summer exam: we need good movies
2024-09-07
한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina
◎eight bowls
the time has come to september 1, 2024, the first day of september, and also the last day of the 2024 summer movie season. looking at the box office performance of this year's summer movie season, the results are not ideal.
judging from the data, the 2023 summer movie season can be described as "a leader in the industry". a number of new films plus the backlog of blockbusters "rushed" to the theaters, and the movie box office soared to 20.6 billion, basically accounting for 2/5 of the total movie box office in 2023. the released movies are not only of high quality and constantly talked about, but also have continuously set new box office records, even making film practitioners sigh that the "industry is rejuvenated" and full of expectations for the future.
this year's summer movie box office totaled 11.6 billion yuan, which is almost halved compared to last year. if compared horizontally under normal market conditions, it would be equivalent to going back to the period from 2014 to 2016, when summer movie box office hovered between 9 billion and 12 billion yuan.
why is there such a huge difference in the summer movie seasons in the past two years? where is the future of chinese films and how should practitioners respond?
there are both expected and unexpected things behind the 11.6 billion
this year's summer movie box office results were far below what the film industry and cinema chains had expected. although the film authorities provided timely relief and assistance, playing the strategy of "new and old films, whatever can be released": first, the new "alien" series "alien: reaper" that had never been released in domestic theaters was brought to the screen, and then the "sentiment card" was played, decades ago, old films "the god of cookery" (1996) and "witness for the prosecution" (1957) were used to "save the market". on august 24, even last year's summer box office champion "all or nothing" was released again. but judging from the current box office results, the results are still not satisfactory.
in fact, long before the opening of the summer movie season this year, the film management department had prepared in advance and encouraged major film companies to prepare the "big dishes" as soon as possible and prepare to serve them. "nezha 2", "the legend of the condor heroes", "jiangyuan lane" and other highly anticipated masterpieces were all on the list, but the film production cycle is subject to various objective factors, and the expected "speeding up" was not realized in time.
therefore, the "11.6 billion" locked in the summer movie box office is not a surprising number. the reason why the 2023 summer movie season is so popular is that there are many films that have been backlogged due to the three-year epidemic, and they were finally released in one day. "all or nothing", "fengshen" and "octagonal cage" are actually "historical legacy" movies, which were completed several years ago. after a wave of concentrated firepower, the film market will inevitably face the problem of "lack of stamina", which is also the main reason for the "weakness" of this year's summer movie season-the decline in content productivity and the arrival of the "break" period.
first, there is a "gap" in film production capacity. in 2019, when the film industry was at its peak, china produced 850 feature films a year, and combined with documentaries and other categories, the film output reached 1,037; in 2020, affected by the epidemic, the number of domestic films dropped sharply to only 300; in 2021, the epidemic was effectively controlled, and the number of domestic films produced increased accordingly, recovering to 740; in 2022, the number of films produced failed to steadily recover, but fell back to 650; in 2023, the film industry warmed up again, and the total film output for the whole year reached 971, which is close to the level before the epidemic in terms of production figures.
however, according to the production and distribution rules of the film industry, there will be a time gap of one to two years between the production time and the release time of the film. therefore, most of the films that audiences see this year were produced in 2022, when the epidemic still had a great impact, and the number of films produced was not comparable to that of previous years. the subsequent effect of the reduction in production is naturally a significant reduction in the number of films available for theaters.
but this is not the main reason for the poor box office performance of the summer season. after all, among the more than 600 films, the vast majority of them will not be shown in theaters. the real reason for the "gap" is that the quality of the films does not meet the audience's appetite.
a more intuitive comparison is the number of movies with box office revenue exceeding 100 million yuan: as of now, there are only 30 domestic "100 million yuan movies" in 2024, while there are as many as 50 domestic "100 million yuan movies" in 2023. even in 2021 and 2022, when the epidemic was more serious, there were 43 and 29 domestic "100 million yuan movies" respectively.
when a movie grosses over 100 million yuan, it usually represents relatively outstanding sales and quality. when the production of movies has basically returned to the level before the epidemic, but the number of "100 million yuan movies" has not recovered, but has decreased significantly, that is the problem. it means that the top works of domestic films have begun to fail, and it also means that the profitability of domestic cinema films is further declining.
in today's film market, producing a "watchable" movie requires an investment cost of at least 20 to 30 million yuan, and more than 5 million yuan in publicity and promotion costs. based on the domestic cinema film company's share of slightly more than 1/3, if the movie box office does not exceed 100 million yuan or is close to 100 million yuan, it will be difficult to make a profit.
