Brown University scholar Lyle Goldstein wrote: In the South China Sea, the United States should understand a common sense
2024-08-20
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Hong Kong's Asia Times website August 13 article, original title: It's not worth going to war with China over Ren'ai Reef Tensions in the South China Sea have eased slightly as the Philippine and Chinese governments appear to have reached a temporary arrangement for the Philippines to deliver humanitarian supplies to a World War II warship that was deliberately stranded on the Second Thomas Shoal. To be sure, the new developments in this long-running maritime dispute are encouraging. Unfortunately, however, another crisis may not be far away.
In June, the Chinese Coast Guard expelled a Philippine ship from the Second Thomas Shoal. Some commentators even called for triggering the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. With the situation in Ukraine turbulent and the US election in full swing, Washington is undoubtedly unwilling to show any weakness.
The US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense recently visited Manila at the same time, bringing a $500 million aid package and proposals to strengthen intelligence sharing. This year, the US military has been active in the Philippines and its surrounding areas.
Seeing these trends, one cannot help but wonder whether risking a military conflict with China in the South China Sea is truly in the national interest of the United States. Many people in Washington have expressed serious concerns about the so-called "Chinese expansion" and "Beijing aggression," but the actual situation is not what everyone imagines.
China is indeed building on some of the Spratly islands and reefs. But what is less mentioned is that China deliberately does not take full advantage of its new pieces on the "chessboard" and does not deploy combat-capable aircraft there. Similarly, the use of water cannons by the Chinese Coast Guard is not accidental. It is a conscious choice to achieve its goals without resorting to lethal force - another clear sign of Chinese restraint.
Moreover, from a broader perspective, China has not actually blocked or impeded international trade in key sea lanes, nor has it used force on a large scale in more than 40 years—remarkable for a rising power.
So what exactly is China planning in the South China Sea? There is no doubt that the Chinese government seeks to protect its fishing and drilling rights, but more importantly, it has a strategic imperative to protect China’s trade routes. But unfortunately, almost all coverage of the South China Sea issue ignores China’s primary motivations.
Looking at the map, the Philippines is extremely close to the Taiwan Strait. The establishment of new U.S. bases in the Philippines will put Washington in a more advantageous position. Given the delicate historical relationship between Washington and Manila, the establishment of bases in the Philippines is not a safe thing. Therefore, the United States is working hard to secure its "new" foothold in the Philippine Islands, upgrading facilities in several different locations.
The so-called "defense of Taiwan" by the United States is indeed problematic, especially considering that China has achieved conventional military superiority in the surrounding area and there is considerable nuclear risk. This extremely dangerous issue now seems to be affecting the stability of the South China Sea situation.
It is no coincidence that the Second Thomas Shoal has become a hot potato just as the United States has begun to strengthen its bases on the northern side of the Philippine Islands. There is no doubt that the United States should defend the Philippines if necessary. But on the other hand, Washington should not rashly risk going to war with another nuclear power. Common sense tells us that the United States should completely rule out any idea of going to war with China over disputed islands or angry fishermen.
As we all know, according to the "Monroe Doctrine", the United States will never allow external powers to interfere in the Caribbean. For the sake of US national security, Washington always makes moves in this region, even if it means frequent military interventions and even splitting Colombia to build the Panama Canal. Compared with the rude Uncle Sam, China is far from that. (The author is Lyle Goldstein, a visiting professor at Brown University and director of Asian affairs at the "Defense Priorities" think tank, translated by Qiao Heng)
