security forces surrounded the argentine embassy. venezuela's domestic political disputes have spilled over into regional issues.
2024-09-13
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since last weekend, venezuela's politics and diplomacy have been in turmoil again. last saturday (september 7), the venezuelan ministry of foreign affairs announced the revocation of brazil's representation rights in the argentine embassy in venezuela, targeting six venezuelan opposition members who sought asylum in the embassy. the latter said that venezuelan security forces had gathered outside the embassy and the power supply had been cut off inside the embassy. the latest action of the venezuelan government has undoubtedly further escalated its diplomatic conflict with argentina and brazil.
the diplomatic dispute between venezuela and latin american countries was directly triggered by the asylum issue of the venezuelan opposition. in fact, it is still the collateral effect of the controversy over the venezuelan presidential election more than a month ago. it involves not only domestic political turmoil, but also disputes over the operation of the political system and national sovereignty and security, involving multiple internal and external issues. venezuela needs both domestic political and social stability and the diplomatic environment of latin america. how to deal with the urgent task is undoubtedly a big test for all parties.
the dispute between the opposition and the asylum committee intensifies the diplomatic conflict among three latin american countries
on september 7, two news reports about the asylum of opposition figures in venezuela were exposed. first, the venezuelan ministry of foreign affairs issued a communiqué to revoke brazil's representation rights to the argentine embassy in venezuela, on the grounds that there was evidence that venezuelan opposition members who were receiving asylum in the embassy "planned to assassinate the president and vice president of venezuela and other terrorist activities." immediately afterwards, the opposition camp issued news that venezuelan security forces gathered and "surrounded" the argentine embassy, and the power supply in the embassy was cut off.
on the same day, venezuelan vice president delcy rodriguez confirmed on social media that edmundo gonzalez, the candidate of the opposition alliance "democratic unity alliance" who participated in the venezuelan presidential election at the end of july, had left venezuela and went to spain to seek "political asylum". previously, the venezuelan government had provided him with a pass to "ensure national political peace and stability". at around 4 pm local time on september 8, the gonzalez couple arrived at the torrejón de ardoz air force base in madrid, spain on a spanish military plane.
the two news stories that happened last saturday are the latest in a series of political fluctuations in venezuela following the presidential election.venezuelan government and opposition, which is enough to show that the two are not isolated from each other, and that the developments are ongoing, with potential destabilizing factors.the venezuelan government's actions against the argentine embassy in venezuela obviously have more serious direct consequences.
long before the venezuelan presidential election this year, relations between venezuela and argentina had already begun to deteriorate, with the key time point being the official inauguration of right-wing populist mille as argentine president in december last year. in the face of extreme opposition on the political spectrum, the two governments had already publicly torn their faces apart. when mille won the election but had not yet taken office, venezuela's left-wing president maduro did not follow diplomatic conventions to call to congratulate him. instead, based on anti-american logic, he criticized mille as a "neo-nazi extreme right wing" and "an absolute colonial project that kneels to american imperialism," and warned the argentines: "you have made your choice, but we will not remain silent."
in turn, milley, following his inherent logic, criticized maduro's "dictatorship."however, after milley softened his stance and eased relations with left-wing government countries in latin america, venezuela and argentina moved from "verbal attacks" to substantive diplomatic frictions.on february 12 this year, argentina allowed a boeing 747 aircraft of venezuelan united airlines that was seized at ezeiza international airport to be handed over to the united states, which was denounced by the venezuelan government as "robbery". in countermeasure, a month later, the venezuelan government announced a ban on argentine aircraft from using its airspace.
as the venezuelan presidential election heated up, milley announced in late march that the argentine embassy in venezuela had provided asylum to six members of the venezuelan opposition, while the venezuelan prosecutors accused these people of treason and rebellion. after the venezuelan presidential election ended on july 28, when most latin american countries did not recognize or had reservations about the election results, the argentine government went a step further and became one of the four latin american governments to publicly recognize gonzalez's victory.
to this end, on july 29, the venezuelan ministry of foreign affairs announced the severance of diplomatic relations with argentina, chile, costa rica, panama, peru, the dominican republic and uruguay, recalled diplomats from these seven countries and demanded that their diplomats withdraw from venezuela. in early august, brazil became the representative of argentina and peru's interests in venezuela, responsible for the safekeeping of the assets and archives of the two countries' embassies in venezuela, which means that the argentine embassy in venezuela is actually "managed" by brazil.