the “top players” failed and the “new players” were not satisfied either.
in fact, it is not just the summer season. looking at the overall movie box office market this year, we will find a new phenomenon - the "head players" in the film industry have also failed.
the "80/20 rule" is a consistent feature of the film industry. in the past, the top creators often had lower creative risks. even if most practitioners did not make money, the top creators who were talented or lucky could still make a lot of money and achieve success. however, judging from this year's film market, the top creators have also begun to fail.
apart from the standout "catch the doll", "the rise of a familiar man" was criticized by some netizens who may not have even seen the movie, saying that "rich people play poor people and make money from poor people", and the box office was halved compared to the industry's pre-release expectations; chen sicheng boldly tried to mix film genres in "the decryption", but the audience "completely disliked it" in return; "under the alien" was "sprayed" by the fans of the original novel and almost failed to break the 100 million mark; and "safe escape from the 21st century" failed to live up to the "dark horse" expectations before its release; "mr. red carpet" was even more dismal. the publicity and promotion costs were almost not recovered; "legend" starring jackie chan and ai jackie chan suffered an epic flop; "customs front" (starring nicholas tse and jacky cheung) once again proved the weakness of traditional hong kong films in the current mainland film market; han yan's well-received work "let's rock the sun together" finally saved some face after a series of twists and turns such as being withdrawn from the spring festival and re-released; guan hu's "dog array" was also unable to convince the audience with its literary and artistic style despite the blessing of the cannes film festival award. to sum it up with a joke from netizens, "chen sicheng, wuershan, xu zheng, ning hao, guan hu, han yan, tang jili, and herman yau, several big directors, together have made 1 billion box office", which was unimaginable in the previous film market.
the failure of the "head players" does not mean the arrival of film iteration. in fact, most of the "new players" are even worse. the high-scoring work "stop and go" (starring hu ge and gao yuanyuan) by new director long fei barely broke 100 million yuan; the new work "negatives make positive" (starring zhu yilong) by "bad monkey" director wen shipei was controversial and the box office stopped at 70 million yuan; the quality work "laifu hotel" (starring huang xuan) by new director liu bowen was suspected to be dragged down by publicity and promotion; "welcome to me" (starring yu shi) directed by song haolin also "flopped"... these popular stars, these leading actors with strong fan appeal, have not been able to bring better box office results to the "new players".
it is no wonder that some practitioners have joked about this situation: "this year's film and television market is full of people 'plunging' one after another. practitioners are no longer seeking to make money, but only to 'plunge' a little less so that they can shamelessly ask for more money from investors." however, investors are savvy, and being "thick-skinned" will not make them change their minds and continue to "transfuse blood" to the industry. what investors value is always data and expectations.
according to a rough estimate, among the domestic films released this year, no more than 17 are expected to make a profit. this number is particularly eye-catching when put together with the 900 films expected to be produced this year.
the departure of “hot money” triggered a series of chain reactions
perhaps for ordinary people, the cold winter of the epidemic has long passed, but for the film industry, an industry with a "long tail" that has lasted for a long time, the impact is still continuing, and even has caused the industry to fall into a kind of "vicious circle."
due to various factors related to the economic environment and the film and television ecology, the "hot money" that once poured into the film industry has been withdrawn, and the number of film and television companies and practitioners has sharply decreased. the film companies that have been fortunate enough to survive are mostly using their own funds to get through the "cold winter", and only a few lucky ones can still "recover a little blood" by relying on some of their previous backlog projects.
on the one hand, this has led to the further concentration of industry funds and film and television resources towards the top, so that the top creators can continue to create projects; on the other hand, the opportunities and possibilities left for new film and television companies and new creators have been inevitably squeezed further. "starting a business before halfway through will be dead", the film market in 2024 will hit the "top players" with one blow, and the "new players" and young film creators have few opportunities to begin with, and there are basically no successful cases this year, so their future situation and way out are even more worrying. in an instant, making money has become difficult in the film industry.
this situation has created a series of chain reactions in the domestic film industry. because it is difficult to make money, the more limited funds and resources will be tilted towards the top creators and the top projects. the film companies and investors are even more reluctant to use new directors and young actors, and the innovation and sustainable development of the film industry in the future will be more difficult. because the new generation of filmmakers lacks opportunities and trial and error space, when the core creators of the current generation grow old or lose the favor of the market, the domestic film industry is likely to fall into a real "generation gap".
