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the news that ibm will completely shut down its r&d department in china is spreading. it is reported that more than 1,000 employees will be affected.

there are several main reasons why ibm cut its r&d staff this time:

the first is that ibm's transformation strategy and development have not met expectations. it has typical large enterprise characteristics, but it has not been able to transform in the current wave of artificial intelligence and cloud computing.

for ibm, total revenue in the second quarter was $15.8 billion, up 2%, or 4% at constant exchange rates; software business revenue increased 7%, or 8% at constant exchange rates; consulting business revenue decreased 1%, or 2% at constant exchange rates; infrastructure business revenue increased 1%, or 3% at constant exchange rates.

the second reason is the impact of ibm's chinese customers. on the one hand, china's de-ioe strategy has reduced the demand for ibm from large domestic state-owned enterprises, leaving only some private and foreign enterprises with some demand. multinational companies have various positioning for their branches in china, some are sales centers and customer support centers close to customers, and only a few are global strategic r&d centers.

ibm has relatively few r&d tasks in china, and the team that was laid off this time was relatively process-oriented and its business could be easily replaced by ai.

third, due to the impact of the overall environment and economic situation, it companies around the world have been laying off employees multiple times this year. in addition, the long-term continuation of decoupling and supply chain disruption also has a significant impact.

the meeting took only three minutes to make the decision. such a resolute attitude is somewhat regrettable. to put it bluntly, some foreign companies do not want to do business with china anymore. it is worth thinking deeply about the motivation behind it, whether there are corresponding political pressure factors, and possible relocation locations and comparative advantages.

at an ibm china enterprise ai forum held on august 22, hans dekkers, general manager of ibm asia pacific, said: "this year marks the 40th anniversary of ibm's entry into the chinese market. we hope to continue to take root in china for the next 40 years or even longer."

of course, when analyzing a specific situation, you can’t just look at what the other party says, but also look at what they do specifically.

it should be said that the relevant departments have spared no effort in attracting foreign investment. the china development forum at the beginning of the year was also packed with distinguished guests, and dialogue with the united states is also ongoing. however, in fact, many countries are constantly arranging backup investment sites.

just on august 27, vietnam issued the "government decree on strengthening the training of high-quality human resources in the fields of semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence and cloud computing", indicating that the vietnamese political situation attaches great importance to the lack of talent in these fields and strives to attract foreign companies to invest more resources in vietnam.

the corporate competition situation is changing rapidly, and whether or not new international corporate investment can be introduced is an important consideration in judging the domestic investment environment.

the current large number of foreign companies withdrawing from china may have several impacts:

first, it will have a chilling effect and a demonstration effect, and more companies will consider withdrawing from the country, especially the chinese branches of foreign companies with r&d functions withdrawing from china, which is more noteworthy.

for example, microsoft research china was once the huangpu military academy of the domestic it industry and has trained a large number of talents. after these talents leave microsoft, this type of division will produce technology and knowledge spillover effects and innovation networks, which are actually very obvious.

according to the balance of payments data from april to june released by the state administration of foreign exchange of china, foreign direct investment in china decreased by us$14.8 billion in the second quarter of this year, which is the first time that foreign direct investment has experienced negative growth in three quarters. therefore, we should pay special attention to whether the withdrawal of ibm's r&d department will have a chilling effect and demonstration effect on other foreign companies.

second, china's industrial upgrading has not yet been completed. foreign companies can provide a large number of high-quality jobs. if foreign employees flow into the job market, it will further impact the current tense employment situation.

it is already difficult to find a job now. in the past, foreign companies such as ibm were models of achieving a relatively balanced work and life. the market situation has changed drastically. now it is difficult to find foreign it people who can quickly adapt to the work pace of foreign companies. most domestic internet companies are also shrinking, and there are not many new bright spots and incremental markets.

third, my country's industrial upgrading is currently underway, and the independent substitution strategy is also developing further. however, it is also necessary to grasp the relationship between the independent substitution strategy and the international layout. according to the theory of comparative advantage, it is not necessary for a country to complete all research and development and production of the entire chain.

seizing opportunities in future industries and cultivating new industrial space has become a pressing task, but it cannot be rushed.

to continue to maintain good relations with foreign companies and reduce the risk of gradual decoupling from foreign companies, we need to make good risk predictions and take corresponding measures. because it is really difficult for chinese workers today!

author: xiang kun

｜photo visual china

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