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Editor's Note

From August 18 to 20, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam and President To Lin paid a state visit to China. China became the first country he visited after taking office as General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam earlier this month. During the visit, To Lin first arrived in Guangzhou to explore the red footprints of Ho Chi Minh's revolutionary activities in China and interacted with Chinese and Vietnamese friendly people. Afterwards, he held talks with Chinese state leaders in Beijing and signed a number of cooperation agreements.

Why did To Lin choose China as his first overseas trip after taking office? What is the significance of both sides regarding each other as "diplomatic priorities"? Can Vietnam cope with the pressure of the United States to choose sides? Phoenix Reference specially invited Vietnam research expert Zhao Weihua to interpret.

Key points

1. Zhao Weihua believes that Su Lin's visit to China this time continued the friendly policy toward China during the Nguyen Phu Trong period and further deepened the political mutual trust between the two countries. China reiterated that Vietnam is a priority direction for its neighboring diplomacy, and Su Lin also stated that Vietnam regards China as a strategic choice and top priority for Vietnam's foreign policy. Although Vietnam also calls the United States and Russia "top priorities", they cannot be compared with China in terms of importance. Vietnam pursues "bamboo diplomacy" and maintains a balanced policy between China and the United States, but its friendship with China will not change.

2. Zhao Weihua said that China is Vietnam's largest trading partner, and the economic and trade ties between the two countries are extremely close. Although Vietnam has been in a trade deficit for a long time, the supply chain problems during the epidemic have made Vietnam realize the importance of China to its production chain. This deep interdependence has made Vietnam pay more attention to stabilizing and deepening economic cooperation with China in the Sino-US competition pattern.

3. Zhao Weihua pointed out that the South China Sea dispute between China and Vietnam still exists, and the common interests of China and Vietnam outweigh the local differences. Both sides need to show strategic patience on the South China Sea issue and maintain regional stability by managing differences. With the intervention of major powers outside the region, China and Vietnam need to show more goodwill and wisdom to avoid differences affecting bilateral relations. China has released goodwill on the South China Sea issue, and hopes to see practical actions from Vietnam next.

4. Zhao Weihua believes that To Lin’s work style is quite different from that of previous leaders, which is related to his background in the public security system. His rapid appointment was also completely unexpected. His trip to Guangzhou to commemorate President Ho Chi Minh is also to show the outside world that he is the successor of Ho Chi Minh’s cause, not just a continuation of Nguyen Phu Trong’s line.

Dialogue | Professor Zhao Weihua, Director of the Center for Research on China and Neighboring Countries at Fudan University

Interview | Hou Yichao

Editor: Hou Yichao, Li Renkai

How does Vietnam choose sides in the game between China and the United States?

Phoenix Reference: Which cooperation projects do you think are the most important during Su Lin’s visit? What role did they play?

Zhao Weihua: I think the most important thing about Su Lin’s visit to China isContinuation of the friendly policy towards China during the Nguyen Phu Trong periodThe two sides have deepened political mutual trust. Tou Lin has shown China that he will continue to adhere to the socialist path, that is, continue to adhere to the line of Sino-Vietnamese friendship. This is the first time that Tou Lin, the top leader of the Party and the country, has visited China. As the top leader of the Vietnamese Party and the country, he has established a new relationship with the Chinese leaders. The two sides have gained mutual understanding and deepened this political mutual trust, which has laid the foundation for the further development of Sino-Vietnamese relations. I think this is the most important thing.

▎General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam and President of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam To Lin and his wife and a high-level Vietnamese delegation arrived in Guangzhou. Source: VNA

Phoenix Reference: Both sides have made high-profile gestures in diplomacy. For example, in a press release, China reiterated that Vietnam is a priority in its neighboring diplomacy. Su Lin said that Vietnam regards China as a strategic choice and top priority in its foreign policy. Under the attention of the United States, is Vietnam under pressure to choose sides? How can we fully understand such a statement of relationship?

Zhao Weihua: Both sides wanted to show goodwill to each other during this meeting. From another perspective,Both sides actually value each other very much.. For China, Vietnam is indeed a very important neighbor. Among China's neighbors, except for Russia, Japan and India, there is almost no other country more important than Vietnam. It can be said that Vietnam is definitely in the top three among China's neighboring diplomatic relations.In terms of culture, political system and geopolitical structure, Vietnam is even more important than India.

