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citic securities: pessimistic sentiment is repaired and the style tends to be balanced

as we enter september, the policy is in the observation period, external signals have become clearer, and we still need to wait for the turning point of price signals; the release of the interim report, the change in dividend expectations, and the easing of market liquidity pressure, these three factors have jointly promoted the repair of investors' extremely pessimistic sentiment, and the style has tended to be balanced in stages; in terms of allocation, the bottom-line dividends, increased allocation to overseas, growth plus domestic demand may be repaired in the short term, and increased allocation still needs to wait for the turning point of price signals.

on the one hand, judging from the progress of the three major signals, domestic demand-boosting policies are expected to be launched in september, and the intensity is expected to be relatively mild; the fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the situation of the us election has become clearer; price signals are temporarily difficult to see a turning point, and more positive factors need to be accumulated to completely reverse expectations. on the other hand, from the perspective of the driving factors for the repair of market pessimism, a-shares will temporarily usher in a performance window period after the mid-term report season risks have been resolved; with the expansion of the scope of huijin's increase in holdings and the intervention of the central bank on the yield curve, the consensus expectation of bullish dividends has been temporarily broken, and the style will usher in a phased balance; the pace of foreign capital outflow has slowed down significantly, and the market liquidity environment is expected to improve.

cicc: the market is expected to stabilize marginally in september

the market is expected to stabilize marginally in september, and attention should be paid to the progress of the implementation of the steady growth policy. the a-share market has continued to consolidate in a weak position recently. the rotation speed of growth themes is fast and the sustainability is not strong enough. some high-dividend sectors that were relatively strong in the early stage have also experienced a correction. we believe that the logic that currently dominates the performance of the a-share market is still that investors are watching the pace and effect of the introduction of policies under weak demand. the recent marginal changes at home and abroad include: 1) the end of the a-share mid-year performance period. with the disclosure of the mid-year report, september entered a performance vacuum period, and the fundamental pressure in some fields was temporarily relieved. 2) combined with the current economic environment, investors expect further increase in the steady growth policy. 3) expectations for a us interest rate cut in september have risen, and global funds are expected to usher in a re-allocation, which may be beneficial to chinese assets.

in terms of allocation, the dividend sector has once again ushered in allocation opportunities after adjustments. at present, more attention should be paid to the fundamentals of the numerator and the sustainability of dividends. since mid-july, consumer electronics, semiconductors, etc. have adjusted by more than 10%, and the valuations are not high. in addition, the consumer electronics sector may have more news catalysts and other factors recently, and a phased market may be expected. pay attention to the field of technological innovation, especially sectors with independent industrial logic. export chains and globally priced resources may be differentiated after a short-term correction due to overseas fluctuations.

citic securities: steady your position and wait for an opportunity to attack

after several months of correction, the overall market environment improved marginally in september. the main reasons include: (1) the federal reserve is expected to start a rate cut cycle in september, and liquidity expectations will improve. (2) china's policy to expand domestic demand is expected to be strengthened, coupled with the golden september and silver october peak season, economic expectations are expected to stabilize. (3) after the mid-year report season, market risk appetite is expected to improve marginally. at the same time, the whole process is expected to improve gradually, and the market expectation volatility may have a certain degree of repetition. investors need to gradually turn to offense while maintaining patience. focus: electronics, non-bank financial, automobile, military industry, home appliances, medicine, internet, etc.

guotai junan securities: stock market rebounds amid volatility

the launch of a mid-term stock market trend requires seeing positive progress at the expectation level or valuation adjustments with sufficient safety margins; we must also see that favorable short-term changes are expected to widen the differences in investors' expectations amid a sluggish stock market, increase optimism, and drive a corrective rebound in the stock market amid volatility, creating more trading opportunities.

short-term rebound growth comes first, medium-term dividends are still valuable, and attention should be paid to the elasticity of hong kong stocks. the investment in 2024 is similar to that in 2023, that is, the barbell strategy. the difference is that the source of certainty is reduced. the barbell strategy in 2024 is within the blue-chip stocks (dividend leader + technology leader). at the same time, due to the continued rise, the volatility of the strategy has increased. the mid-term market of the stock market still needs to wait for the opportunity to swing, but short-term favorable changes are expected to make the market rebound and trading opportunities more. 1) technological growth: improved industrial prosperity + policy efforts to replace domestic products + expectations of scientific and technological innovation mergers and acquisitions. in terms of investment direction, electronics/military industry/communications and hong kong stocks are recommended. internet. 2) benefiting from policy support or improved supply and demand patterns, including automobiles/breeding/industrial metals (aluminum) and other directions. 3) stable cash flow and high dividends are not cost-effective after the stock price continues to rise. there is still a sense of allocation in the medium term. low-level layout: power/operators/highways and ports + resources, etc. hong kong stocks are better.

huatai securities: the market may still have high uncertainty, and it is recommended to grasp four high-probability clues

with the recent multiple macro benefits and improved micro-trading structure, market sentiment warmed up in the second half of last week: 1) the focus of overseas transactions shifted from recession trading to interest rate cut trading. the second quarter economic data of the united states exceeded expectations, and the probability of precautionary interest rate cuts increased; 2) dividends continued to "shrink", the chips of the group banks began to loosen, and the valuation differentiation coefficient fell back to below 10%, close to the level of the fourth quarter of 2018; 3) the differentiation of ah mid-year performance reports increased, and the performance resilience of hong kong stocks was stronger than that of a shares. electronics is the first-tier industry with the highest growth rate and the best trend.

