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On August 5, the global financial market collapsed, with A-shares performing the best. Will A-shares become a "safe haven" for global funds in the future?

On the same day, Hong Hao, chief economist of Si Rui Group, shared his views on the current market in a program.


The representative of this lesson sorted out the key points of investment homework as follows:

1. We seeThe huge contradiction in the market narrative，If you think the U.S. is going to go into recession, you can’t buy any stocks…

2. Liquidity has decreased, and the price in China is so cheap, how should the money go?Definitely should come back.。

3. After the dividend is paid in June, it mayIn September, the high dividend sector will have another wave (market conditions).

Hong Hao pointed out that we should be prepared for funds to return to China and find good targets. As for when the market will start, Hong Hao previously said that there will be two waves of A-shares in a year.At the turn of the third and fourth quarters, we may see a very good market trend.。

Regarding the panic-induced "Black Monday", Hong Hao believes that this is just a market rotation and does not agree that the United States has entered a recession.

Northeast SecuritiesChief Economist Fu Peng also pointed out that the market fluctuations in the past two days were caused by high-leverage liquidation. This kind of high-volatility market is generally not highly correlated with the economy, and the market had already shown signs of this in June.

Specifically, the market structure at that time had shown the characteristics of shrinking circle, was extremely crowded, and increasingly concentrated in the leading companies (the core of new money configuration is artificial intelligence). Under low volatility, the market was extremely crowded at the top, which easily caused many people to increase leverage.

This kind of leverage behavior will eventually lead to some unexpected events, and this unexpected event started in early June and has now reached its climax.

I don't recognize the US recession, the market is now rotating

We sawThe huge contradiction in the market narrativeIf you think the US is going to go into recession, you can’t buy any stocks. Small-cap stocks are the most dangerous because more than half of the stocks in the Russell index have no earnings. If there is a recession, won’t the junk companies you bought fall even more? They will definitely all go back to zero.

So we think,The market is now in a rotation rather than a risk off, so its trend does not match the so-called recession.

If the U.S. is in recession, you don't need to buy stocks. You can just buy gold, U.S. bonds, and U.S. dollars. But you find that the U.S. dollar is falling.

So this trend is inconsistent.

As for whether Hong Kong stocks will benefit, it is actually a question, it is a rotation issue.

Will it come back from developed markets such as Japan to the Hong Kong market? If we think it is not a recession, then it will definitely come back.

If it is a recession, then there is nothing we can do, we just need to sell off our stocks. But from our discussion just now, we do not think it is a recession, so I think it will come back.

But in the short term, after all, if you look at the massive sell-off in Japan, it is hard not to be affected by emotions and volatility. After all, if you are a trader, it is hard not to be affected by these sell-offs.

Therefore, we can see that it is obvious that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks could not escape the impact of this wave, but you can see that their performance is far more stable than that of U.S. and Japanese stocks.

Liquidity is getting smaller, prices are getting cheaper, and logically the money should go back to China

If it is a wheel, so where should this money be rotated to?

If this money is to come out of the overvalued sector or overvalued market,Previously, the price-to-earnings ratio of Japan's Nikkei index should be more than 20 times, Hong Kong's is 8 times, and A-shares are about the same. So you say that liquidity has decreased, and when it is so cheap in China, how should this money go?

Yes, I think we should definitely come back. In addition, I think we were underperforming by a large margin before, so logically speaking,The money should return to our A shares and Hong Kong stocks.

Find a good target and wait for the wave to come

(When will the funds come back?) I certainly hope that the battle ends today and we start (rising). But I think this is wishful thinking.

This transaction is just like surfing. You have to wait for your wave to rise before you stand on the surfboard, otherwise you just lie on your stomach. So for now, we are still lying on our stomachs.

But I also said at the beginning,We should find the target well so that when we see the wave coming, we can be prepared.

There may be another wave of high dividends in September

I think after the dividend is paid in June,Maybe in September, there will be another wave of high dividend stocks。

Tech stocks are very cheap and I don't see any big problems.

evenIn the consumption downgrade, many platform-type companies are particularly good targets.。

I have been spending more time in the mainland recently, and I have personally experienced the price advantage on the platform, which is amazing. It is much cheaper than Hong Kong, etc. So if you say consumption is downgrading, then yes, consumption downgrading means you buy cheaper things.

The domestic tourism market is very hot. Today we saw China's Caixin Services PMI for July was 52.1, which exceeded expectations. This also shows that although the manufacturing industry seems to have some problems in the economy, it is generally more stable than you think.

source:Investment Workbook Pro Author class representative