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Text/Chen Xiang

Editor/Qi Fei

The Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has slowed down, with no significant progress made in the past day.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serski, reported on the evening of August 16 that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued to advance 1 to 3 kilometers in different directions in Kursk Oblast that day, and the fighting on the entire front line was still going on. Serski also mentioned that several more Russian soldiers were captured, and the military commander's office set up by the Ukrainian army in the local area has begun to work, which has enabled the logistics support system to run smoothly.

On August 16, Ukrainian presidential adviser Podolak wrote on the communication platform Telegram: "We need to inflict a major tactical defeat on Russia... In the Kursk region, we clearly see how military tools are objectively used to persuade the Russian Federation to enter into a fair negotiation process." Podolak had previously admitted that Kiev had discussed the Ukrainian army's plan to attack Kursk with the United States, Britain and others.

At the same time, the Russian army is rushing to build fortifications. Recruitment websites show that the Russian government is recruiting a large number of workers, including excavator operators and inexperienced laborers, with a monthly salary of at least $2,500.

In an interview with Russian media on August 16, Apti Alaudinov, deputy director of the Main Directorate of Military and Political Work of the Russian Armed Forces, denied Ukraine's claim that it had occupied Sudja in Kursk Oblast, and said that the Russian army was clearing out Ukrainian troops in several villages in the province.

The Russian Ministry of Defense also announced the establishment of a border region military security coordination committee covering Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions, with the aim of providing the troops defending the border regions with the necessary weapons, military equipment, special equipment, strike means and logistical support materials. The Russian newspaper Izvestia said on August 16 that Russia has set up many roadblocks at key nodes in the Kursk region. Russian troops are moving to the region and they are forming an assault group.

Even if the Ukrainian army captures Ligov along the highway, there are still three towns to be conquered before they can reach Kursk, the capital of Kursk Oblast. It is a large city with a population of 440,000 and is one of the main railway hubs in southwestern Russia. At present, the Ukrainian army is not capable of taking it. It is very likely that after the Ukrainian army detected that there were no weak points in the Russian defense line, they simply built fortifications on the spot. If the Russian army wants to drive the Ukrainian army out, it needs to invest an astonishing amount of military resources, which is difficult for Russia to organize at present.

The Ukrainian army's surprise attack on Kursk had multiple purposes, one of which was to relieve the pressure on the eastern front. But at present, this goal has not been achieved.

Analysts at the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed out that the Russian army has mobilized 11 battalions to rush to Kursk. Even so, the Russian army still prioritizes maintaining a high-pressure and sustained offensive rhythm in the east. In the past few days, the Russian army has been implementing a tactical encirclement of the Ukrainian army in the southeast of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast.

Geolocation videos released on August 14 and 15 show that Russian troops are advancing in Hrodivka, east of Pokrovsk, and Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, and Orlivka, southeast of Pokrovsk. The Institute of War Studies assesses that Russian troops may have occupied the villages of Zhelanne and Orlivka.

It is obvious that the Russian army is determined to capture Pokrovsk. This city with a population of 60,000 was called Red Army Village during the Soviet era and is one of the railway hubs in Donetsk Oblast. The Russian army launched a large-scale offensive against it in July this year, with fierce artillery fire. Serski shouted that the Russian army fired 12,000 shells a day, while the Ukrainian army only fired 2,000 to 4,000.

Many voices in Ukraine pointed out with concern that the Ukrainian army's short-term brilliant victory in the Kursk direction overshadowed the increasingly bad situation in Pokrovsk. Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian army's shortage of personnel, the attack on Kursk would worsen the already bad situation of the Ukrainian army on other fronts.