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live guests:ma yiwen fund manager, cathay pacific quantitative investment department

live broadcast time:august 20, 2024

summary:

the most important basic logic of the bottom rebound at present comes from the support of fundamentals, or the liquidity shows a significant improvement. if we make a judgment on the subsequent market, we think september may be a time point worth observing, because the federal reserve may start this round of interest rate cuts at the september interest rate meeting. if the federal reserve starts a rate cut cycle, we can expect the domestic policy space to gradually open up. from the perspective of subdivision, we are more optimistic about the dumbbell strategy in the second half of the year. on one side are some defensive attributes such as low valuations, central state-owned enterprises and dividends, and on the other side are hard technology themes with long-term logic such as "technical valuations", high growth and domestic substitution logic.

the underlying logic of "zhongte guarantee" is the valuation improvement and the robustness of the operating quality of central state-owned enterprises. in 2024, the operating quality of central state-owned enterprises is already in the process of improvement, especially the net profit margin indicator, which has begun to gradually surpass private enterprises. in addition, this year, the state-owned assets supervision and administration commission also proposed new market value management assessment requirements. the sasac also proposed specific operating methods for market value management such as dividends, repurchases, and share purchases. these forms are beneficial to the stock price and market value performance of listed companies in the medium and long term. the connection between dividends and "zhongte guarantee" is on the one hand low valuation, and on the other hand the central state-owned enterprises have dividend stability, so the current dividend index and the central state-owned enterprise index have a large overlap. there are also many etfs on the market that combine the two. you can pay attention to the dividend state-owned enterprise etf (510720), which can highlight the characteristics of low valuation and continuous and stable dividends.

the advantage of hong kong stock dividends is that, on the one hand, hong kong stocks have low valuations, and on the other hand, they are more significantly affected by overseas liquidity. therefore, under the premise of the fed's interest rate cut in september, the short-term performance or resilience of hong kong stocks may be relatively strong. in addition, there is an expectation of adjustment of dividend tax on hong kong stocks. if the dividend tax of hong kong stock connect is adjusted or even reduced in the future, then the low-valuation dividend targets of hong kong stocks may have a relatively large valuation repair space. you can pay attention to the dividend hong kong stock etf (159331).

in terms of "technology valuation", the optical module industry chain mapped overseas by the artificial intelligence sector is currently attracting market attention, because the technical strength of domestic optical modules is relatively high, and the leading companies can continue to receive overseas orders, and their performance growth in the past few quarters has been relatively fast. at the current stage, the communications sector has valuation repair opportunities after adjustments, and you can pay attention to the communications etf (515880).

in addition, we can also pay attention to the direction of domestic substitution, mainly the semiconductor chip industry chain. from the policy level, whether it is the new quality productivity policy since last year or the news of the establishment of the third phase of the big fund this year, they are all supporting the development of semiconductor chips.from the perspective of specific subdivisions or target selection, we think that semiconductor equipment materials is a direction that deserves special attention at present, especially the orders or contract liabilities of the leading semiconductor equipment manufacturers. in the past two years, they have been relatively resilient. you can also pay attention to semiconductor equipment in batches when the market is low.etf (159516). apple's new mobile phone is about to be released, and the android camp will also have ai mobile phones and ai pcs to follow. ai terminal products are a very important trend of change in the future. it may lead to a new round of replacement cycle. i am still optimistic about the opportunity of the technology sector to recover.

in terms of large-cap broad-based stocks, you can pay attention to the shanghai composite index etf (510760) and the 300 enhanced etf (561300). the current incremental funds in the market come from institutional funds, and their investment preferences may still be mainly concentrated on the core large-cap broad-based index. you can pay attention to the 300 enhanced etf, which has a more obvious excess return than the csi 300 in the past year. in addition, when trading the shanghai composite index, investors are more likely to have a good judgment of the points, so they can consider adding positions in batches through grid trading or buying more as the price drops.

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