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what can you learn to avoid unemployment in the next 10 years? | interview with yuval noah harari, author of sapiens: a brief history of humankind

2024-09-15

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there are only 24 hours in a day, and a reasonable arrangement is 8 hours of sleep, 8 hours of work, and the other 8 hours of free entertainment. but we often feel that time is not enough, or the other extreme is that time is gone without knowing it.

the sense of crisis of the internet always hangs over young people. in the eyes of the older generation, generation z youth are good at playing with the internet, know a lot, and can do many things that they cannot do; but the longer young people spend on the internet, the more they feel that they are always on 2g speed and know nothing.

behind this anxiety, the ubiquitous algorithms are running forever, the news never stops, the market never closes, and social networks are always running.

algorithms bring on a strong case of social media burnout.we use big data systems to score and choose our food, clothing, housing and transportation, stay in the information cocoon prepared for us by algorithms through electronic screens, and even establish connections with real people through virtual chat software - but we still often feel like we are out of touch with the times.

more than a decade ago, when yuval noah harari wrote sapiens: the reason why humans have been able to stand at the top of homo sapiens and develop and evolve a prosperous civilization for thousands of years is that we have the ability to tell stories. we can create and believe in fictional concepts such as laws, religions, companies and countries, which effectively maintain the operating order of human society.

however, the development of computers may surpass human capabilities in decision-making, data processing and creativity, and gradually replace human dominance in society.

this prophecy is gradually becoming a reality.

he started writing a new book in 2018."beyond homo sapiens: a brief history of information networks from the stone age to the ai ​​age", with the backdrop of the explosion of artificial intelligence, he is more concerned about what impact this will have on ordinary people.

"we are organic animals that live according to the organic cycle of day and night, summer and winter, sometimes active, sometimes relaxed. but now we are forced to live in an environment dominated by computers that never rest. they also force us to remain always active - but if you force an organism to be always active, the end result is bound to be collapse and death."yuval noah harari told 36kr’s “houlang research institute”.

many young people are also aware of the negative impact of information networks on themselves. they have begun to actively train algorithms, challenge themselves not to use mobile phones for xx days, quit the internet, and use social media - but people cannot go against the trend and isolate themselves from algorithms forever. in the information age, how to deal with uncertainty and anxiety is a compulsory subject for everyone.

this new book is about how a carbon-based organism in a silicon-based world should prepare to adapt to a world dominated by inorganic silicon chips.36kr's "houlang research institute" interviewed yuval noah harari and talked to him about the changes in the era of young people in china and the issues that concern them most.

Q&A 01

houlang research institute:algorithms control our attention.

i saw a joke about a young man who opened his phone to call an ambulance for his injured friend, but was taken to a short video platform by a pop-up window, and he just clicked on it and watched it, completely forgetting that his friend was injured.

many people are reflecting now.we have lost the ability to actively retrieve information and are mostly receiving information passively. from a historical perspective, when did humans begin to gradually lose this ability?

harari:to understand what has changed in the way we consume information, use the analogy of food. 100 years ago, food was scarce, so people ate whatever they could find, and they liked energy-dense foods that were high in fat and sugar. now that food is plentiful, if people still eat everything, they will get sick if they consume too much fat and sugar. so people start dieting.

the same goes for information.in the past, information was scarce, so i took whatever i could get. now we are overwhelmed with information, especially useless information - which can also make us sick. we need to go on an information diet.

the first step in going on an information diet is to give up the idea that more information is always good for us. the second step is to consciously screen the quality of information. just as we must be careful about the food we eat, we should also be careful about the mental food we put into our brains. in particular,avoid filling your brain with excessive hatred, greed and junk information.

many countries now label junk food ingredients - "this contains 40% sugar, 20% fat". maybe we should force information providers to do the same, such as listing the content of certain videos before watching them - "this contains 40% greed, 20% hatred". if you want to consume some such "harmful" information, at least understand its harm.

finally, it’s helpful to go on regular “information fasts.” i personally go on a meditation retreat for a few weeks every year, completely disconnecting from the outside world.i don't watch the news, i don't read any emails, i don't write books, i just meditate. i take the time to digest the information my mind has already taken in, instead of filling it with more. a few weeks is a bit long for most people, but it's good to fast for a day or two every now and then.