according to article 45 of the 1961 vienna convention on diplomatic relations, in the event of the severance of diplomatic relations between two countries or the withdrawal of the embassy, the receiving state (venezuela in this case) shall respect and protect the embassy buildings, property and archives of the sending state (argentina), and the sending state may, with the consent of the receiving state, entrust the embassy buildings, property and archives to a third country (brazil) for safekeeping, and the third country shall protect the interests of the sending state and its nationals in the receiving state.brazil's "hosting" of the argentine embassy in venezuela is a routine arrangement based on this international convention.
however, only one month later, the venezuelan government suddenly and unilaterally revoked brazil's representation rights to the argentine embassy in venezuela, depriving it of its custodial power, which surprised the brazilian side. however, judging from the time logic, the argentine government may not be so surprised: before venezuela took this latest action,the argentine ministry of foreign affairs issued a statement on friday evening (september 6) that it will send a letter to the international criminal court (icc) on september 9, asking the latter to issue an arrest warrant for maduro and other senior venezuelan government officials.the reason is the venezuelan government’s “crimes against humanity” after the presidential election.
in this case, venezuela's actions are not difficult to understand. the venezuelan government took the above action on the grounds that "opposition members sheltered in the embassy planned terrorist activities", but did not provide any evidence to brazil. the brazilian government immediately issued a statement, emphasizing that the argentine embassy abroad is protected by the vienna convention on diplomatic relations and cannot be violated. it stated that before other governments obtain authorization and take over, the brazilian government will continue to represent argentina's interests in venezuela and will never hand over power.
at the same time, the brazilian government specifically pointed out that "international law prohibits local law enforcement agencies from entering diplomatic missions without permission," which is obviously a message to the venezuelan opposition inside the embassy. according to messages posted on social media by two opposition members (both assistants to opposition leader maria corina machado), masked venezuelan security forces gathered and surrounded the argentine embassy, traffic lights on nearby streets were turned off, and the embassy has been without power since last friday night.
a brazilian diplomat also confirmed the news that "troops are stationed outside the argentine embassy" and said that the brazilian government is closely monitoring the situation. at this time, the venezuelan and argentine governments have completely torn their faces apart, but brazil, which is also a left-wing government, has not yet completely "turned the table" with venezuela. it just said that it would wait for the details of the vote count in each constituency of the venezuelan presidential election and investigate the outside world's suspicion of election fraud. before that, it would not recognize maduro's victory.
under the circumstance that the basic diplomatic relations between venezuela and brazil can still be maintained, whether it is necessary to continue to intensify the conflict and lead to venezuela being completely isolated by the largest country in latin america is the latest test for the governments of the parties concerned. in this sense, the incident of venezuela revoking brazil's representation rights and surrounding the argentine embassy is undoubtedly worthy of attention.
the presidential election is controversial, and venezuela's internal and external turmoil continues
compared with the six opposition members in the argentine embassy in venezuela, the most popular "heavyweight" opposition figures in venezuela are undoubtedly the real leader of the camp, maria machado, and gonzalez, who participated in this year's presidential election. after machado was disqualified from running for election, gonzalez was nominated as a presidential candidate and became the public figure of the opposition's "ending maduro's rule", and naturally became the focus of attention from all parties.
after the venezuelan national electoral commission announced maduro's victory (officially announcing 51.2% of the votes), machado and gonzalez refused to admit it, claiming that maduro had cheated and gonzalez had won nearly 70% of the votes. they also called for and launched multiple rounds of street protests after the election. on august 5, venezuela's attorney general tarek william saab announced the launch of a criminal investigation into the two for "falsely announcing the winner of the presidential election."
during this period, machado published an open letter in the wall street journal, announcing that he had chosen to hide. gonzalez was summoned three times by the venezuelan procuratorate, but he ignored it. on september 2, the venezuelan judicial authorities officially issued an arrest warrant for gonzalez, accusing him of "usurping office, forging public documents, inciting illegal activities, conspiracy, and organizing crime." in order to avoid judicial pursuit, gonzalez went to the dutch and spanish embassies in venezuela to "take refuge" and requested "political asylum."
last sunday (september 8), spanish foreign minister josé manuel alvarez made it clear that spain would "undoubtedly" provide asylum to gonzalez, revealing that the latter's trip to spain had been planned for several days. the day before, spanish prime minister sanchez had spoken at a meeting of the ruling socialist workers' party, saying that gonzalez was "a hero that spain will not abandon."
