Experts: Multiple demands support the long-term development of real estate
2024-08-20
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On August 14, the 2024 Boao Real Estate Forum was held in Hainan. The "2024 China Real Estate Industry Chain Development White Paper" released by the forum showed that judging from the data on national housing prices, sales and unsold areas, the real estate market is still hovering at the bottom, and the overall performance has been sluggish since the beginning of this year, but some positive signs have begun to emerge. At the policy level, the policy direction of real estate in the first half of the year has been clear, and the positive factors for the market trend in the second half of the year have increased.
At the forum, experts expressed their opinions and discussed in depth the future trends of the real estate industry, bringing the latest cutting-edge viewpoints in terms of macroeconomic background and actual market performance.
Fan Gang: The urbanization process will release housing demand
In his keynote speech on "Policies and Countermeasures in Economic Fluctuations", Fan Gang, vice president of the China Economic System Reform Research Association and president of the Shenzhen Institute of Comprehensive Development, a national high-end think tank, said: "The current real estate market has reached or is close to the bottom. There is still a crawling stage at the bottom, the so-called 'L' shape, and it will go through a difficult period."
Fan Gang mentioned that my country's real estate market has experienced a long period of rapid development and lacks experience in dealing with fluctuations. But now all parties know the problems in the market, and policies have been adjusted to a certain extent. Fan Gang believes that the process of urbanization will release housing demand to a certain extent. "The process of urbanization releases not only the rigid demand and improvement demand of urban residents, but also the 'migration demand'. On the one hand, it is the housing demand of farmers after moving to the city; on the other hand, urbanization is accompanied by industrialization, which leads to continuous changes in the industrial structure. When enterprises become larger, they need to transition to large cities, which leads to the migration of people from small cities to large cities."
Ronnie Chan: After the adjustment period, the market will develop rationally and healthily
At the forum, Ronnie Chan, Honorary Chairman of Hang Lung Group and Hang Lung Properties, said that China's real estate industry is very special. Mainland real estate developers mainly began to develop in the early to mid-1990s. With only more than 30 years of development, they were able to create the world's largest real estate market.
Chen Qizhuo believes that there are still new demands in the real estate market. This round of industry adjustment cycle is a good thing for the rational and healthy development of real estate. "The real estate industry will no longer create huge wealth as before, and there will be a very different environment. Enterprises must be clear-headed, otherwise they will be eliminated." Chen Qizhuo said that most of the current leading enterprises are state-owned enterprises and are well regulated. It is hoped that after the improvement of the regulatory mechanism, more private enterprises will be able to participate. At the same time, enterprises should pay attention to the long-term development trend of the national economy, which is the key to the country's long-term competitiveness in the world.
Lu Ting: Guaranteed delivery of housing is an important way to clear real estate
Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Securities, mentioned in his speech that many people believe that China's real estate industry is absolutely oversupplied, which is a misunderstanding. The real estate industry is very important to China's economy, but it is not absolutely oversupplied. In the future, with the flow of population, there will still be demand for real estate in many places.
Lu Ting believes that the combination of real estate clearance and reform is the most conducive to the development of the industry. China's real estate industry is very different from that of other countries in that there are a large number of guaranteed delivery problems, so clearance becomes particularly important. "Why is guaranteed delivery an important way to clear the real estate market? Because before this round of real estate market downturn, it was mainly based on pre-sale new houses, which is equivalent to a futures market, looking forward to future delivery. If there is no delivery mechanism and no supervision to maintain market order, we certainly cannot expect this market to be cleared and resume normal operation."
"How to deal with the issue of guaranteed housing delivery is not only a question of how the government and developers have fulfilled their responsibilities over the past period of time, but also a question of rebuilding the market's confidence in developers and confidence in supervision. This is a key step." Lu Ting said that in this process, guaranteed housing delivery can also drive total demand and bring about a certain degree of repair of the entire Chinese credit chain. In terms of reform, China's land allocation, transfer payments, population inflow, etc. should be linked together to see new supply and demand.
Shao Yu: Better quality is the unchanging topic of real estate
At the forum, Shao Yu, a specially-appointed senior researcher at the National Finance and Development Laboratory, mentioned: "The future development of the real estate industry is nothing more than the continued relaxation of the control of land factors. After the relaxation, a larger industry will be formed. Just like the current low-altitude economy, the more airspace is opened up, the more room for development there will be."
In an interview with the media, Shao Yu further mentioned that real estate is a high-cycle industry, but the current real estate adjustment cycle is completely different from previous cycles. "In comparison, previous cycles may not be considered cycles, because the industry continued to rise in the past, and a group of companies fell and a new group emerged. It was the right choice to enter at any time. But in the current cycle, it is still impossible to predict the arrival of the bottom. The only thing that can support the bottom is the government and state-owned assets, which constantly use time to exchange space."
Shao Yu believes: "New models of transformation of cultural tourism, health care and other industries have been tried one after another, but they have never been able to succeed because this industry is still mainly residential. What everyone needs now is a better environment, better services, and more convenient transportation. This is also an eternal topic in real estate. Even if the market is down now, the Chinese real estate market is still the largest real estate market in the world. As long as the quality continues to improve, there will be buyers who choose it."
Text | Reporter Xu WeilunPhoto | Provided by the organizer