Q&A 02

houlang research institute:however, "information anxiety" in the internet age is everywhere.

in the past, we always thought that the more we knew, the better, and we worried that we would miss something if we didn’t check social media for a day.now we are beginning to have difficulty distinguishing what is valid informationand is the seemingly useless information really unnecessary? in the final analysis, what information do you think can be called knowledge?

harari:yes, in the past we equated all information with knowledge, thinking that the more information we had, the more knowledge we had. this is obviously wrong - most information is garbage, and knowledge is the small amount of rare and expensive information.

it’s easy to make up a fascinating “fake news” - you just write whatever comes to your mind without spending a minute on research. but writing a true report is difficult because the research behind it is time-consuming and laborious.the truth you write may get much less attention than "fake news" because the facts are often complicated, and people don't like complicated stories. this means that false information will always spread more easily than the truth.

so in order to protect that scarce and valuable knowledge, we need self-correcting mechanisms - proactively identifying, acknowledging and correcting errors.

self-correction mechanisms are ubiquitous in nature. children learn to walk by relying on effective self-correction mechanisms: you take a step, fall, try a slightly different way, fall again, and correct yourself again until you get it right. science works the same way. we come up with a model, it doesn't work well, we admit our mistakes and change the model. the same is true in politics. good governments admit their mistakes and adjust policies accordingly, while tyrants and religious fanatics claim to be perfect, claiming to know everything and never make any mistakes. they never learn and are not worthy of trust.

so,if someone refuses to admit they are wrong, never trust them. if someone admits they are wrong, they are a true source of knowledge.

Q&A 03

houlang research institute:continuing with the previous question, in recent years the "theory of the uselessness of knowledge", especially the "theory of the uselessness of liberal arts", has become very popular.

when many young people who graduated from prestigious universities become unemployed right after graduation and cannot find a job, they still feel confused - if they had known earlier, they would have studied mathematics, physics and chemistry.humans are better at storytelling, but this ability has now become the least profitable and least efficient area and has been abandoned by everyone. what do you think of this situation?

harari:people now feel that there is a great deal of uncertainty about their job prospects. artificial intelligence has rapidly changed the job market, so much so that we cannot predict what skills will be needed in the future. the same is true for science and engineering. many people think that learning programming and coding is important because computers are the future. but a few years later,ai coding may be better than humans, so does that mean we no longer need human programmers? on the contrary, perhaps we will need philosophers and psychologists more at that time, because the dramatic changes in the world will bring more philosophical and psychological problems.

for example, to achieve intelligent self-driving of vehicles, we must also encode ethical rules into the driving program. what if an emergency occurs and the vehicle must endanger the safety of the passengers in order to save pedestrians? perhaps human programmers are not needed to solve such problems, because ai can write this code, but (we) need human philosophers to formulate ethical rules for ai.

likewise, experts in science and engineering cannot tell you how ai will affect human mental health, intimate relationships, and social life. for that you need historians, psychologists, and artists. look at the world around us - computer scientists invented social media algorithms, but they could not foresee the negative impacts on children. who do you think is best suited to help improve the situation for children - people who study computers or people who study humans?

