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a-share market suddenly "heats up" and fund companies are optimistic about the restorative rebound

2024-09-02

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on august 30, the trading atmosphere in the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets heated up, with all major stock indexes rising across the board. the turnover of the two markets increased significantly, with a total turnover of 876.6 billion yuan, and nearly 4,700 stocks in the market turning red. specifically, technology and consumer-related sectors led the gains, with real estate, automobiles, consumer electronics, liquor, communications, and games rising sharply, while the previously strong dividend sector showed a correction, and the market showed a clear style switch.

regarding the market surge on the last trading day of august, most fund companies believe that the risk appetite of current market participants has begun to increase. if this situation can continue, it may indicate a signal that the market has bottomed out and rebounded temporarily.

caitong fund said that the market surge on august 30 reflected the correction of investors' overly pessimistic risk appetite. the semi-annual report "landed", the market expected the policy to be strengthened, and the expectation of overseas liquidity easing was warming up. other positive factors also began to attract investors' attention. "overseas liquidity expectations are gradually becoming clearer. the market expects that the federal reserve is likely to cut interest rates in september. the start of the overseas interest rate cut cycle may form positive support for the a-share market on the denominator side, increasing the certainty of the market bottom rebound. however, the recovery of confidence requires time to verify, and there is a high probability that there will be a periodic and repeated repair process in the future market." caitong fund said.

china europe fund believes that the recent appreciation of the rmb exchange rate has led to an improvement in the sentiment of chinese assets. first, historically, seasonal exchange settlement from august to october has a certain impact on the exchange rate; second, the sino-us relations have eased temporarily; third, the federal reserve is about to cut interest rates, and non-us currencies and emerging markets are generally strong. the rise on august 30 reflects that the market is more concerned about the potential further efforts of pro-cyclical policies, such as monetary, fiscal, and industrial aspects. at the same time, the improvement of overseas liquidity continues to have a continuous impact on the risk preference of major domestic asset classes.

golden eagle fund believes that there is a possibility of a bottom rebound in the future market, and potential positive changes have yet to be gradually confirmed. the federal reserve may implement its first interest rate cut in september, and the constraints of external pressure on my country's exchange rate and monetary policy space are expected to be reduced. with the improvement of overseas liquidity, domestic policy space will also be opened up.

xie yi, fund manager of nord fund, also said: "the rebound may start at any time. looking back, the stock market itself has undergone a long period of adjustment, but many companies are still growing, so the decline is actually the valuation, that is, the a-shares are currently in a state of high cost performance, and the market will need to revalue undervalued assets, but the time is still uncertain. what we can do is to try our best to identify better assets and hold them firmly and patiently. overall, we are still confident in the future of china's economy and the a-share market."

on august 30, the banking sector continued to fall by more than 2%, and the five major state-owned banks, including industrial and commercial bank of china, agricultural bank of china, construction bank of china, bank of communications, and postal savings bank of china, all fell by more than 3%. the high dividend and bonus sectors represented by banks showed a trend of differentiation. so, which sectors are worth paying attention to in the future market?

xie yi believes that, except for the banking, coal, oil and other sectors that have seen large gains or even new highs in the previous period, most sectors are at a relatively low point in terms of stage. from a valuation perspective, the bottom is likely to be 5-10 years, which is a state with high cost performance. for example, the liquor, food and beverage sectors in the consumer sector, pharmaceuticals and equipment in the medical field, consumer electronics and semiconductors in the electronics field, etc., among which the consumer electronics sector rose more on august 30, which may be related to the upcoming launch of apple's new generation of mobile phones. in addition to the above opportunities at the industry level, small and medium-sized stocks were generally under pressure in the early stage at the style level. there are many stocks with good fundamentals, which deserve special attention.

"considering that relatively positive changes in the market in the future are expected to come from domestic policies and improved liquidity after overseas interest rate cuts, we believe that among the current oversold stocks, we can focus in the short term on related sectors that benefit from domestic policies or a soft landing of the overseas economy, including military industry, machinery, new energy and other industries," said golden eagle fund.

guotai fund believes that in the short term, with the steady growth policy in force and the window for overseas interest rate cuts approaching, core assets will have opportunities for oversold rebounds from time to time, especially power equipment and new energy, medicine, and finance. however, in the long term, the macro environment in the second half of the year will be more complicated, and technology and security will still be the two main lines of policy. it is recommended that the main positions be biased towards the value of the market, and the technology theme is a tactical opportunity.

in terms of allocation, nuoan fund currently still recommends focusing on the two main lines of dividends and going overseas. in terms of specific products, it is expected that the dividend strategy may continue to diverge. dividend low-volatility assets will continue to focus on banks with considerable dividend yield expectations and improved asset quality expectations, hydropower and nuclear power with stable returns, and property insurance with stable premium growth. in addition, domestic exports may be expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate in the future. in the future, it is recommended to pay attention to excellent companies in the overseas sector that have fully reflected the us recession trade. after the market signals are clear, the focus will be shifted to high-performance growth and domestic demand. it is recommended to focus on manufacturing leaders such as electronics (intelligent driving and semiconductor autonomous control), machinery (equipment renewal and transformation and overseas competition), pharmaceuticals after the anti-corruption impact is fully priced (industrial integration, overseas breakthroughs), and hong kong-listed internet and consumer leading companies.

china europe fund believes that when the market is in a buying range, the clues that will benefit from the structural switching in the short-term market rebound are first the oversold and undervalued sectors, especially the core industries of stabilizing growth such as real estate that may benefit from subsequent policy stimulus; secondly, the rebound opportunity after the oversold domestic demand sector; and finally, the main growth lines such as technological independence and the "apple chain".