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when it comes to the chinese market, musk has been going all out recently: just as the news of the 7-seater version of model y was revealed, he immediately announced that fsd (full self-driving) will be launched in china in the first quarter of next year.

according to lateauto, tesla plans to deliver two modified model y models next year: one is a renewed version of model y similar to the renewed version of model 3, which is expected to be delivered in the first quarter of next year; the other is a 7-seater version of model y, which is expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of next year.

previously, tesla has launched a 7-seat version of model y in europe and the united states.without changing the length of the vehicle, two seats are added in the back row to form a new 2+3+2 layout. when the third row of seats is not in use, the seats can be folded into the trunk to restore the original 5-seat space layout.

however, considering the chinese users' pursuit of large space, lateauto mentioned in the revelation that,the chinese version of the 7-seater model y may be tesla’s “special edition” model for the chinese market.some foreign media further revealed that tesla will directly launch the 6-seater version of model y in china next year to meet the car purchasing needs of potential chinese car owners as much as possible.

although tesla officials have denied the above news, it has become tesla's tradition to maintain a certain sense of mystery before the official release of the product.musk also specifically named it the "osborne effect".to explain why he didn’t want to reveal relevant information before the new product was released, “it would affect our recent sales.”

the osborne effect refers to when a company announces a new product or service too early and fails to deliver it on time, which leads to a drop in demand for existing products, which may eventually cause the company's revenue to dry up and even cause it to go bankrupt.

as tesla's core products, the demand for model 3/model y has been declining significantly. in the first half of this year, tesla's total sales volume was about 830,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 7%. the launch of the 7-seat model y will undoubtedly help tesla attract more potential dad car owners.

at the first launch of ideal one in october 2018, li xiang talked in detail about the logic behind the company and its products. “the car i want to build must be one that my friends are willing to buy, and one that can take my family to wherever they want to go. this is also the definition of chj (the predecessor of ideal auto)”. in the early stages, those who will pay for ideal auto are definitely not first-time car buyers. li xiang is targeting “urban families with two children who have a certain level of economic ability”.

a more accurate portrait of these people is china's 200 million middle class, who have a stronger willingness to pay and a more urgent demand for large spaces with 6/7 seats.

the large-space "daddy car" market, which was popularized by ideal with its 6-seater model, attracted almost all car companies to enter the market in the following few years.

now, tesla is expected to become a new member of this camp.

01

the fierce competition in the chinese auto market requires automakers to find the right target group and offer a sufficiently attractive price. even musk is somewhat overwhelmed by this aspect. "competitors have significantly reduced the price of electric vehicles, which has brought some difficulties to tesla." musk said at the second quarter earnings conference this year.

tesla's response is, on the one hand, to launch a more affordable model in the first half of next year, the model 2, which is rumored to be priced at $25,000, and on the other hand to optimize manufacturing costs.

in the second quarter, tesla's self-developed battery 4680 deliveries increased by 51% month-on-month. more importantly, the first verified version of cybertruck using dry electrode technology has been manufactured on mass production equipment. according to official statements, tesla is expected to mass-produce 4680 batteries using dry electrode technology in the fourth quarter of this year, making the battery cost much lower than available alternatives.

when tesla released its self-developed battery 4680 plan in 2020, its initial goal was to reduce battery costs by 50% with the help of new technologies. the key to cost reduction lies in the dry electrode process.

before the 4680 battery, tesla’s last typical example of manufacturing cost optimization was the integrated die-casting technology that was first launched on the model y in 2019.if the 4680 battery using dry electrode technology goes into production as scheduled in the fourth quarter, it means that the 7-seat model y will not only find a new target audience, but may also bring a more cost-effective price.

in addition to the cheap models and the 7-seater version of model y, 2025 will be a big year for product updates for tesla.the new generation supercar model roadster has also completed most of the engineering design work and is expected to go into production next year. of course, it also includes the robotaxi model that musk often talks about.

at tesla's annual shareholders meeting in 2024, musk previewed three new tesla models. "we are secretly developing some new models, and i think they will be very special. people may find some of these products unsurprising at first, but wait, there will definitely be (surprises)."

in the preview image released at that time, in addition to the existing model s, model x, model 3, model y, cybertruck, and semi (electric semi-trailer truck), there were three mysterious new cars that were covered.