Q&A 04

houlang research institute:algorithms are also influencing our behavior.

now we are used to listening to how algorithms rate our food, clothing and daily necessities, and even potential partners for intimate relationships can be quantified by software. but on the contrary, we feel that many things have become difficult - highly rated restaurants may not be delicious, and the people matched by the software may not be compatible.do algorithms really improve efficiency? why do we feel that life is getting more and more boring?

harari:relying on algorithms to evaluate everything can have devastating effects.we are all forced to become "passive consumers" rather than "active producers."

in the case of relationships, i could try to find my soulmate through algorithmic matching. but if i were to do that, i would have to assume that there is someone out there somewhere who i think i am meant to be with—i just need to find him or her. it’s like a very difficult scavenger hunt, and there are 8 billion people on earth. how can i find them?

to solve this problem, i outsourced this job to the algorithm. i don't need to do anything myself, just sit back and wait for the algorithm to work. based on a massive amount of data, the algorithm will score my potential partners and let me try those with the highest scores. if i am not satisfied with these "products", i will just throw it back on the shelf and wait for the algorithm to recommend me a better product. anyway, my soul mate is still somewhere in the world, and the algorithm will find him for me sooner or later, right?

this attitude is terrible. it stimulates us to constantly reject potential candidates because of minor flaws and wait for the perfect person to appear. on the contrary, it does not encourage me to change myself. i am just passively accepting the product of "partner".

but we can also try another approach - to see humans as creators of intimate relationships, rather than consumers. the problem is not how to find the perfect partner at all. the "perfect partner" does not exist. the real problem is that no matter who the algorithm finds for me, i need to work hard to build a good relationship. the real difficulty in finding love is not finding that elusive soul mate, but working hard every day to build relationships with real people around me and working hard to change the problems in my own behavior and thinking patterns. this work, i can't expect any algorithm to do it for me.

Q&A 05

houlang research institute:many people are worried that ai will replace our jobs, while some people think there is no need to worry, as ai will not be able to understand human creativity and empathy for at least 10 years.

what do you think about this?if you want to build up skills and knowledge, or be mentally prepared for the upcoming era of artificial intelligence, what advice would you give to young people of generation z?

harari:it’s true that ai will change the job market, but it’s hard to predict exactly which jobs will change or disappear, and intuition can be misleading.

for example, we usually think of doctors as more important than nurses, at least in terms of salary and social status.but ai may be more likely to replace doctors than nurses.why? many doctors’ jobs are mainly about analyzing data. they receive a lot of data about my symptoms and medical history, analyze the data, diagnose the disease, and recommend treatment options. this kind of data analysis is precisely the advantage of artificial intelligence, and they will soon be able to do better than humans.

but nurses' jobs are more than just analyzing data. they also need good manual dexterity and social skills to change bandages and give vaccinations to crying children. these are more difficult to automate. therefore, ai doctors may appear faster than robot nurses.

so if you want to give some advice to young people,the safest approach is to learn a wider range of skills rather than focusing on a specific vertical skill, such as programming. they should improve their hands-on ability and empathy, just as they used to exercise their intelligence. motor skills and social skills are equally important.the most important thing, of course, is the ability to learn and change throughout your life. to thrive in the 21st century, you need a very flexible mind.

so how do you develop a flexible mind? you have to first understand how your mind works. where do your thoughts and feelings come from? why do you like certain things and hate others? what shapes your fears and desires? some people explore these questions through meditation, others through therapy, art, or exercise. whatever method works for you, invest your time and energy in it. understanding your mind is the best gift you can give yourself.

Q&A 06

houlang research institute:"artificial intelligence can make decisions without developing consciousness, threatening human civilization."based on the current development trend of ai, which industries will be impacted first? what major changes do you think will happen to the order of the human world in the next five years (10 years is a bit too long given the current development speed)?

harari:the threat of ai to the world order is well understood, such as a tyrant using ai to control another country's nuclear weapons, or terrorists instructing ai to create a new epidemic. imagine the financial world, which is the ideal playground for ai - a pure field of information and mathematics. it is still difficult for ai to drive cars autonomously because it requires moving and interacting in the messy physical world.it’s hard to define what success is in the physical world, but in the digital world, mathematics makes it easy to define success., with ai processing trade, more dollars equals mission accomplished.

suppose an investment fund assigns ai a task to make as many dollars as possible. not only will ai be able to develop new investment strategies, it may even develop entirely new financial instruments that are completely beyond human understanding.

maybe everything is great for a few years, new financial instruments invented by ai cause the market to soar, and investors make trillions of dollars, but then, what if there is a crash bigger than the 2008 financial crisis?financial instruments created by artificial intelligence are like black boxes. even if they are proven to have dangerous flaws, humans will have no way to regulate them because neither financial economists nor politicians understand how they work.

