Changan Automobile's pit is not big, but it is slow to fill
2024-08-19
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finally,Changan AutomobileSigns of a decline were significant enough to attract outside attention.
According to the latest official data, Changan Automobile sold 170,631 vehicles in July 2024. Compared with the same period last year, sales fell by 17.86%.This means that since April 2024, Changan Automobile's monthly sales have fallen by more than double digits for four consecutive months.Since the second quarter, Changan Automobile has been the only representative of domestic brands with negative year-on-year growth in the monthly TOP10 automakers' sales ranking.In fact, the impression that Changan Automobile leaves on the outside world is "strong in independent brands and weak in joint ventures", so in recent years, with the overall market outlook for independent brands bullish, Changan Automobile is also in a steady upward trend.In 2023, Changan Automobile's sales volume reached 2.5531 million vehicles, an increase of 8.82% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of self-owned brands reached 2.0978 million vehicles, an increase of 11.91% year-on-year; the sales volume of self-owned passenger cars reached 1.597 million vehicles, an increase of 14.86% year-on-year; and the overseas sales volume of self-owned brands reached 236,400 vehicles, an increase of 39.23% year-on-year.Under the premise that domestic brands almost support the entire Changan Automobile, the main reason for the continuous fluctuations in Changan Automobile's sales volume, of course, also comes from domestic brands.
It is obvious that the decline in Changan Automobile's sales is closely related to the poor performance of its fuel vehicles.In July, Chongqing Changan,Changan Ford、Changan MazdaAll of them experienced double-digit declines, and these three major brands are mainly engaged in fuel vehicles.More specifically, in the first half of this year, the sales of Changan's two flagship models, the CS75 series and the Eado series, both experienced double-digit declines, with the sales of the CS75 reaching 99,900 units, down 12.27% year-on-year, and the sales of the Eado reaching 69,400 units, down 14.03% year-on-year.Think about it, the CS75 PLUS, which once had a monthly sales volume of 30,000 or more and was the only car that could compete with the Haval H6, has been selling around 10,000 units this year. The leader in the sedan segment, the EADO, has been experiencing the embarrassing monthly sales of less than 10,000 units for many months.However, isn’t the decline of fuel vehicles a general trend? The rise of domestic brands in the domestic market is mainly driven by the new energy locomotive.From January to July, Changan Automobile's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles reached 344,483 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%. In the field of new energy, Changan has actually been making continuous progress.In comparison, Geely Auto sold 379,236 new energy vehicles from January to July, a year-on-year growth rate of 105%.In addition, except for the entry-level model Lumin, which has contributed more than 10,000 sales to Changan Automobile, Changan Automobile has basically no new models with sales exceeding 10,000 in the mid-range and mid-to-high-end car series.As the highest-end new energy brand under Changan Automobile, Avita has not had a strong presence in the entire mid-to-high-end market. From January to July, a total of 32,655 new cars were delivered, with an average of less than 5,000 units, which is still far from the planned target of 100,000 units this year.From January to July this year,Changan QiyuanThe cumulative sales volume is 85,413 units, while Changan Qiyuan's sales target for 2024 is 250,000 units. As of the end of July, only 34% of the sales target has been achieved. All its models have experienced varying degrees of month-on-month declines, especially Qiyuan Q05, which sold 2,672 units in July, a month-on-month decline of 36.32%.Dark BlueChangan Automobile is the only new energy brand that can breathe a sigh of relief. Deep Blue Automobile delivered 100,579 vehicles from January to July.Although DeepBlue Auto has still shown a downward trend month-on-month in the past two months, we can assume that the DeepBlue G318 has just started delivery, and the launch of the new DeepBlue S07 has had a certain impact on sales.Therefore, we still have to wait until the results in August and September to draw conclusions about the true sales performance of this brand.However, judging from the current trend, Shenlan seems to have to make more efforts if it wants to achieve monthly sales of over 10,000 units for a single model.Through the above analysis, we can see that the fluctuation of Changan Automobile's sales volume is due to the different base numbers. The decline in the number of fuel vehicles is far greater than the increase in the number of new energy vehicles. The difference in quantity caused by this decline and increase is the main reason for the decline in total sales.
It would be wrong to conclude that Changan Automobile is conservative and unenterprising.From the epoch-making new energy strategy "Shangri-La" formulated many years ago, to the "Beidou Tianshu" plan that leads the brand with intelligence, to today's SDA platform architecture, Changan Automobile has put together a new energy smart car landscape dominated by digital and software.From the perspective of technological reserves alone, Changan Automobile is not inferior to all the new forces and traditional car manufacturing entities that have established themselves in the leading camp of new energy today.The key issue lies in the monetization of technology, or in other words, the time has come to test Changan Automobile's ability to operate its new energy brand.We first discover problems from some specific products.For example, the Qiyuan A06 "disappearance" incident is quite famous in the circle.At the end of 2023, the Qiyuan A06 new car had already made all preparations for its launch, and even the first batch of car owners had signed reservation contracts. However, in the end, the A06 was directly cancelled from the market without any explanation, and the small number of A06s that had been produced were sold internally at a 25% discount.The reason for this dilemma is that Changan Automobile believes that Qiyuan A06 is likely to destroyUNI-VA sports label that has been hard at work over the past two years.The A07, Changan Qiyuan's first model, is similar to theDark blue SL03Remained consistent.When a large number of new products overlap in price, product positioning, and even internal and external design, internal friction in the implementation of Changan Automobile's new energy strategy is inevitable.In fact, in the field of new energy, Changan Automobile is not benefiting from technology, but suffering from it. Therefore, the efforts made by Changan Automobile in recent years are not too little, but "too much".Changan has almost revealed all its Qiyuan, Deep Blue and Avita models, plus the transformation of Lumin and CS and UNI series to new energy. It seems that Changan really "wants to make progress too much".However, the large and comprehensive structure does make it difficult for Changan Automobile to fully control and balance the transformation and development of so many brands at the same time.On the other hand, Geely is more scientific in these aspects.When Geely's Emgrand and Geometry were basically seen as exclusive products for the travel market, Geely quickly realized this and thenGeely GalaxyIts launch fully meets the needs of the popular private market.Please note that Galaxy is still "Geely Galaxy", which means that Galaxy has not differentiated its resources and is still under the Geely brand.As the only new energy brand created by Geely in recent years,ZeekrIt has raised a banner in terms of performance, personalization, youthfulness and high-end.The Lynk & Co brand, which started out as a fuel vehicle brand, focuses on a smooth transformation, with new energy and fuel vehicles coexisting in parallel, trying its best to maintain the brand's proper tone.
It is safe to say that the fluctuations in Changan Automobile’s sales are by no means accidental.It is a concrete manifestation of Changan Automobile's new energy transformation entering a bottleneck period. Generally speaking, its sales volume will not increase, nor will it fall sharply. This will make Changan Automobile uncomfortable for a while.Where is the breakthrough point?Maybe it is Avita. If Avita really takes off, it means that all of Changan Automobile’s technological accumulation has been recognized by the market.These technologies can be decentralized, simplified, and flexibly applied to Deep Blue and Qiyuan.BYDLike the cloud chariot.Fortunately, Changan Automobile has no shortage of money or technical background, and can afford it. In addition, with the support of its base of fuel vehicles and commercial vehicles, it has enough time to make adjustments.Changan Automobile is still the Changan Automobile worth looking forward to.