reuters learned that spanish government officials (including former spanish prime minister zapatero, who was involved in coordinating venezuelan affairs) negotiated with the venezuelan government for a week, which eventually led to gonzalez being allowed to leave the country. as gonzalez left venezuela, the venezuelan prosecutor's office announced that the criminal investigation against gonzalez would be "closed."
after arriving in spain, gonzalez released the latest voice message through his news team, expressing his attitude of "continue to fight". since he is already overseas, gonzalez's influence on venezuelan politics (or threat to maduro) may be weakened in the future, but similar to the "siege" of the argentine embassy on the same day, as a chain reaction of the presidential election, this incident directly affects venezuela's diplomatic situation in latin america.
on the day gonzalez arrived in spain, the chilean government, also a left-wing government, once again took the lead in attacking the maduro government, expressing "regret" for gonzalez's "forced exile" and "refusing to accept the persecution, harassment and political violence against gonzalez". it also publicly condemned venezuela's "any form of suppression of the opposition". a few hours later, the paraguayan government followed up and reiterated its "commitment to the venezuelan people".
it can be seen from this thatthe controversy over this year's venezuelan presidential election, especially the new round of struggle between the maduro government and the opposition, is objectively putting the country at risk of "diplomatic isolation" from countries in latin america.
i have previously written about how, after the venezuelan presidential election, except for bolivia, cuba, nicaragua, and honduras, most latin american governments did not recognize the official results of venezuela, including left-wing governments in brazil, chile, mexico, and colombia, and right-wing governments in argentina, el salvador, panama, and paraguay. what's more, chilean president boric, who was once regarded as a "fellow traveler" on maduro's political spectrum, made several unkind remarks. this also explains why the venezuelan government cut off diplomatic relations with seven latin american countries, which account for more than half of the region.
if there is any difference between the attitudes of these latin american countries in not recognizing the election, it is that argentina, costa rica, ecuador and peru are more radical and directly recognize gonzalez's victory, while the "non-recognition" of most latin american countries is mainly based on the "lack of transparency of the election results", that is, the venezuelan authorities have not yet announced the details of the presidential election vote count. therefore, these countries cannot be convinced by the official results. before the venezuelan side announces the details of the vote count, they neither recognize maduro's victory nor automatically regard gonzalez as the "president-elect."
it should be said that most latin american countries do not intend to completely isolate and blockade venezuela, butthe venezuelan government does need to take truly effective measures to press the "stop button" on the trend of further deterioration of its internal and external situations, especially the direction of the domestic crisis, which directly affects the attitudes of neighboring countries towards it.after the presidential election, the opposition and the public launched rounds of street protests, which led to serious bloody clashes on many occasions. the venezuelan government said it had arrested about 2,700 people.
under the current circumstances, how the attitudes of latin american governments towards venezuela will change depends largely on whether the venezuelan government can properly handle the domestic political turmoil. not to mention, the "chaos" or "order" of venezuelan politics and society affects more than just the country's official diplomatic relations with latin american countries.
in the past 10 years, venezuela's gdp has shrunk by 80%, and political turmoil has continued. according to estimates by the united nations high commissioner for refugees, about 7.7 million venezuelans (one-third of the country's population) have left the country from 2014 to the end of 2023. many of them chose to stay in neighboring latin american countries in the same cultural circle, such as argentina, brazil, chile, ecuador, mexico, and peru.this has brought considerable population pressure to the countries in the region.it was even described by the latter as the venezuelan "refugee crisis."
currently, due to a new round of political turmoil in venezuela, one quarter to one third of venezuelans are considering emigrating, and the countries in latin america are naturally the first to bear the brunt. venezuela and other countries in the region are part of latin america, and it can be said that "prosperity and loss are shared by all". if any country encounters turmoil or even crisis, other countries will inevitably be affected. in this sense, what venezuela needs to solve is not one or two specific events or a crisis, but how to respond to domestic and regional demands and fundamentally restore stability and development.
today, this is a test not only for the venezuelan government and various domestic factions, but also for the wisdom of all countries in latin america.
(hu yukun, international political columnist and member of the translators association of china)
hu yukun, special correspondent for the paper
(this article is from the paper. for more original information, please download the "the paper" app)