Q&A 07

houlang research institute:social media will repeat and amplify the mistakes of human society. what is even more worrying is that it is difficult for us to detect which judgments are made by algorithms.

for example, the idea of ​​favoring boys over girls and the "white, young and thin aesthetic" are actually resisted by many people, but the voices of these resistance will not be transmitted to the mobile phones of those who support it.so, what should we do if we want to keep an open mind and self-correction mechanism?

harari:as mentioned above, the most important thing is to better understand our own minds, because algorithms will use our own weaknesses against us. manipulative algorithms cannot create greed and hatred out of thin air. they need to find the desires and hatreds that already exist in your heart in order to press your emotional buttons and manipulate you to do what he wants.

since ancient times, wise men have repeatedly advised people to "know yourself" first. however, in the era of buddha and confucius, there was no such great pressure. if you don't want to understand yourself, you will still be a black box to others, and no one can guess you. but now the situation is different - as you read these words, the algorithms of major companies and institutions are working hard to interpret you as a person.if algorithms know you better than you know yourself, they can easily manipulate you. therefore, this era requires us to work hard to "know ourselves".

Q&A 08

houlang research institute:in your book sapiens: a brief history of humankind, you mentioned that “the general trend of human civilization is that after a long period of division, unity is inevitable.” so does this conclusion remain unchanged after artificial intelligence came onto the historical stage?

but why do we feel that in the post-epidemic era, people seem to be less and less able to understand the words of others, especially those who are different from themselves?

harari:it is indeed unfortunate that we are now seeing a decline in global cooperation and an increase in international tensions. this is very dangerous because no single country, no matter how powerful, can prevent ecological collapse, avoid world war iii, or regulate artificial intelligence on its own. if countries cannot find a way to cooperate on these issues, humanity will be destroyed.

despite this, some politicians oppose global cooperation because they see it as “anti-patriotic.” this is a dangerous mistake—there is no contradiction between patriotism and globalism, and patriotism does not mean hatred of foreigners.patriotism requires love for your fellow man, but ensuring your fellow man’s safety and prosperity requires cooperation with other countries. as with issues like the environment and artificial intelligence, being good at global cooperation is an act of patriotism.

Q&A 09

houlang research institute:frankly speaking, as content practitioners, we also feel that it is getting harder and harder to do our job. highly read articles and truly valuable articles are often two different things, but it is often the highly read articles that will have a positive impact on our salaries.as a processor and producer of information, how should the media respond to this war with algorithms?

harari:first, we should always maintain a sense of responsibility. the information produced and released by the media is like seeds sown in the hearts of millions of people. if we sow greed, hatred or ignorance in the hearts of millions of people, it will cause suffering on a large scale. secondly,we should not despair about algorithmic mechanisms - it’s not that we have failed in our attempts to fight them, but that we simply haven’t tried yet.

the automotive industry is a good comparison. everyone agrees that when a company makes a car, they have to invest a lot of budget and energy to ensure safety, and there are many regulations to limit how the car can be driven. but when companies develop algorithms, they invest almost no resources to ensure the safety of the cyber world, and there are no regulations to limit the operation of the algorithm in the world. this is very dangerous because the algorithm is much more powerful than the car, and it can cause more physical and psychological damage.

therefore, the same principles that apply to cars should be applied to algorithms. ai companies should invest at least 20% of their budgets in safety research. ai must obey the same rules of the human world as cars do. the media should encourage the public and governments to support these policies.

(cover image source: pixabay)