looking back to seven or eight years ago, when the film industry was booming, the film venture capital business that funded young domestic directors was also advancing by leaps and bounds. first youth film festival, "green plan" (cfdg china young director support program), "pingyao venture capital", shanghai film festival venture capital, hainan film festival venture capital, wu tianming foundation venture capital, etc. were all in full swing, and the enthusiasm and voices supporting young creators were getting louder and louder. at that time, young people who participated in venture capital hoped that as long as they had learned how to make movies, had some ideas, and could give a good presentation with ppt, there would be bold film producers to support him/her to try and be a director.
nowadays, various venture capital projects are either taking a break or being suspended, and the enthusiasm of project development employees of major film companies to participate in venture capital activities has basically disappeared. during conversations, they all have a tired attitude of "i haven't been to a venture capital for a long time" - yes, big directors are losing money, so who dares to invest in new directors?
is it safer to invest in entertainment films?
in addition, there is another "coolness" that only the author as a practitioner can feel. that is, the "vertical group news" (indicating that the film is being prepared and set up) of a certain size of theater movies in the circle of friends has rarely been seen recently. in previous years, basically every month there would be a movie of decent size "starting" in the circle of friends, and the group news would circulate in the circle of friends until everyone in the film industry knew about it; but this year, some of the projects of certain size "starting" in the circle of friends, the author racked his brains to think, but he couldn't even get together 5.
this is a worrying phenomenon. on the one hand, most film producers who have the ability to invest in movies will consciously or unconsciously become more cautious after seeing the tragic situation this year, showing a wait-and-see state. they are unwilling to start filming the reserve projects in their hands even if they are put aside. the reason is very simple, "if i don't shoot, i can still survive. if i shoot and release the film, i may really lose money." on the other hand, this also indicates that in the next two years, the "film shortage" of domestic theater movies may not be effectively alleviated.
from the perspective of investors, this wait-and-see attitude seems to continue, and may even become more serious. the "hot money" that flowed into the film industry back then is only flowing out. now, with the rise of various entertainment forms such as micro-dramas, short dramas, medium-length dramas, interactive dramas, and vertical screen dramas, investors have more and more options and types in film and television investment. these emerging film and television investment methods have many advantages such as fast payment cycle, relatively low investment cost, and relatively controllable risk. in comparison, the investment volume of theater movies is large, the cycle is long, and the risk is high, so they are naturally losing their appeal to investors.
perhaps all these arguments are nothing more than complaints from the audience. the audience's comment that "if the movie is not good, i will not watch it" is of course objective and correct, but objective factors such as the squeeze of theater viewing by various entertainment forms, the increasing cost of watching movies, the uneven quality of theater movies, and the severe situation of the film industry are indeed affecting the future possibilities of chinese films.
recently, some people even worry that chinese films may become less unique and less critical in the future, because trying means risk, and the cost of trial and error is high. instead, perhaps those creations that cater to the audience's entertainment habits, a kind of "entertainment fast film" that can provide more direct stimulation, pursue "satisfaction", and pursue "a joke every three minutes". maybe, but everyone who really loves movies hopes that will not happen.
keep the charm of the original film is still irreplaceable
the film industry is getting more and more difficult, but a recent imported film project seems to have rekindled some hope for filmmakers, that is "alien: taken". this film has reversed from the initial industry expectation of 200 million box office to nearly 700 million box office now, which not only proves the market potential of horror movies, but also proves the unique viewing experience of cinemas. especially when watching in imax theaters, the visual and auditory impact and shock of the spaceship breaking through the clouds in the storm and the alien monster rushing straight to the face in the film once again show that the unique experience of watching movies in theaters will not be completely replaced by other forms of mobile entertainment in a short time.
film practitioners are moving forward cautiously. despite many difficulties, they still believe that the future is promising. on august 29, mao yu, executive deputy director of the state film administration, gave a touching speech at the "china film new power forum", pointing out that "we need good-looking movies." yes, in a nutshell, the movie itself must be good-looking in order to attract audiences and capital. therefore, no matter what difficulties filmmakers encounter, they still have to remember that sentence - keep their original intention and keep the original intention of making a good movie.
if one day, every domestic film is wonderful, but the audience no longer likes this art form, then as practitioners, we can let the term "film" lie in the pile of old papers, and then calmly tell our children that we once walked through the colorful world of light and shadow.
(source: beijing youth daily)