02

these modified new cars have become bargaining chips in musk's hands to attack his competitors.

in particularonce the 7-seater version of model y becomes a reality, it will be like a sharp weapon inserted into the vital point of the current new forces.as the top two new forces in sales, ideal and huawei have a majority of car-buying groups comprised of family users who pursue large spaces. tesla is now eyeing the wallets of this group of middle-aged people.

even,with the launch of the 7-seater version of model y, tesla has also taken over ideal's pure electric products that focus on large space.

according to the original plan, by the end of 2024, ideal will have eight new models on the market, including four extended-range electric vehicles and four pure electric vehicles, including one mpv and three suvs, and has set a radical annual sales target of 800,000 vehicles.

however, with the poor sales of the first pure electric model mega, the pure electric suv originally planned to be released this year was postponed by li xiang to the first half of next year, and the annual sales target was also lowered to 560,000 to 640,000 vehicles.

at the second quarter earnings conference, the issue of pure electric suv planning was discussed again. li xiang said that the company needs to solve two problems next: one is the product design, and the other is to be able to provide users with more than 2,000 super charging stations when pure electric products are delivered.

the above lessons can be learned thanks to li xiang, who followed musk's lead and was tripped by the sudden public opinion about mega in march.

both became popular with their unique shapes and received more orders than expected before delivery. however, cybertruck's popularity persisted until the post-delivery stage, while mega was met with a cold reception upon delivery.

when the car was first launched, li xiang set a goal for mega, which was to "become the best-selling passenger car of all models above 500,000 yuan, regardless of the energy source or the body type". according to this calculation, the average monthly sales of ideal mega needs to surpass the sales champion of this price range, which is the bmw x5 with a monthly sales of 8,000 units.

the reality is that since the launch on march 1, the potential user base of ideal mega has shown a trend of large-scale cancellations. according to sun shaojun, the founder of chefans, less than 5,000 ideal megas were ordered 72 hours after the launch.

after setting a new record of 50,000 monthly deliveries in december last year, li xiang optimistically predicted that this growth momentum will continue in 2024. combined with the news that the first pure electric model mega will be delivered in march, li xiang estimated that ideal's delivery volume in march will exceed the target of 50,000 vehicles again. the reality is that ideal sold 29,000 vehicles in march.

as early as in the article "what made li xiang pay the price was the musk in his heart", alphabet list (id: wujicaijing) pointed out that the starkly different performances of mega and cybertruck undoubtedly revealed a cruel reality that li xiang and a number of chinese car companies need to face: if they want to successfully shift from pleasing users to educating users, in addition to personalized product design, they may need more technological innovation.

03

but the biggest problem facing the 7-seater model y is precisely the technology. tesla, which has always been known for its technological innovation, has been slow to introduce its fsd, which musk is proud of, to china.

especially after the end-to-end intelligent driving competition started, although tesla became the initiator of this new competition with the launch of fsdv12 version, it has become a ppt player in the chinese market.

huawei released the qiankun ads 3.0 architecture, ideal released a new autonomous driving technology architecture based on end-to-end models, vlm visual language models and world models, nio officially announced its intelligent driving technology architecture nadarch 2.0, officially introducing the end-to-end architecture of the world model, and xiaopeng even shouted the slogan of being the only two in the world and the only one in china to achieve mass production of end-to-end large models.

tesla, which finally couldn't hold back any longer, recently announced its progress through social media, predicting that fsd will be launched in china and europe in the first quarter of 2025, but it still needs regulatory approval.

the outside world’s expectation for fsd has once again been postponed by the official.when musk visited china in april, the media reported that tesla had launched the fsd function in china and obtained preliminary approval from the chinese government. by connecting to baidu's map and navigation services, tesla has cleared a major obstacle to deploying fsd in cars traveling in china.

at the second quarter earnings conference, musk optimistically predicted that tesla fsd would likely be approved in china before the end of the year, making it a new demand driver in these regions.

whether tesla fsd will be launched in china as scheduled in the first quarter of next year is still full of uncertainty.but the only thing that is clear is that musk has always regarded autonomous driving as tesla's biggest differentiator. "we have economies of scale and are the most efficient electric car producer in the world. so, no matter what, while others are pursuing different parts of the ai ​​robotics stack, we are pursuing all parts. this can achieve better cost control, greater scale, faster time to market and better quality products."

all the blueprints and ideas outlined by musk need to be proven in practice.with the introduction of fsd in china, it is not only domestic automakers that need to take the test, but also tesla itself: since the transition to the new energy era, tesla has become the most appealing automaker among new energy vehicle brands by relying on its leading technological innovation advantages. however, as some chinese automakers gradually catch up in electrification capabilities, fsd has become another new weapon for tesla to maintain its brand purchasing power.

if fsd performs worse than expected in the same test after it is launched in china, tesla's sales in china may be further affected; on the contrary, if fsd is verified to be ahead of its domestic counterparts, the chinese market is likely to once again become the engine driving tesla's development.

it is worth mentioning that musk is still promoting the external licensing of fsd, and said that several large oem manufacturers are interested in obtaining licensing, and speculated that "there will be more such companies over time."

once fsd is officially launched in china, along with the impact of the 7-seat model y, there will also be a lot of fsd authorization turmoil.