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【text/liao ke, columnist of observer.com】

two years ago, marcos jr. swept more than 58% of the votes in the philippines and was elected as the new president. at that time, people had high expectations for him, hoping that he could bring a different philippines, a philippines where the grassroots people could live a happy life.

however, two years later, many former supporters felt that they had been abandoned, and that marcos jr.'s promises had been thrown out of the window. what followed was his own grand narrative, an attempt to create a philippine era that belonged to him alone.

voters hungry for rice

near the port of manila, which supports the lifeline of the philippines, high-rise buildings that are waiting to be renovated are rising from the ground, overlooking the trucks loaded with containers coming and going. whether it is the high-rise buildings that have sprung up like bamboo shoots after a rain, or the busy trucks, they cannot avoid one place - the slums with shanties and alleys.

trucks carrying containers have to pass through this narrow, two-lane slum neighborhood to get to the port, causing frequent traffic jams.

if you take a closer look, you will find that the houses in the slums are built with discarded building materials picked up from all over the place (mostly discarded wood). they are usually two stories high, have no water supply, and people have to connect their own electricity.

in the sweltering july, there was an indescribable smell and residents had to take at least five showers a day to prevent themselves from getting a heat stroke. children ran on the road with trucks without adult supervision, walking between tires that were taller than them.

it was in such slums that i met many people who had supported marcos jr. some of them were manual laborers at the docks, some were hired to peel garlic for restaurants, and some were self-employed people who started street food stalls targeting people living in the slums.

these people are undoubtedly representatives of the lower classes in the philippines, and their enthusiasm for politics is very high. most of them said that they participated in the 2022 presidential election and voted for marcos jr. without hesitation because "he promised to make rice cheaper" - that year, the voter turnout in the philippines was as high as 83%.

the philippines is a country where rice is the staple food. many people are used to eating a large amount of white rice even for breakfast. as of the time of writing, the average price of rice in the philippines is about 51.14 pesos per kilogram (about 6.48 yuan), while two years ago the price of rice was only about 35 pesos (about 4.43 yuan). at that time, marcos jr. promised the public that he would reduce the price of rice to 20 pesos (about 2.53 yuan), which gave many poor people hope for life, but now it has become a source of disappointment for them.

although the latest data from the philippine government shows that the number of people living in absolute poverty in the philippines has been declining year after year, accounting for 15.5% of the total society last year; however, a public opinion poll by domestic media in the philippines showed that 51% of people still consider themselves to be among the poor in society.

the rise and fall of rice prices is not an important issue for the middle and wealthy classes, but it is a matter of life and death for the poor. the poor chose to believe in marcos's promises and were determined to push him to the top; however, two years later, their lives have not changed at all, and buying rice is still a problem, or even a more difficult problem.

under the banner of "democracy", family politics is being promoted

manila bay is known as the most beautiful sunset spot in southeast asia, but now when you go to manila bay, you can only see sand hills that block the view of the sunset.

it is said that a world-tall skyscraper that is as tall as dubai will be built here. in the vicinity of manila bay, luxurious office buildings are everywhere, but they are mostly call centers.

the philippines, a country with extremely backward primary and secondary industries, has escaped the ranks of extremely poor countries by relying on the service industry - because filipinos are familiar with english and labor is cheap, many world-class companies have set up their own telephone customer service centers here.

what i find extremely incredible is that even walking on the roads in this area requires a permit. in other words, the main roads are all private plots of land owned by the chaebol groups, there is no concept of so-called "highways", and the poorest people are not even qualified to walk here.

this is enough to reflect a major characteristic of the philippines as a country: the chaebols control everything and there is a clear class differentiation.

there are currently nine well-known political chaebol groups in the philippines, and their wealth accounts for more than 30% of the country's total social economy. the uneven distribution of market resources and the inability to build a social welfare system have caused the philippines to maintain what scholars call a "super-unequal society" since its independence, with the poor and the middle class and above being hostile to each other and not caring about each other, and the society is as loose as a pile of loose sand.

in fact, there have been attempts to solve this social problem in philippine history.

marcos' father, marcos sr., was once the "dictator" of the philippines, ruling from 1965 to 1986. at one time, he had a great ambition, which was to break the control of the plutocracy over the philippines.

