to boost the capital market, which reflects the great importance attached by the party central committee. this policy measure will also better play the important function of the capital market.

in addition, guiding medium and long-term funds to enter the market is an important measure to boost the capital market and enhance the inherent stability of the capital market. on the one hand, guiding more medium- and long-term funds into the market can bring more incremental funds to the capital market. on the other hand, because medium- and long-term funds have the characteristics of higher professionalism and stronger stability, the proportion of medium- and long-term funds has increased. the improvement is not only conducive to the optimization of investor structure and the cultivation of market value investment concepts, but also can better play the role of "stabilizer" and "ballast" when market fluctuations are large, and is also important to the improvement of the capital market ecology. promotion effect. previously, the china securities regulatory commission stated that it would issue the "guiding opinions on promoting the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market" in the near future. this politburo meeting once again clearly stated that it is necessary to "vigorously guide the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market and open up the blocking points for funds such as social security, insurance, and wealth management to enter the market." it is expected to accelerate the construction of a long-term mechanism for patient capital inflows and form a cycle of continuous inflow of medium and long-term funds.

the macro research team of huajin securities stated that this politburo meeting has boosted the importance of the capital market, cultivating and accelerating the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, supporting mergers and acquisitions and restructuring, and promoting the reform of the public fund industry as the three main directions. the meeting rarely explicitly stated the requirement to "strive to boost the capital market," showing that the capital market, as a comprehensive reflection of the confidence of economic entities and the main financing channel for new productive forces, has further enhanced its policy importance. new policies in the future will focus on three major directions:

the first is to guide medium and long-term funds into the market. it is expected that long-term funds from non-fund multi-level asset management institutions such as social security, insurance, and wealth management institutions entering the capital market will receive greater policy encouragement and support.

the second is to support mergers, acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, aiming to control the pace of stock market financing while stimulating the industry vitality of listed companies to support the development of new productive forces.

the third is to promote the reform of public funds to protect the legitimate interests of small and medium-sized investors, standardize and enrich the professional level of the multi-level asset management industry, and cultivate long-term patient capital.

highlight 4: a-share market is expected to continue

in terms of the stock market, based on the introduction of this round of policies that exceed expectations, market confidence is expected to be effectively boosted, and the a-share market may usher in a recovery trend.

the cicc research department analyzed that the politburo meeting further released signals of policy increases, and the rise of a-shares is expected to continue. on the one hand, the timing of this politburo meeting attracted market attention. on the other hand, combined with the previous national council meeting, it made clearer stance on policy responses that investors are more concerned about, especially fiscal policy, and paid high attention to the capital market. . cicc believes that this meeting will have a positive impact on the market and is expected to further stabilize investor confidence. under the current environment, the rise of the a-share market is expected to continue.

huatai securities research believes that for the capital market, unblocking congestion points requires more conditions, and the key is development and profit expectations. this week's financial policy added two stock market liquidity support tools, which provide a bottom line for the stock market and help financial institutions cope with redemptions and sell-offs. however, the effect on incremental funds is still indirect. the money-making effect is conducive to the formation of a positive cycle. that is, when stocks rise and obtain excess returns, financing entities will be more willing to raise funds again to continue to increase their holdings or repurchase stocks, thus further helping to push stocks to rise, the key links in transmission are profit expectations and the market's money-making effect.

lin rongxiong, chief strategist of sdic securities, said that although whether the market continues should focus on the implementation of subsequent policy details and data-level verification, he believes that the most important thing is to analyze and clarify whether this series of positive factors are caused by internal or external factors.

the so-called external factors mean that the current series of favorable policies are intended to prepare sufficient economic and market environment for the return of global capital after the federal reserve cuts interest rates; the so-called internal factors mean that the current series of policies are based on major fundamental changes based on the current status of the domestic economy and capital markets. steering. although both internal and external factors are obviously beneficial, there is a certain difference in the impact of the two on pricing: if it is an internal factor, then this shift will have a continued positive impact on a-share pricing. it is expected that a-shares will be stronger than hong kong stocks in the future, and the market will growth gem index is the best. the oversold rebound of domestic demand will not only continue, but also be the main theme. if it is an external factor, it is more based on making appropriate adjustments to adapt to the external environment. if the overall framework does not change, then it is expected that hong kong stocks will still be better than a-shares in the future. strong, structural growth will still be stronger than value.