the battle for japan's prime minister has become a "nine dragons fighting for the throne" situation. who has a better chance of winning?
2024-09-13
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yu hailong, assistant researcher, institute of international strategy, party school of the cpc central committee (national school of administration)
on september 27, japan's ruling liberal democratic party will hold a presidential election. the liberal democratic party is the largest political party in japan's house of representatives and the house of councillors. its winner will serve as the prime minister of the japanese government. therefore, this election is also an election for the prime minister. influenced by factors such as fumio kishida's withdrawal from the election, the "black gold scandal", and the dissolution of factions, this liberal democratic party presidential election has set many historical records, including the largest number of candidates and the longest election duration. at present, shigeru ishiba, shinjiro koizumi, taro kono, sanae takaichi, katsunobu kato, yoshimasa hayashi, toshimitsu motegi, takayuki kobayashi, and yoko kamikawa have announced their candidacy for the presidency of the liberal democratic party. this "battle for the prime minister" has dramatically fallen into a "nine dragons fighting for the throne" situation. who has a better chance of winning? the policy propositions of the nine candidates have both commonalities and individualities.
shigeru ishiba has run for the presidency of the liberal democratic party many times, and he has a high voice in this presidential election. he has served as the secretary-general of the liberal democratic party, the chairman of the liberal democratic party's policy research council, the minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries of the cabinet, and the minister of defense of the cabinet. he was also the leader of the faction "sugetsukai" and visited taiwan many times. shigeru ishiba advocated reforming the liberal democratic party and establishing a "ministry of disaster prevention". he had a relatively positive evaluation of the tokyo trial, opposed politicians visiting the yasukuni shrine, advocated "separate worship" of class a war criminals, advocated amending or reinterpreting the peace constitution, creating an asia-pacific collective security guarantee system, strengthening the capabilities of the self-defense forces, relaxing the standards for the use of weapons, improving the effectiveness of the japan-us alliance, and advocating respect for human rights and democracy. he advocated that japan transform into a domestic demand-driven economy, achieve a virtuous cycle of raising wages and alleviating population shortages, and protect the opportunities of young people and women. however, shigeru ishiba has long been in a marginal position in the liberal democratic party, lacks the support of powerful politicians, and has a dark history of "leaving the party". these factors were one of the reasons why he lost to former japanese prime minister shinzo abe in the 2012 ldp presidential election.
shinjiro koizumi is the second son of former prime minister junichiro koizumi. he once served as the minister of environment in the cabinet. his popularity in the ldp presidential election is comparable to that of shigeru ishiba, especially among young groups and ldp young members of parliament. shinjiro koizumi has visited the yasukuni shrine many times and advocated amending the peace constitution, writing the self-defense forces into the constitution, adding emergency clauses and defense budgets, raising taxes, reducing dependence on nuclear energy, implementing parliamentary reforms and ldp reforms, supporting new industries, promoting the transition of the economy from deflation to growth, promoting digitalization, and supporting different surnames for couples and same-sex marriage. however, shinjiro koizumi has little experience in the ldp, has no experience in holding core positions in the ldp, and has not been a member of any faction before. and because of kobayashi takayuki's candidacy, his supporters are bound to be dispersed.
taro kono is the son of former house of representatives speaker yohei kono. he is currently the minister of digital in the kishida government. he has previously served as minister of foreign affairs, minister of defense, and chairman of the national public safety commission. he is currently the only member of the "aso faction" in the liberal democratic party and has a strong influence among local members of the liberal democratic party. when running for the presidency of the liberal democratic party in 2021, taro kono won more than half of the 169 votes of party members. he advocated amending the peace constitution, writing the self-defense forces into the constitution, strengthening the capacity building of the self-defense forces, improving the ability of the parliament and the cabinet to respond to emergencies, strengthening cooperation with countries with common values, strengthening deterrence against neighboring countries such as china, seeking to lead the reform of the un security council, rectifying the investment environment, developing sustainable agriculture, forestry and fishery industries, and comprehensively promoting digital construction. however, taro kono failed to obtain the support of all members of the "aso faction". taro aso allowed members of the faction to support other candidates. in addition, taro kono has a strong personality, and there are many opposing forces in the liberal democratic party.
sanae takaichi is highly regarded among japanese women. she is currently the minister of economic security in the kishida government. she has served as minister of general affairs and the chairman of the policy research council of the liberal democratic party. she has a clear conservative tendency and has visited the yasukuni shrine many times. in the 2021 liberal democratic party presidential election, sanae takaichi received strong support from former prime minister shinzo abe. after the dissolution of the abe faction, some conservative forces gathered around sanae takaichi. sanae takaichi advocated the reorganization of the provincial and ministerial structure, the revision of the peace constitution, the abolition of clauses such as "abandoning war", the change of "self-defense forces" to "national defense forces" and its inclusion in the constitution, the increase of defense spending, the strengthening of defense capabilities, the strengthening of cooperation with the united states and like-minded countries, the construction of a new national defense system, and the pressure on china on human rights, taiwan and other issues. she also denied the murayama and kono talks, insisted on visiting the yasukuni shrine, advocated a positive fiscal policy, strengthened the economic security strategy, and opposed female emperors, same-sex marriage, and the separation of husband and wife surnames. however, with the death of shinzo abe and the dissolution of the "abe faction", the political forces that firmly support sanae takaichi have weakened. the market for her strong conservative ideas is also relatively limited, and the votes brought by female characters will also be dispersed by yoko kamikawa's candidacy.
as the liberal democratic party factions disbanded one after another, influential politicians wanted to take the opportunity to challenge the prime minister's throne. no matter which candidate wins the election, it is difficult for major powers such as china-japan relations and japan-us relations to undergo major changes. but at the same time, the winner will also face many challenges inside and outside the liberal democratic party, including uniting powerful figures within the liberal democratic party, dealing with the public's distrust of the liberal democratic party due to the former unification church issue and the "black gold scandal", as well as issues such as weak economic growth and continued price increases.
editor: gao peining, jiang xinyu, zhang yanling