the philippines is a country that gained independence from a colony. after world war ii, similar to japan, its economy took off first thanks to the us sending troops all over asia. however, in the 1960s, it began to enter a period of stagnant growth due to the problem of chaebols. after marcos came to power, he used various means to concentrate political power, eradicated many chaebol forces, and significantly improved the philippine economy during his first term.

but the good times did not last long. after eliminating the chaebols, he supported his own family's cronies, eventually forming a new chaebol force, the marcos family. he used his power to engage in dictatorial politics, triggering massive opposition from other chaebol forces, including the marcos family's arch-enemy, the aquino family.

in 1983, after being excluded by marcos for a long time, ninoy aquino got the opportunity to end his overseas exile and return to the philippines, aiming for the 1984 parliamentary election. unfortunately, he was shot and killed as soon as he returned to the philippines. the aquino family quickly pointed the finger at marcos and led the middle class to launch a vigorous protest movement. the marcos family eventually lost the support of the military and fled to hawaii under the protection of the united states.

the aquino family, which regained control of the philippine political arena, accused marcos sr. of plundering the people's wealth during his time in power. since then, the marcos family has been regarded as traitors by philippine society for more than 30 years.

however, the aquino family, which advocated the dissolution of the chaebols, has not been able to solve the chaebol problem in the more than 30 years since it came to power. the philippine economy has been ridiculed by the outside world as the "sick man of southeast asia." the grassroots people are really tired of these empty words, which led to duterte's rise to power, which also gave the "dictator's son" marcos jr. the possibility of fighting back.

from "inheritor of history" to "compiler of history"

in downtown manila, i met kiko aquino, a grandson of ninoy aquino, who is now a rising political star in the aquino family. he told me that his biggest political goal at the moment is to protect the historical heritage of his ancestors.

on august 21, the anniversary of ninoy aquino's assassination, he attended the inauguration ceremony of a museum commemorating his grandfather and stressed that no history would be allowed to be tampered with.

such an emphasis means that the history of the philippines is being revised or is in danger of being revised.

in the election two years ago, marcos jr. declared that he would inherit duterte's line, adopt a diplomatic line independent of china and the united states, and continue to speak for the poor.

at that time, duterte was criticized by the middle class and overseas for his severe crackdown on drugs, and lost the support of the united states for his diplomatic preference for china. however, the policies and measures he implemented took care of the interests of the poorest classes in the philippines, so duterte was widely loved by the poor. marcos made a promise, and with duterte's support at the time, he successfully took over the votes of duterte's supporters.

however, after coming to power, marcos jr. not only failed to fulfill his promises, but now he has even turned against duterte. the strategy adopted by marcos jr., who is gradually losing support, is to change the so-called neutral diplomatic strategy, completely leaning towards the united states, and hyping up the china issue. not only the south china sea issue, he also emphasized that "the philippines is the philippines of the filipinos", exaggerated the crimes committed by the chinese in the philippines, incited the people's hatred of china, and thus consolidated his support rate.

in the philippines, i interviewed many middle-class and poor people, and almost all of them expressed their disgust for the chinese in the philippines. the middle class believed that the chinese brought problems such as fraud and corruption, while the poor felt that the chinese took away their jobs. from this point of view, populism has not changed since the dictatorship of marcos sr. what has changed is the direction of populism after different tycoon forces have reached the top of politics.

now, marcos jr. is enthusiastically compiling his own history. on the one hand, he is trying to erase the shame inflicted on his family by the aquino family and widely revise the historical memory of the marcos sr. era. on the other hand, he is shaping himself into a powerful leader of the new generation of the philippines - one who is brave enough to resist china and strike hard against chinese crimes.

continue to wait blindly...

back in 2024, when i asked people in the slums, "why do you support marcos jr?", many people answered, "because marcos jr. promised to make rice cheaper, and his father, marcos sr., did fulfill his campaign promise when he was in power and made rice cheaper. we are still waiting for the day when marcos jr. fulfills his promise."

during his years in office, marcos borrowed a large amount of foreign debt from western countries, led by the united states, most of which flowed into his own pocket, and a small part was used as a favor to give to the poor, so that many people still remember his kindness to this day. however, it was also his behavior of borrowing money from others to solve his own problems that caused the philippines to fall into a huge fiscal deficit crisis, and the huge foreign debt once crushed the philippine economy.

however, the lower-class people in the philippines do not understand this, or do not want to understand it. they only care about whether their rice can be cheaper.

it seems that marcos jr. has learned a lot of wisdom about being a politician from his father.

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