▎ Chinese and Vietnamese leaders held bilateral talks. Source: Xinhua News Agency

For Vietnam, China can be said to be one of its two most important foreign relations., the United States is important, and China is of course also important. So Vietnam has expressed this "first priority" to China, the United States, and Russia, at least to these three countries, but compared with China,Whether it is the United States or Russia, it is actually difficult to completely compare with China in terms of importance.From a geopolitical perspective, China and Vietnam are connected by mountains and rivers and face each other across the sea. Vietnam must consider how to properly handle Sino-Vietnamese relations, stabilize Sino-Vietnamese relations, and maintain friendship with China.

Vietnam does not have such a geopolitical structure with the United States and Russia. In terms of economy and trade, China is Vietnam's largest trading partner and its largest supplier of goods, so the mutual dependence between the two sides is very deep. Although Vietnam often complains that China sells too much to it and buys too little from Vietnam, the trade between the two sides is unbalanced and Vietnam has always had a deficit. However, the outbreak of the epidemic has made Vietnam realize a fact.As the largest importer of goods, China provides Vietnam with high-quality and low-cost goods, which is indispensable in Vietnam's production chain.。

▎ Vietnam's total imports from China from July 2019 to July 2024. Source: CEIC

Vietnam closed all its borders with China at the beginning of the epidemic. However, it soon became clear that Vietnamese factories could not complete normal production and could not supply the European and American markets normally, because the global value chain is an interconnected whole.Without China providing Vietnam with these high-quality and low-cost materials, Vietnam would not be able to carry out normal production.Therefore, in terms of economy and trade, China and Vietnam have the closest ties, and the United States is Vietnam's second largest trading partner.Although it can be compared with China because the United States is Vietnam's largest export destination for this commodity, it is difficult to say that its importance surpasses China.The level of trade between Vietnam and Russia cannot be compared with that between China and Vietnam at all.

In terms of political systems, China and Vietnam are similar, and both sides are still carrying out reform and opening up, innovation and opening up, and socialist construction. Therefore, China's importance to Vietnam is comprehensive.Although Vietnam also says that the United States and Russia are Vietnam’s top priorities, this first priority is still slightly inferior to that of China.The mutual statements made by the leaders of both sides during this meeting were not only intended to show their importance to each other, but also to state an objective reality.

In the current situation of fierce strategic competition between China and the United States, does Vietnam feel pressure to choose sides? I think it does feel pressure from the United States.. It is well known that the United States wants to "decouple and break the chain" in the current competitive situation with China, and put pressure on other countries not to cooperate with certain Chinese companies or supply certain products to China, so Vietnam must face such pressure. However, China has never put such pressure on Vietnam or other countries - requiring other countries not to develop relations with another country or any country, or China has never interfered in the internal affairs of other countries.But under this pressure, Vietnam is very clear about its national interests.

Vietnam has long pursued the so-called "bamboo diplomacy". It wants to play both sides between China and the United States, and it has its own way of speaking.Vietnam can distinguish the importance of pressure from the United States and the choice of China. Just like the consensus reached by the Vietnamese top leaders, Vietnam must stand between China and the United States and cannot lean towards either side. Leaning towards either side will cause a serious blow to Vietnam’s national interests. Only by standing between China and the United States can Vietnam’s interests be protected to the greatest extent. Despite the pressure from the United States, Vietnam will not change its balancing policy between China and the United States. Therefore,Being friendly to China is Vietnam's strategic choice, and this cannot be changed.。

Expert: China has shown enough goodwill on the South China Sea issue and hopes to see Vietnam take practical actions

Phoenix Reference: The discussion between the two sides on the South China Sea issue is also a focus. After sincere and frank discussions on the recent joint exercises between the Vietnamese Coast Guard and the Philippines, as well as the continental shelf delimitation case, how to further manage differences?

Zhao Weihua: The South China Sea issue is a topic that cannot be avoided between China and Vietnam. There are indeed disputes between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea, which is not to be denied. However, the leaders of China and Vietnam, including when Nguyen Phu Trong was alive, actually reached a consensus that China-Vietnam friendship is in the interests of both countries.The common interests of China and Vietnam far outweigh this local difference. This is the consensus reached by the leaders of China and Vietnam.。

▎ The actual control or occupation of the main islands and reefs in the Nansha Islands by various parties in 2016.

