The central bank has released the latest signal regarding the bond market, property market and monetary policy →
2024-08-12
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On August 9, the People's Bank of China released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter of 2024" (hereinafter referred to as the Report), summarizing the implementation of monetary policy in the first half of the year and giving the main ideas for monetary policy in the next stage.
Industry insiders believe that since the beginning of this year, in order to support the economic recovery, the central bank has successively introduced three rounds of major combination policies in terms of monetary policy, which effectively reflects counter-cyclical regulation.
Monetary policy easing space opens up
The report continued the spirit of the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee at the end of July.It is believed that "domestic effective demand is insufficient and economic operations are showing signs of differentiation" and that monetary policy should "strengthen countercyclical regulation."
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that the report focuses on the three major directions of "promoting reform, stabilizing growth, and preventing risks", and pays attention to the relationship between "balancing the short-term and long-term, stabilizing growth and preventing risks, internal equilibrium and external equilibrium", and will become a weather vane for guiding financial support for entities and influencing market trends in the next stage.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Markets Department of China Everbright Bank, said:Judging from the content of the report, the tone of monetary policy remains continuous and consistent, and the prudent monetary policy continues to maintain a relatively proactive orientation, providing strong support for the recovery of the real economy.At present, insufficient effective demand in the domestic economy remains the main contradiction. It is expected that the central bank will not only implement the previous policy measures, but also maintain a reasonable level of liquidity, coordinate with the proactive fiscal policy, and guide financial institutions to make balanced credit allocations to better balance the relationships of stabilizing growth, preventing risks, adjusting structure, and balancing internal and external factors.
In Zhou Maohua's view, the subsequent increase and selection of domestic monetary policy quantitative and price tools will need to depend on the domestic macro-economy, price recovery trends, the pace of real estate recovery, and changes in market liquidity, and effectively prevent potential risks of excessively low prices and excessive liquidity.
Remind again of bond market risks
In the report, the risks of bond assets and bond-type wealth management products received special attention.
On the one hand, the central bank pointed out that it would conduct stress tests on the risk exposure of financial institutions' bond assets to prevent interest rate risks; on the other hand,This report explains the connotation of net value management through a column article "The Impact of the Net Value Mechanism of Asset Management Products on Public Investors" and reminds investors to carefully evaluate the investment risks and returns of asset management products.
Wen Bin believes thaton the one handThe central bank once again warned of the risk of a correction in the bond market, as long-term bond interest rates have deviated from the reasonable central level. Combined with the statement in the report that "stress testing is carried out on the risk exposure of financial institutions' bond assets to prevent interest rate risks", as well as the recent guidance of the central bank on the sale of bonds by large banks and the launch of self-discipline investigations on the concentrated bond purchases of rural commercial banks in some regions, the central bank will further strengthen supervision on institutional bond allocation and interest rate curve adjustments in the future.on the other hand, aims to emphasize that asset management products have both returns and risks and that rigid redemption no longer exists, guide investors to lower their return expectations, focus on risk matching, and avoid continued irrational outflows of bank deposits and the resulting systemic risks.
"In the future, the central bank and financial regulatory authorities do not rule out the possibility of continuing to use methods such as expectation management, window guidance, buying and selling of treasury bonds, and regulatory constraints to reduce interest rate risks, timely correct and block the accumulation of financial market risks, and prevent the further strengthening of unilateral expectations of interest rates." Wen Bin said.
China Merchants Securities Research Report believes that although the central bank has increased its attention to long-term bond interest rate risks, this does not mean that the monetary policy stance will be tightened.The supportive stance of monetary policy will not change.
Support the destocking of existing commercial housing
In terms of real estate, the report emphasized, "We will focus on promoting the implementation of the financial policies and measures that have been issued, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market", "increase the construction and supply of affordable housing", and "increase financial support for housing rental."
It is worth noting that the central bank pointed out in the column article "Supporting the Sustainable Development of the Housing Rental Industry" in the report thatIn the next stage, we must continue to give full play to the role of supporting policies in promoting the housing rental industry and improve the financial support system for housing rental.At the same time, we should fully mobilize the enthusiasm of market-oriented institutions and establish a sustainable business model through more social capital investment.Support the destocking of existing commercial housing, helping to promote the transformation and development of the real estate industry.
Wu Chaoming, deputy director of Caixin Research Institute, said:It is expected that future policies will focus on unblocking the bottlenecks in the government's acquisition of existing commercial housing and improving and optimizing relevant supporting policies., such as using financial subsidies to reduce storage costs, expanding the scope of storage entities, and relaxing requirements for the area of affordable housing, to promote the implementation of existing policies as soon as possible.
Wen Bin believes that from the follow-up point of view,Compared with the total amount, there is still much room for the balance of affordable housing re-loans to be expanded, and further efforts are needed to stimulate the market.In addition, the housing rental industry is an important direction for the future new real estate development model. Diversified investment and financing channels for the housing rental industry need to be further expanded, such as expanding the bond financing channels for housing rental companies and steadily developing real estate investment trust funds.
China Business News is compiled from China Fund News, Securities Daily, and National Business Daily
