the main indicators of the real estate market continue to show a marginal narrowing, and real estate companies may launch more preferential activities in the "golden september and silver october"
2024-09-14
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china national radio beijing, september 14 (reporter men tingting) on september 14, the national bureau of statistics released major data in the real estate sector. from the published data, under the influence of a series of policy measures, some indicators showed a marginal narrowing. from january to august, real estate development investment fell by 10.2%, the same decline as from january to july; commercial housing sales area fell by 18%, the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points; commercial housing sales fell by 23.6%, the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points; the area of new housing construction fell by 22.5%, the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points.
liu aihua, spokesperson, chief economist and director of the national bureau of statistics' comprehensive statistics department, said that judging from these changes, the current real estate market continues to be in the process of adjustment. from the perspective of future development, china's urbanization process is continuing to advance, and the new model of real estate development is accelerating. the real estate market still has great potential and space. we must continue to adhere to the city-specific policy, accelerate the implementation of various policies, and promote the gradual realization of stable and healthy development of the real estate market, so as to better meet the housing needs of the people.
the policy is expected to continue to maintain a loose trend, and the year-on-year decline in new home sales nationwide is expected to continue to narrow.
in august, the ministry of housing and urban-rural development stated at a series of press conferences on "promoting high-quality development" that the next step is to "take the people's housing as the starting point, systematically carry out the construction of 'four good' housing, good residential areas, good communities, and good urban areas, and create livable, resilient, and smart cities." in addition, it also mentioned "studying the establishment of housing physical examination, housing pension, and housing insurance systems, and building a long-term mechanism for housing safety management throughout the life cycle."
judging from the data, at the national level, the weakening effect of high base continues, and the cumulative year-on-year decline in sales volume and sales area of newly built commercial housing from january to august has narrowed for three consecutive months.
at the same time, all regions continued to actively optimize housing policies. chengdu and changsha clearly recognized the first home by district. guangzhou, kunming, tangshan and other cities optimized provident fund policies. shanghai optimized the standard supply ratio of building area of small and medium-sized housing units in newly allocated commercial housing land, adjusted land auction rules, and implemented the policy orientation of building "good houses".
in terms of the performance of key cities, according to monitoring by the china index academy, in august, the effect of supporting policies weakened, coupled with the impact of high temperature weather, the transaction volume of new houses in cities such as suzhou, wuxi, chongqing, and chengdu continued to decline, and the year-on-year decline widened. the market is still facing great adjustment pressure; second-hand housing continued the trend of "trading price for volume", and the transaction volume fell month-on-month, but still increased year-on-year under the low base. the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing in beijing and shanghai was about 10%, and the month-on-month decline in hangzhou, nanjing, and shenzhen was about 20%.
"policies are expected to continue to maintain a loose trend." xu yuejin, deputy director of research at china index academy, said that on the demand side, relaxing restrictive policies in core cities is still an important direction of optimization, and there is still room for further adjustment in various regions such as lowering mortgage interest rates and reducing transaction taxes and fees; at the same time, in terms of destocking, the ministry of housing and urban-rural development also pointed out that "actively promote the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, and promote the accelerated acquisition of projects where conditions are ripe, and timely allocate rental and sales." the storage work in various regions is expected to be accelerated, driving market recovery.
"next, with further policy easing and the weakening impact of the high base in the second half of the year, the year-on-year decline in national new home sales is expected to continue to narrow," said xu yuejin.
local governments may introduce more policy measures to increase buyers' willingness to buy and promote sales growth
in terms of housing prices, in august, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. among them, beijing, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 0.5%, 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, and shanghai rose by 0.6%. the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 0.7% and 0.8% month-on-month respectively, and the decline widened by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
in terms of second-hand housing, in august, the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, of which beijing, shanghai, guangzhou and shenzhen fell by 1.0%, 0.6%, 0.7% and 1.3% respectively. the sales price of second-hand housing in second- and third-tier cities fell by 1.0% and 0.9% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous month respectively.
zhang bo, director of 58 anjuke research institute, said that at present, the downward trend of housing prices in august has expanded, and the number of cities with rising prices for first- and second-hand houses has decreased. the overall market supply of new houses has continued to decrease, but due to the wait-and-see attitude of home buyers, market demand is still not boosted. second-hand houses have obviously traded price for volume. while housing prices are falling, they perform better in terms of transaction volume than new houses.
entering september, it is the traditional peak season of "golden september and silver october". industry insiders generally believe that real estate companies will continue to increase their efforts this year to launch more new housing sources and preferential activities to attract home buyers. in addition, local governments may introduce more policy measures during this period, such as housing subsidies, tax reductions, etc., to stimulate housing demand. the introduction of these policies will help increase home buyers' willingness to buy, thereby promoting sales growth.
in general, xu yuejin said that the market is entering the traditional peak season of "golden september and silver october", and the activity of the new housing market in core cities may pick up slightly. under the "price-for-volume" policy, the second-hand housing market in key cities is still expected to maintain a certain level of activity.
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