I think as a politician, Su Lin can certainly see this from the overall perspective.Disagreements over the South China Sea are only a part of China-Vietnam relations.

Such differences between China and Vietnam once included land territorial disputes, differences in the Beibu Gulf, and differences in the Nansha region.When these three major differences existed, China-Vietnam relations were able to develop in a friendly manner, let alone now?China and Vietnam have resolved their land border disputes and the Beibu Gulf dispute. Now, the only remaining disputes are the territorial sovereignty dispute and maritime dispute in the Nansha Sea. Compared with the 1990s, the differences between China and Vietnam have been greatly reduced. Therefore, both sides should have the ability and wisdom to resolve these issues. However, maritime issues are particularly complex and will take time to resolve.

Therefore, both sides should have strategic patience and frankly discuss the differences when the overall situation of China and Vietnam is more important than the local differences. Now of course we can also recognize that the differences at sea, especially in the Nansha area, are very complicated.It is far more complicated than the differences on land and in the Beibu Gulf., which cannot be resolved in the short term, and at the same time cannot affect the overall situation of China-Vietnam friendship. Therefore, it is necessary to manage this difference and put this dispute aside.

Both sides have taken measures to prevent this disagreement from affecting the overall situation. Of course, China has already released enough goodwill to Vietnam.I think this goodwill release cannot be a unilateral release by China alone. Vietnam should also make efforts.

At present, major powers outside the region continue to intervene in the South China Sea, constantly instigating relations between China and the countries surrounding the South China Sea, attempting to create tensions in the surrounding areas. China and Vietnam should show more goodwill and wisdom, not be confused by the actions and words of certain countries outside the region, and manage the differences in the South China Sea to maintain stability in the South China Sea. I think this is the point.We not only need to hear that Vietnam wants to manage differences, we also want to see more action from Vietnam.

▎The United States frequently stirs up incidents and creates tension in the South China Sea.

Su Lin's decisive governing style will be different from previous leaders

Phoenix Reference: Does the signing of the "Joint Statement on Further Strengthening the Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership and Promoting the China-Vietnam Community of Shared Future" by the two countries mean something different from expectations? Some media pointed out that Su Lin is a realistic politician. Can this visit reveal the details of his specific governance style?

Zhao Weihua: I think it was also mentioned in the China-Vietnam Joint Statement.The two sides continue to build a strategically significant China-Vietnam community with a shared futureI watched the report of the China-Vietnam TV station. They also mentioned the China-Vietnam community of shared destiny, which is of course a community with a shared future. Both sides mentioned this, which shows that Su Lin is going to inherit the agreement reached between Nguyen Phu Trong and the Chinese leaders.The promotion of the China-Vietnam community with a shared future will continue.

The characteristics of Su Lin's work are different from those of Nguyen Phu Trong and Nong Duc Manh. Nguyen Phu Trong and Nong Duc Manh, one comes from the technical department and the other comes from the theoretical system. They are basically civil servants who govern the country, and then they rise to leadership positions from technical officials or theoretical experts.Su Lin entered the public security system during college and has been working in the system ever since.His governing style is, to some extent, very decisive.So his style is definitely different from Nguyen Phu Trong's.

▎To Lin served as Minister of Public Security of Vietnam for eight years before he took office as President of Vietnam. He was awarded the rank of General of Police in 2019. Source: VNA

For example, the speed at which he was elected as General Secretary far exceeded people's expectations. Previously, many domestic experts believed that To Lin would serve as acting General Secretary for a year and a half, and then be elected at the 14th National Congress. Another view is that To Lin would follow the procedures and be elected at the 10th Plenary Session of the 13th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam held in late September or early October, but in fact, To Lin did not follow these expected steps.In fact, he was announced as the elected general secretary at the central meeting after handling the funeral of General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong.This was also the case when Liang Sanguang was elected as a member of the Politburo on the 16th.

He has done some things in such a short time since he was elected general secretary.Including his visit to China just two weeks after his election, all of these were beyond people's expectations.Therefore, his style of doing things will be very different from that of Nguyen Phu Trong in the future. Especially his trip to Guangzhou to commemorate President Ho Chi Minh, in fact, his actions show that he is not simply continuing Nguyen Phu Trong's route.Instead, he wanted to show the outside world that he was the successor to Ho Chi Minh's cause.