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Direct News:The U.S. presidential election will officially begin in less than three months. What are your observations on the current election situation?

Special commentator Liu Heping:Obviously, this US presidential election has been full of twists and turns, very exciting and dramatic. In the early days, the polls between Biden and Trump were very close, showing a trend of alternating leads. However, after the first debate between Biden and Trump, especially after Trump was shot, the balance of victory has completely tilted in Trump's direction, showing a trend of being able to win without any effort.

However, after Biden suddenly announced his withdrawal from the election and Harris was appointed in a critical situation, the situation reversed again. According to the latest polls, although Trump still has one percentage point more than Harris in the overall national polls, Harris's polls have reversed and surpassed Trump in at least five key "swing states." Since the results of the U.S. presidential election are not determined by the total number of voters, but by the number of electoral votes in each state, insiders should understand that the overall vote rate is actually not very meaningful, and the key "swing states" are the weight that determines the outcome. From this perspective, Trump, who originally thought he could win, is currently in an extremely unfavorable and even precarious situation.

So, what exactly caused this dramatic result? I personally tend to think that this is actually the result of Trump's own stupidity and shooting himself in the foot.

First of all, we know that Trump's election situation suddenly took a sharp turn for the worse after Biden was forced to announce his withdrawal from the election and Harris was appointed in a critical situation. In essence, it was not the political bigwigs of the Democratic Party who forced Biden to withdraw from the election, but Trump himself. It was precisely because Trump targeted Biden's age issue in the election, or Biden's so-called "old and stupid", and pursued it relentlessly, that the Democratic Party from top to bottom developed a sense of crisis that "Biden must be replaced."

Once Harris, who is 20 years younger than Trump, took office, Trump's original age advantage over Biden became his biggest disadvantage. Now it is Harris' turn to play the "age card". At the same time, all the "bombs" prepared by Trump to attack Biden have become "blanks". I think it is for this reason that Trump attacked the Democratic Party's change of leadership at the last minute as a coup when talking to Musk, which shows that he is extremely upset and regretful about it.

Secondly, Trump was overwhelmed by the good situation after the shooting, so that he underestimated the enemy and was too careless. After he was in an absolute lead in the polls, Trump mistakenly believed that he could easily defeat Biden by his own strength, and the so-called running mate was just an unnecessary foil. It was under such circumstances that Trump followed the advice of his youngest son and chose Vance, who was like himself, not only in his extreme right political orientation, but also in his outspoken and thoughtless speech, to serve as his deputy. As a result, Vance's several very extreme speeches offended a considerable number of female voters in the United States.

Special commentator Liu Heping:In fact, in this election campaign, Trump has been attacking Harris as a "far leftist", while Harris has been attacking Trump as a "far rightist". I think the attacks of these two people on each other are justified. In this case, in order to win the support of the majority of voters, especially the middle voters, both sides should adopt a strategy of learning from each other's strengths and weaknesses when choosing running mates, and try to choose people with a political stance that leans towards the middle to be their running mates, so as to win as many moderate voters as possible.

However, what is surprising is that Trump chose Vance, who is even more right-wing than himself, while Harris chose Waltz, who is equally left-wing as herself. This not only means that Trump and Harris have further chosen to go to extremes in the struggle over American ideology and lifestyle, but also means that this US presidential election is actually a battle between the Democratic and Republican bases. The latest poll results also reflect such a trend, with 94% of Democratic supporters expressing support for Harris and 93% of Republican supporters expressing support for Trump. In other words, the bases of both parties have fully returned to the team and are ready for a "camp confrontation."

In this case, to judge whether Trump or Harris will win, we must first look at which party has a larger base. In this respect, I think Harris has a slightly stronger advantage than Trump, because in the United States today, there are more people who hold open and progressive views on religious beliefs and lifestyles, especially young people and intellectuals. On the highly controversial issue of abortion rights in the United States, the Democratic Party, which advocates allowing women to have abortions, has won widespread support from female voters. On the contrary, in terms of religious beliefs and lifestyles, although there is also a strong conservative force in the United States, its momentum is not as strong as that of progressivism.

Direct News:In your opinion, the current domestic and international situation in the United States and the poll results are all favorable to the Democratic Party and Harris. Does this mean that Harris can win the next game?

Special commentator Liu Heping:I don't think so. Although Harris is currently in high spirits and even appears to be suppressing Trump, to be honest, this is not mainly due to Harris's personal charm and personal achievements, but based on two major situations: first, the Democratic Party's base is stronger than the Republican Party's base; second, due to Trump's many absurd practices during his four years in office, too many American voters are worried or even afraid of Trump's comeback. In other words, at least in the short term, it is the time and situation that made Harris successful.

How long this situation can last, and whether it can last until the official vote, I think there is still a big question mark. Harris' main problem at present is that, first, during her four-year term as vice president, she not only has no achievements to show for herself, but also has no sense of existence. Moreover, the border and immigration issues that she was responsible for during her tenure have become a big stain on Biden and the Democratic Party. Second, not only does she have no achievements, but Harris has no political views and platforms of her own so far, and the outside world does not know what her domestic and foreign policies are. Harris' campaign team also seems to be carefully protecting her, so that she has not accepted formal interviews with the American media so far, and has not systematically expressed her political views and platforms.

There is a Chinese saying that goes, "An ugly wife must eventually meet the father-in-law." Whether a daughter-in-law is beautiful or ugly, she will eventually meet her parents-in-law. In this case, the first televised debate between Harris and Trump in early September is particularly important. It will become the most important window for the outside world to understand Harris's political views, personal level and ability.