with the current interweaving of overseas interest rate cuts/election trading and domestic mid-year report/policy trading, the market may still have high uncertainty. in terms of allocation, it is recommended to grasp four high-win clues: 1) ah premium convergence - increase allocation to hong kong stocks; 2) dividend "replacement" - a50 with stable roe and dividends and low valuation; 3) the intersection of sustained prosperity + improved mid-year performance - consumer electronics/shipping, etc.; 4) expectations of interest rate cuts heat up - pharmaceuticals and hong kong-listed internet stocks that will strongly benefit from interest rate cuts.

haitong securities: overseas liquidity easing may have a short-term impact on foreign investment in a-shares

drawing lessons from history, the improvement of overseas liquidity may promote the return of short-term flexible foreign capital to a-shares, but fundamentals may be the key to determine the overall direction of foreign capital flows. structurally, after the loosening of overseas liquidity, foreign capital of various attributes in a-shares prefers us dollar interest rate sensitive sectors such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, as well as high-end manufacturing with fundamental advantages. with the policy efforts, domestic fundamentals may see a turnaround, coupled with the improvement of overseas liquidity, the resonance of internal and external factors is expected to support the rise of the a-share center, and china's advantageous manufacturing may be the medium-term main line.

everbright securities: a-shares are expected to bottom out and stabilize

market view: limited downside space, bottom-up is expected. the a-share market has been weak recently, and the valuation is at a relatively low level in history, which has a certain cost-effectiveness. historically, when the a-share market is weak, it is usually accompanied by extreme risk factors. the risk factors faced by the current market may be relatively small, and the future market is expected to have limited downside space. in the future, active policies or marginal improvements in fundamentals are expected to drive the market to stabilize and rebound.

in terms of allocation direction, we focus on high dividend direction. from a historical perspective, except when the stock market rises rapidly, the csi dividend index may not have excess returns. at other times, the csi dividend index often outperforms the overall market. from the current situation, the possibility of a rapid rise in the market is relatively low, so it is expected that the high dividend direction is still worthy of long-term attention.

china merchants securities: expectations of a fed rate cut are rising, and a-shares focus on high-quality leading stocks

high-quality leading styles are expected to be relatively dominant. first, with the decline in us inflation and the cooling of the labor market, as well as powell's obvious dovish stance, the fed's monetary policy shift has been confirmed. the external liquidity environment facing a-shares will improve after the fed's interest rate cut, and the value leading styles that have been increased by northbound funds since the beginning of this year are expected to be dominant. second, the continued expansion of etfs has become an important variable in the a-share market. since the beginning of this year, non-bank financial, banking, utilities and other industries that are overweighted by etfs have achieved good excess returns. with the continued net inflow of passive funds, the large-cap leading styles they represent are expected to be dominant. third, premium growth and the new standards for oci accounts have driven continued net inflows of insurance funds, and they mainly prefer dividend styles.

huaxi securities: a-shares experienced a lot of hard work in september, with slight progress amid stability

good things take time, and we are making steady progress. in september, there are more positive signals for a-shares. first, the overseas fed's interest rate cut cycle has begun, and the strong trend of the rmb has opened up domestic policy space; second, after the release of the mid-year reports of enterprises, the pressure of the market's profit expectations to be lowered has been temporarily reduced; third, the august pmi data pointed to a further weakening of economic prosperity, and the incremental policy is expected to be strengthened, and the market risk preference is expected to improve marginally. the stock market calendar effect shows that market capital trading may be light before the national day holiday. therefore, the rebound of the low-level sectors of a-shares may continue for 1-2 weeks, but under the game of capital stock, the overall market may continue to fluctuate.

in the current bottom consolidation market, the risk appetite of incremental funds in the stock market is relatively low, so dividends and stable strategies are still relatively certain directions in the medium term, such as utilities and gold. in terms of themes, there are many catalysts in the consumer electronics industry in september, and attention should be paid to huawei's tri-fold screen, ar glasses, etc.

guosheng securities: a new round of "flooding" may be on the way

overall, the focus in the past half month has continued to be on stabilizing growth, promoting reform, and stabilizing confidence, including the deployment of more than 300 reform measures at the sixth meeting of the central reform commission on august 29 to stabilize confidence (improving market access, promoting private investment, etc.), the central bank on august 26 emphasized the continued "research of reserve increase policy measures", and the ministry of finance on august 30 required that policies continue to be strengthened, with the central bank buying bonds and 22 cities launching housing pension pilot projects.

continue to remind: the pressure of "maintaining 5%" throughout the year is increasing, and policies are urgently needed to "continue to exert efforts and be more powerful", especially the necessity and urgency of the central government to increase leverage. possible policies include: increasing the budget, expanding the deficit, issuing more special government bonds; further reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates; supporting localized bonds; reducing mortgage interest rates; expanding real estate storage, etc. other possible incremental policies include: further loosening real estate in core cities (cancelling purchase restrictions/cancelling the distinction between ordinary and non-ordinary houses), accelerating the issuance of special bonds, and supporting more deployment of private enterprises and internet companies.