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more than 4,700 companies fell, and the shanghai composite index hit a new low! is it related to the surge in brokerages today?

2024-09-06

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on september 6, the market went down unilaterally in the afternoon, with the shanghai composite index hitting a new low, and the chinext index leading the decline. as of the close, the shanghai composite index fell 0.81%, the shenzhen component index fell 1.44%, and the chinext index fell 1.7%.

in terms of sectors, insurance, automobile manufacturing, securities, e-commerce and other sectors saw the largest increases, while photovoltaic equipment, folding screens, pcb concepts, ai glasses and other sectors saw the largest decreases.

overall, more stocks fell than rose, with more than 4,700 stocks falling in the market. the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets today was 534.8 billion, down 24.6 billion from the previous trading day.

on a friday that saw an unexpected sharp drop, only more than 500 stocks in the entire market closed in the green.

according to the industry index, as of the closing, there are roughly three sectors that maintained an upward trend: big finance, complete automobiles and a small number of others.

coincidentally, the securities sector also rose significantly today, although "monarch"and"haitong"the news of the merger madeguohaithe picture of securities opening the first single-digit board is a little subtle

in many stockholdersstereotypein recent yearsthe "bull market flag bearer" moves abnormally, and the result is often a short-term increase in the index, but the overall market does not improve much.

so, today a-shares have been falling continuously since almost 10 o'clock in the morning. is it the fault of the brokerage sector?

if not, what is the reason for the decline?

bull market flag bearer soarsbut more than 4,500 stocks fell
what's the problem?

directly to the conclusion:at least since this year, the securities sector and the overall market have risen and fallen in the same direction most of the time.the so-called "scumbag" securities sector has actually become much more "honest".

this year is really easy and the market"walking in the opposite direction"the recent continuous correction and "safe-haven"bankplate.

the author sorted out wind's historical market data and found that so far in 2024, there have been no trading days when the securities sector has risen by more than 2%, and at least the wind a-share index (that is, the entire market) has not closed down.

on the other hand, on the trading days when the banking sector has seen large gains this year, not only has the broader market often performed flat, but even securities firms, which are theoretically part of the “big finance” sector, have rarely moved in sync.you know, the rise of the weighted sectors is often considered to have the effect of "pulling up the index and protecting the market."

since the end of august, many stockholders have witnessed the "whale fall and everything comes to life" of bank stocks., brokerage stocks are more inclined to the "survival" side.

statistical results show that so far this year, in the 90 trading days in which the banking sector closed with positive lines, the securities sector recorded a total of 46 negative lines; the wind all a index recorded 48 negative lines.

in the 80 trading days when the securities sector closed with positive lines, the wind all a index closed with 60 positive lines.

so,what is the real reason for the market weakness today?

judging from the disk, it is mainlythe market style switches repeatedly between defense and growthcaused by.

that is, at a volume level of more than 500 billion,funds on the market flowed back to banks, insurance companies and large-cap chinese companieswhen individual stocks are moving in the same direction, small and medium-cap stocks will inevitably adjust; and when the market as a whole is weak, it is difficult for both styles to have the last laugh.

in addition, observe thatbroad-based etfsfrom the overall trend, we can find that today's "main battlefield" for supporting the market has seen a decrease in volume.there are a lot more selling orders (especially the selling orders at the end of the trading day) than usual., which caused the market sentiment to deteriorate directly.

why is the automobile sector bucking the trend?

as of the close, the automobile sector recorded four consecutive gains after rising and falling, and its increase was second only to the insurance and precious metal sectors. several concepts such as automobile dismantling, unmanned driving, and new energy vehicles also performed slightly during the session.

on the news front, the china passenger car association initially estimated that from august 1 to 31, the new energy vehicle market sold 1.015 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 42% and a month-on-month increase of 16%. the cumulative retail sales so far this year reached 6.004 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 35%.

in addition, with the arrival of the "golden september and silver october" sales season, many places have recently upgraded automobile consumption subsidies.

according to incomplete statistics from wind data, as of september 5, the maximum subsidy amount for car trade-in subsidies in beijing, guangdong, zhejiang, sichuan and other places can reach 20,000 yuan.

everbright securitieshe said that he was paying attention to the automobile sector. in the past 11 days, more than ten provinces and regions have issued upgraded automobile trade-in policies, with the common feature of doubling the subsidy standards for new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles. september and october are regarded as the "golden september and silver october" for auto sales, and coupled with the increasing promotion efforts of auto companies themselves, auto sales in september and october are expected to see both year-on-year and month-on-month growth. in particular, new energy vehicles with greater subsidies are expected to expand their growth advantages and bring opportunities for sector valuation repair.

investment is risky, independent judgment is important

cover image source: screenshot of market software